Fourth step. Quantitatively estimate the market selected in step 3 (and if needed — top-3 for cross-checking the Size criterion). Implements Viktor's TAM-SAM-SOM framework: we calculate і top-down, і bottom-up, then cross-check. No gate.
Read ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/reference/agency-stages.md (TAM section). Input — step 03 (market + tiers +
ICP) from Notion.
⚠️ Main rule
TAM = spend on the agency's SERVICE (e.g. on AI automation/voice), and NOT the size of the end market of
clients. Mistake: taking "$600B home services" as TAM. Correct: # target firms × річний спенд на наш тип рішення.
Reuse
market-research-edp(this pack) /niche-data-finder(outbound-engine-skills), if installed, +WebSearchfor sources (number of firms, market reports, ARPU). Every number — with a link; where there is none — mark "estimate, verify".- Optionally fill in Viktor's Google template (TAM_SAM_SOM_Template) with a copy — on request.
Two methods (calculate both)
Top-down: take public market data → cut off the irrelevant with filters (geo, size, % that buy
our type of solution, % serviceable, % obtainable). Sources: IBISWorld / Census CBP / Statista / industry reports.
Bottom-up: # таргет-акаунтів × річний чек (from the tiers of step 3). SOM — from real capacity
(how many deals the team of the stage will close in 1-3 years × ACV).
Order: top-down from TAM downward; bottom-up from SOM upward. Then cross-check the pairs and explain the discrepancies (bottom-up is usually more modest).
Breakdown by tiers
Calculate SAM/SOM by Tier 1/2/3 (from step 3), because ACV and % obtainable differ per tier. For Stage 0-1 concentrate SOM in the starting tiers (2-3), Tier 1 — outside near-term SOM.
Stage-adaptive depth
- Stage 0: lite — bottom-up sanity-check (whether the market is sufficient at all:
#firms × ACV) + rough SOM = realistic target for 1 year. TAM/SAM — in one line. Don't dig in. - Stage 1: full top-down + bottom-up TAM/SAM/SOM, cross-check.
- Stage 2: + breakdown by size bands/tiers (advanced template model) + several sources (average).
- Stage 3-4: + multi-geo + 3-5y growth projection (CAGR) + intent-data layer.
Output (Notion)
Sub-page «04 · Market Sizing (TAM-SAM-SOM)»: TAM/SAM/SOM table × (top-down | bottom-up) + breakdown by tiers + assumptions/filters with sources + conclusion "is the market sufficient + where to focus". "Sources / assumptions" block. In Ukrainian.
Definition of Done
- TAM/SAM/SOM calculated by two methods and reconciled (difference explained).
- TAM = spend on the agency's service (not the end market) — verified.
- SAM/SOM broken down by tiers; SOM focus corresponds to the stage.
- Every key input has a source or an explicit "estimate, to verify" marker.
- Conclusion: is the market sufficient for the goals? where to concentrate SOM? Notion page created.