Most analysis stops at first-order consequences: the immediate, obvious results. A futures wheel pushes past that. The change goes at the center; first-order consequences radiate around it; each of those spawns second-order consequences ("and then what?"); then third-order. The structure forces attention onto the downstream and cross-domain ripples that linear thinking skips, and flags the branches worth a response. The output is a consequence map. For a quick pass, a lightweight "second-order effects" mode runs only the first-to-second step.
When to Use
- A decision or change has knock-on effects that play out over time.
- First-order analysis is missing downstream risks or opportunities.
- Scanning the systemic side effects of a new idea before committing.
When NOT to Use
- Simple, linear situations with no meaningful higher-order effects.
- When you need to decide, not explore (hand the map to a decision skill).
- When the result would be branches to irrelevance rather than a focused map.
Instructions
When asked to build a futures wheel, follow these steps:
- Center it. State the change or decision at the middle, in one line.
- First order. List the immediate, direct consequences. Span domains (technical, financial, customer, team, competitive), not just the obvious one.
- Second order. For each meaningful first-order effect, ask "and then what happens?" and add its consequences.
- Third order. For the branches that still matter, extend one more step. Stop a branch when it goes trivial.
- Flag the branches that matter. Mark the high-impact or non-obvious consequences, and add a one-line "watch or do about it" for each.
- Emit the consequence map per
references/TEMPLATE.md.
Output Format
Use the template in references/TEMPLATE.md. The deliverable is the nested consequence map with flagged branches, not prose.
Quality Checklist
Before finalizing, verify:
- The map reaches at least second order; it does not stop at first-order.
- First-order effects span multiple domains, not just the obvious one.
- Branches that go trivial are pruned, not padded.
- The high-impact or non-obvious branches are flagged with a response note.
- Branches are presented as possible ripples to watch, not predictions.
- The output is the consequence map artifact, not prose.
Evidence
Tier P. The futures wheel is an established foresight method (Glenn, 1971; used in foresight practice and documented in primers such as UNICEF's 2025 guidance), valued for pushing analysis beyond first-order consequences. Its validation is qualitative; it does not predict the future, so branches are structured speculation, not probabilities. Evidence is transferred from human foresight practice, not AI-validated. Full grading: evidence/dossier.md.
Examples
See references/EXAMPLE.md for a completed consequence map.