Load context
On first use: Read ../../CLAUDE.md to obtain scenario-level configuration (fund planning cycle/financing configuration/bank credit).
/cash-flow-forecasting — Cash Flow Forecasting
Examples
→ Example: The user says "Help me forecast cash flow for the next 3 months and see if there is a funding gap." The system should invoke this skill and execute a 3-month cash flow forecast.
→ Example: The user says "A large debt matures next month. Help me check whether the money in the account is enough to repay it." The system should invoke this skill to assess the funding coverage capacity for maturing debt.
→ Example: The user says "The supplier says we are paying more and more slowly. Help us forecast when cash flow will improve." The system should invoke this skill to forecast cash flow improvement in combination with changes in payment policy.
Forecasting Method Description
滚动预测：每月更新，滚动预测未来 3 个月
情景分析：乐观/基准/悲观三情景
数据来源：历史数据 + 当月实际 + 下月计划 + 已知大额进出
Step 1: Collect Basic Data
Obtain historical data from [ERP] (past 3 months):
□ 月均收入：[XXX万]
□ 月均支出：[XXX万]
□ 月均净流量：[XXX万]
□ 收入波动性：[X%]（标准差/均值）
□ 支出波动性：[X%]
Obtain known large inflows and outflows from [ERP]/[OA]:
□ 已确定大额支出（未来 3 个月）：
- 银行贷款到期：[XXX万] — [月份]
- 供应商大额付款：[XXX万] — [月份]
- 税款缴纳：[XXX万] — [月份]
□ 已确定大额收入（未来 3 个月）：
- 大客户回款：[XXX万] — [月份]
- 融资到账：[XXX万] — [月份]
- 其他确定收入：[XXX万] — [月份]
Obtain budget data from [BK]:
□ 下月预算支出：[XXX万]
□ 下月预算收入：[XXX万]
□ 下月预算净流量：[XXX万]
Step 2: Build the Forecast Model
Baseline scenario (most likely to occur):
| Month | Opening Balance | Expected Inflow | Expected Outflow | Net Cash Flow | Ending Balance | |------|-------|---------|---------|--------|--------|---------| | Month 1 | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | | Month 2 | [carried over from previous month] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | | Month 3 | [carried over from previous month] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] |
Optimistic scenario (revenue higher than expected/expenses lower than expected):
| Month | Opening Balance | Optimistic Inflow | Optimistic Outflow | Net Cash Flow | Ending Balance | |------|-------|---------|---------|--------|--------|---------| | Month 1 | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | | Month 2 | [carried over from previous month] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | | Month 3 | [carried over from previous month] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] |
Pessimistic scenario (revenue lower than expected/expenses higher than expected):
| Month | Opening Balance | Pessimistic Inflow | Pessimistic Outflow | Net Cash Flow | Ending Balance | |------|-------|---------|---------|--------|--------|---------| | Month 1 | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | | Month 2 | [carried over from previous month] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | | Month 3 | [carried over from previous month] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] |
Step 3: Identify Funding Gaps
Gap timing analysis:
□ 基准情景：
第一个缺口月份：[月份]
缺口金额：[XXX万]
持续时间：[X] 个月
累计最大缺口：[XXX万]
□ 悲观情景：
第一个缺口月份：[月份]
缺口金额：[XXX万]
持续时间：[X] 个月
累计最大缺口：[XXX万]
□ 乐观情景：
是否出现缺口：[是/否]
→ 如有，描述：[...]
Gap cause analysis:
□ 季节性因素：
- [描述，如：春节前付款集中]
□ 大额固定支出：
- 银行贷款到期：[月份] — [XXX万]
- 税款缴纳：[月份] — [XXX万]
- [其他大额支出]
□ 收入延迟风险：
- 大客户回款可能延迟：[客户名称]
- 可能延迟金额：[XXX万]
- 延迟概率：[X%]
Step 4: Assess Financing Needs
Financing gap size:
□ 基准情景融资需求：[XXX万]
□ 悲观情景融资需求：[XXX万]
□ 建议融资规模（保守）：[XXX万]
Financing source assessment:
| Financing Source | Available Limit | Expected Availability | Cost | Applicable Scenario | |---------|---------|---------|------|------|---------| | Bank working capital loan | [XXX万] | [X] days | [X%/year] | Baseline/Pessimistic | | Bank acceptance | [XXX万] | [X] days | [X%/year] | Baseline/Pessimistic | | Existing credit | [XXX万] | Immediately | — | Optimistic |
Financing schedule:
□ 须在 [月份] 前启动融资申请
□ 融资金额建议：[XXX万]
□ 融资类型建议：[流贷/银承/组合]
□ 建议银行：[银行名称]
Step 5: Generate the Cash Flow Forecast Report
═══════════════════════════════════════
现金流滚动预测报告
预测周期：[YYYY-MM 至 YYYY+MM]
编制日期：[YYYY-MM-DD]
═══════════════════════════════════════
【当前资金状况】
□ 当前账户余额合计：[XXX万]
□ 月均运营资金需求：[XXX万]
□ 可支撑运营月数：[X] 个月
【三情景预测】
1. 乐观情景（收入+20%/支出-10%）：
月份 | 期初余额 | 流入 | 流出 | 净流量 | 期末余额
-----|---------|------|------|-------|--------
[月1] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万]
[月2] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万]
[月3] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万]
2. 基准情景（最可能）：
月份 | 期初余额 | 流入 | 流出 | 净流量 | 期末余额
-----|---------|------|------|-------|--------
[月1] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万]
[月2] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万]
[月3] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万]
3. 悲观情景（收入-20%/支出+10%）：
月份 | 期初余额 | 流入 | 流出 | 净流量 | 期末余额
-----|---------|------|-------|-------|--------
[月1] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万]
[月2] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万]
[月3] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万] | [XXX万]
【缺口分析】
□ 乐观情景缺口：[无/有 — XXX万 — 月份]
□ 基准情景缺口：[无/有 — XXX万 — 月份]
□ 悲观情景缺口：[无/有 — XXX万 — 月份]
第一个资金缺口：
- 时间：[月份]
- 金额：[XXX万]
- 情景：[乐观/基准/悲观]
- 原因：[...]
【融资计划建议】
□ 建议融资规模：[XXX万]（保守估算）
□ 最低融资规模：[XXX万]（仅覆盖悲观情景）
融资来源：
□ 银行流动资金贷款：[XXX万]
- 建议银行：[银行名称]
- 预计利率：[X%]
- 预计到位：[X] 个工作日
□ 银行承兑汇票：[XXX万]
- 适用于：大额供应商付款
- 成本：[X%]
□ 使用现有授信：[XXX万]
- 须立即启用
【风险管理建议】
□ 加速催收应收款：
- 目标客户：[客户名称]
- 目标金额：[XXX万]
- 预计回款：[日期]
□ 协商延后大额支出：
- 目标供应商：[供应商名称]
- 延后金额：[XXX万]
- 延后至：[日期]
□ 备用融资渠道：
- 备用银行：[银行名称]
- 备用额度：[XXX万]
【下月更新计划】
□ 下月重新预测日期：[YYYY-MM-DD]
□ 下月关注事项：
- [大客户回款情况]
- [银行贷款到期]
- [融资申请进度]
═══════════════════════════════════════
编制人：[资金专员/资金主管]
审核人：[资金主管/财务经理]
下次更新：[YYYY-MM-DD]
═══════════════════════════════════════
Upgrade trigger conditions
- A funding gap emerges under the pessimistic scenario > [fill in: e.g., 2 million]
- A funding gap occurs for 2 consecutive months under the baseline scenario
- New financing required > [fill in: e.g., 5 million]
- Bank credit line is insufficient to cover the gap
Finance Skills — cash-flow-forecasting atomic skill