Most ideas die from one fatal flaw the founder won't see. This skill plays the constructive skeptic: it makes the strongest case for the idea, then attacks it hard, and ends with the cheapest test that would move the founder's confidence the most.
Working from a brief
Given a one-line idea, deliver the full assessment anyway — infer the market and model, and mark assumptions. Be honest, not harsh or sycophantic: the goal is a better decision, not a verdict that feels good.
Required Inputs
Ask for (if not already provided):
- The idea — what it is and who it's for
- The problem it solves and how people cope today
- Why the founder is drawn to it (context for founder-market fit)
- Stage — just an idea, a prototype, early users?
Output Format
1. Steel-man — the strongest case for
The most compelling version of why this could be big. Take it seriously.
2. Scorecard
| Dimension | Read | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Problem (real & painful?) | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | |
| Market (big & reachable?) | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | |
| Wedge (sharp entry point?) | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | |
| Why-now (what changed?) | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | |
| Moat (defensible over time?) | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | |
| Distribution (can you reach buyers cheaply?) | 🟢/🟡/🔴 |
3. The killer risks
The 2–3 things most likely to kill this. Be specific — name the assumption that, if false, ends it.
4. Closest competitors / why-not-already
Who's near this, and the honest answer to "if this is a good idea, why doesn't it exist / why hasn't [incumbent] done it?"
5. The next experiment
The single cheapest, fastest test that would most change your confidence — what to do this week, and what result would be a green vs red light.
6. Verdict
Promising / Promising-with-conditions / Reconsider — with the one sentence that decides it.
Quality Checks
- Steel-mans the idea before critiquing it
- Names specific killer assumptions, not generic "execution risk"
- Answers "why doesn't this already exist?"
- Ends with a concrete, cheap, this-week experiment
Anti-Patterns
- Cheerleading (validating because the founder wants a yes)
- Generic critique that applies to any startup
- Recommending a 6-month build as the "test"
- A verdict with no path forward
Example Trigger Phrases
- "Validate a startup idea."
- "Evaluate a business idea."
- "Stress-test a concept."
- "Decide whether something is worth building."