Frameworks for achieving and measuring product-market fit.
Related Skills
pm-assumption-mapping- Prioritizing assumptions by riskpm-customer-interviews- Discovery interview techniquespm-jobs-to-be-done- Understanding customer motivations
Side project, hackathon, or learning exercise? Use brainstorming instead. This skill is for ideas where demand validation matters.
Modes
Choose one. If unclear, ask.
| Mode | When | Path |
|---|---|---|
pressure-test |
Founder wants brutal verdict in minutes, no research | Use Pressure Test Mode below, stop |
full |
Founder is serious, willing to do interrogation + research | Run Pressure Test Mode, then Phase 0 onward |
customer-finder |
Idea passed, needs first 10 named buyers | Skip to Pressure Test Mode → First 10 Customer Moves |
mvp-plan |
Idea passed, needs the smallest test | Skip to Pressure Test Mode → 2-Week MVP Test |
Pressure Test Mode
Fast LLM-only diagnosis. No research, no interviews. Goal: kill weak ideas before founder wastes weeks.
Required Input
If missing, ask once and stop:
Send the idea, target customer, and what you want them to do or pay for.
Operating Rules
- Verdict must be one of:
strong,weak,pivot required. No softening, no encouragement padding. - Every fatal flaw must be specific to this idea, not generic startup risks.
- Core assumption must be testable this week, not after building.
- Competitors include the status quo (spreadsheet, manual workflow, doing nothing).
- First 10 customer moves must name channels and humans, not categories.
- 2-week MVP test must produce a kill-or-continue signal, not vanity metrics.
Output Template
Produce these sections in order. Skip none. Keep each section tight.
VERDICT: <strong | weak | pivot required>
ONE-LINE REASON: <single sentence, no hedging>
SCORECARD (1-10 each):
- Problem severity:
- Willingness to pay:
- Wedge clarity:
- Founder-market fit:
- Competition vulnerability:
CORE ASSUMPTION:
<the single belief that must be true; testable this week>
FATAL FLAWS (ranked):
1. <flaw> — why it kills the idea
2. <flaw> — why it kills the idea
3. <flaw> — why it kills the idea
(Include only real flaws. Do not pad to hit a count.)
PROBLEM REALITY:
- Current behavior: <what target user does today, even badly>
- Workaround cost: <hours, dollars, headcount, risk>
- Pain level: <acute / chronic / nice-to-have>
REAL COMPETITION:
- Direct: <named alternatives>
- Status quo: <the spreadsheet/manual/duct-taped workflow>
- Switching cost: <what blocks the switch>
FIRST 10 CUSTOMER MOVES:
- Name 5 specific humans or roles to contact this week
- Name 3 channels where they already gather
- Name 2 messages that match their language
2-WEEK MVP TEST:
- Smallest shippable thing: <one feature, days to build>
- Manual stand-in: <what to fake before building>
- Kill signal: <result that ends the idea>
- Continue signal: <result that earns next 2 weeks>
Verdict Routing
| Verdict | Next Step |
|---|---|
strong |
Run Phase 0 only on flagged weak scorecard items, then go build the 2-Week MVP |
weak |
Stop. Use idea-generation to find a stronger angle |
pivot required |
Hold the customer + pain, change the wedge. Re-run Pressure Test Mode on the pivot |
Phase 0: Demand Interrogation
Before testing assumptions, expose whether real demand exists. Ask these questions one at a time. Push on each until the answer is specific, evidence-based, and uncomfortable.
Route by Stage
| Stage | Questions to Ask |
|---|---|
| Pre-product | Q1, Q2, Q3 |
| Has users | Q2, Q4, Q5 |
| Has paying customers | Q4, Q5, Q6 |
Skip questions already answered by earlier responses.
Operating Principles
- Specificity is the only currency. "Enterprises in healthcare" is not a customer. You need a name, a role, a company, a reason.
- Interest is not demand. Waitlists, signups, "that's interesting" — none count. Behavior counts. Money counts. Panic when it breaks counts.
- The status quo is the real competitor. Not the other startup — the spreadsheet-and-Slack workaround they already live with.
- Narrow beats wide, early. The smallest version someone will pay for this week beats the full platform vision.
The Six Forcing Questions
Q1: Demand Reality
"What's the strongest evidence someone actually wants this — not 'is interested,' but would be genuinely upset if it disappeared tomorrow?"
Push until you hear specific behavior: someone paying, expanding usage, building workflow around it, scrambling if it vanished.
Red flags: "People say it's interesting." "500 waitlist signups." "VCs are excited."
After the first answer, check: Are key terms defined and measurable? What does the framing take for granted? Is evidence real or hypothetical?
Q2: Status Quo
"What are your users doing right now to solve this — even badly? What does that workaround cost them?"
Push until you hear a specific workflow: hours spent, dollars wasted, tools duct-taped together, people hired to do it manually.
Red flags: "Nothing — no solution exists." If no one does anything about it, the problem probably isn't painful enough.
Q3: Desperate Specificity
"Name the actual human who needs this most. Title? What gets them promoted? What gets them fired? What keeps them up at night?"
Push until you hear a name, a role, a specific consequence they face. Match the consequence to the domain — B2B: career impact. Consumer: daily pain. Developer tools: the weekend project that gets unblocked.
Red flags: Category-level answers. "SMBs." "Marketing teams." You can't email a category.
Q4: Narrowest Wedge
"What's the smallest version someone would pay real money for — this week, not after you build the platform?"
Push until you hear one feature, one workflow, something shippable in days.
Red flags: "Need to build the full platform first." "Stripping it down removes differentiation." Attachment to architecture over value.
Bonus push: "What if the user got value with zero setup — no login, no integration?"
Q5: Observation
"Have you sat down and watched someone use this without helping them? What surprised you?"
Push until you hear a specific surprise — something the user did that contradicted assumptions.
Red flags: "We sent a survey." "We did demo calls." "Going as expected." Surveys lie. Demos are theater. "As expected" means filtered through assumptions.
The gold: users doing something the product wasn't designed for. That's often the real product.
Q6: Future-Fit
"If the world looks meaningfully different in 3 years — and it will — does your product become more essential or less?"
Push until you hear a specific claim about how their users' world changes and why that makes the product more valuable.
Red flags: "Market growing 20% YoY." Growth rate is not a vision. "AI makes everything better." That's not a thesis — every competitor says the same.
Demand Interrogation Verdict
After questions, synthesize:
| Signal | Verdict | Next Step |
|---|---|---|
| Specific demand evidence, named users, clear wedge | Proceed | Move to Assumption Risk Framework below |
| Mixed signals, some evidence, vague on specifics | Sharpen | Use pm-customer-interviews to fill gaps |
| No evidence, hypothetical users, category-level answers | Pause | Use idea-generation to find a better angle |
Assumption Risk Framework
High Risk (Validate First)
| Assumption | Validation Method | Success Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| Problem exists | Customer interviews (10+) | 7/10 confirm problem |
| Willing to pay | Price testing, pre-orders | 3+ paying commitments |
| Pain is acute | Severity scoring | Average 8+/10 |
Medium Risk (Validate During MVP)
| Assumption | Validation Method | Success Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| Features priority | Usage analytics | 60%+ use core feature |
| Channel works | A/B testing | CAC < 1/3 LTV |
| Positioning | Competitive testing | Clear preference signals |
Low Risk (Validate Post-Launch)
- Scale assumptions
- Expansion opportunities
- Adjacent markets
MVP Strategy
Definition Criteria
| Element | Question | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Core value | What's the one thing it MUST do? | Single feature |
| Target user | Who has this problem most acutely? | Narrow persona |
| Success metric | How do we know it works? | Measurable KPI |
| Timeline | What's the fastest we can test? | Weeks, not months |
Feature Prioritization
| Category | Include in MVP | Defer |
|---|---|---|
| Must-have | Core value delivery | Enhancement features |
| Differentiator | Key unique angle | Secondary differentiators |
| Table stakes | Minimum viable | Nice-to-haves |
Validation Methodology
Customer Discovery Script
Opening (2 min)
- Build rapport
- Explain purpose: learning, not selling
Problem Exploration (10 min)
- "Tell me about the last time you dealt with [problem]..."
- "What did you try? What worked/didn't work?"
- "On a scale of 1-10, how painful is this?"
Solution Testing (5 min)
- "If you could wave a magic wand, what would happen?"
- "I'm working on something that [brief description]..."
- "Would this help? Why or why not?"
Commitment Testing (3 min)
- "Would you be interested in trying an early version?"
- "What would you expect to pay for something like this?"
- "Can I follow up when we have something to show?"
Signal Interpretation
| Signal | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|
| "I'd pay for this" | Interest | Get specific on price |
| "Keep me updated" | Lukewarm | Find stronger pain |
| "I already have X" | Competition | Differentiate or pivot |
| "Let me introduce you to..." | Enthusiasm | Strong signal |
Decision Framework
Green Light (Proceed)
- 70%+ confirm problem exists
- 3+ paying commitments
- Clear differentiation
- Unit economics work
Yellow Light (Iterate)
- Mixed feedback on value prop
- Price resistance but interest
- Unclear positioning
- Channel uncertainty
Red Light (Pivot)
- <30% problem confirmation
- No willingness to pay
- Existing solutions "good enough"
- No user enthusiasm
PMF Indicators
| Metric | Pre-PMF | At PMF | Strong PMF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retention | <20% | 40%+ | 60%+ |
| NPS | <20 | 40+ | 60+ |
| Word of mouth | <10% | 25%+ | 40%+ |
| Revenue growth | Flat | 20%+ MoM | 50%+ MoM |
| Inbound demand | None | Some | Pull > Push |