Preamble (run first)
# 检查是否有PRD作为输入
if [ -f "docs/02-方案设计/PRD产品需求文档.md" ]; then
echo "✅ 检测到PRD文档，将基于此设计商业模式"
fi
Boundaries when writing
When only discussing, do not write files; the startup check does not create directories. When the user requests saving artifacts, first confirm the current product, the exact output path, and the overwrite/append choice for existing files; after confirmationonly immediately before the actual Writecreate the parent directory of that output file. For complete installation, see skills/_shared/artifact-policy.md; installing this skill alone also follows this paragraph.
Cross-Agent interaction rules
When the process requires interaction with the user:
- If the current environment supports AskUserQuestion, use AskUserQuestion (best experience).
- If the current environment does not support AskUserQuestion, you must ask the same question via a normal chat message.
- Ask only one question at a time.
- After asking, you must stop the current turn and wait for the user's answer (STOP and WAIT).
- Do not generate documents or write to docs before the user answers.
- Existing docs files cannot replace the user's answer in this round.
Execution process
Step 1: Business Model Canvas (9 elements)
Use AskUserQuestion to ask about the 9 elements of the Business Model Canvas one by one:
Element 1: Customer Segments
Use AskUserQuestion to ask:
Who are your target customers?
A) Mass market (for all users) B) Niche market (a specific segmented group) C) Multi-sided market (connecting multiple user groups) D) Segmented market (multiple segmented groups) E) Other (please enter manually)
Continue asking:
Please describe your core customer group in detail (age, region, behavioral characteristics, etc.)
Element 2: Value Propositions
Ask:
What core problem does your product solve for customers? What unique value does it provide?
Guide the user to input:
- The core pain point being solved
- The unique value point
- Differentiation from competitors
Element 3: Channels
Ask:
Through what channels do you reach customers? (multiple choices allowed)
A) Online channels (official website, APP, mini program) B) Social media (WeChat, Douyin, Xiaohongshu) C) Offline channels (stores, ground promotion) D) Partner channels E) Other (please enter manually)
Element 4: Customer Relationships
Ask:
What kind of relationship do you establish with customers?
A) Self-service (users complete it themselves) B) Dedicated personal assistance (one-to-one service) C) Community operations (user community) D) Co-creation (users participate in product design) E) Automated services (AI customer service, intelligent recommendations)
Element 5: Revenue Streams
Ask:
How does your product make a profit? (multiple choices allowed)
A) Revenue from selling goods B) Subscription/membership revenue C) Advertising revenue D) Transaction commission E) Data service revenue F) Value-added service revenue G) Other (please enter manually)
Element 6: Key Resources
Ask:
What core resources are needed to implement the business model? (multiple choices allowed)
A) Physical resources (warehouses, equipment, stores) B) Intellectual property (patents, technology, brands) C) Human resources (core technical team) D) Financial resources (funds, investment) E) Data resources (user data, behavioral data)
Element 7: Key Activities
Ask:
Which key activities need to be carried out? (Multiple choice)
A) Product R&D B) User operations C) Marketing D) Supply chain management E) Customer service
Element 8: Key Partnerships
Ask:
Which key partners are needed? (Multiple choice)
A) Suppliers B) Distribution channels C) Technical service providers D) Logistics partners E) Strategic investors
Element 9: Cost Structure
Ask:
What is the main cost structure? (Multiple choice)
A) Fixed costs (rent, labor, equipment) B) Variable costs (raw materials, logistics, marketing) C) Economies of scale (the larger the scale, the lower the cost) D) Economies of scope (diversification reduces costs)
Step 2: Revenue Model Design
Based on the revenue sources in Step 1, design a detailed revenue model:
Scenario A: Subscription/Membership Revenue
Ask:
Membership Model Design
A) Single membership (free/paid binary) B) Multi-tier membership (basic/standard/premium) C) Tiered membership (by function/by duration) D) Other (please design manually)
Continue asking about membership pricing:
Membership Pricing Strategy
Guide the user to input:
- Monthly/annual fee price
- Feature differences across tiers
- Pricing basis (cost-plus/value-based/competitive pricing)
Scenario B: Transaction Commission
Ask:
Commission Model Design
Guide the user to input:
- Commission rate (e.g., 5%, 10%)
- Calculation method (by transaction amount/by number of orders)
- Tiered commission (discounts for large transactions)
Scenario C: Advertising Revenue
Ask:
Advertising Model Design
A) Display advertising (billed by impressions, CPM) B) Click advertising (billed by clicks, CPC) C) Conversion advertising (billed by conversions, CPA) D) Brand advertising (billed by time period, CPT)
Step 3: Pricing Strategy
Ask:
Pricing Strategy Selection
A) Cost-plus pricing (cost + profit) B) Value-based pricing (based on customer perceived value) C) Competitive pricing (referencing competitor prices) D) Penetration pricing (low price to quickly capture the market) E) Skimming pricing (high price to capture high-end users)
Continue asking about specific prices:
Specific Pricing Plan
Guide the user to input:
- Basic version price
- Premium version price
- Enterprise version price
- Price tier design logic
Step 4: Cost Structure Analysis
Based on the cost structure in Step 1, conduct a detailed analysis:
Ask:
Main cost items and their proportions
Guide the user to input:
- Labor cost: X%
- Marketing: X%
- Technology R&D: X%
- Operating costs: X%
- Other costs: X%
Question:
Break-even point
How many users/revenue are needed to reach break-even?
Step 5: Generate the business model design document
Use the Write tool to generate the document to docs/05-产品战略/商业模式设计.md：
---
product: [产品名称]
created_at: [当前时间]
author: [用户]
skill: pm-business-model
status: draft
---
# 商业模式设计
## 一、商业模式画布
### 1. 客户细分
**目标客户**：[客户描述]
**核心特征**：
- 年龄：[X-X岁]
- 地域：[城市/地区]
- 行为特征：[描述]
- 痛点：[核心痛点]
---
### 2. 价值主张
**核心价值**：
1. [价值点1]
2. [价值点2]
3. [价值点3]
**差异化优势**：
- 与竞品A对比：[差异化点]
- 与竞品B对比：[差异化点]
---
### 3. 渠道通路
**主要渠道**：
1. [渠道1] - 占比[X]%
2. [渠道2] - 占比[X]%
3. [渠道3] - 占比[X]%
---
### 4. 客户关系
**关系类型**：[自助服务/个人助理/社区运营...]
**关键举措**：
- [举措1]
- [举措2]
- [举措3]
---
### 5. 收入来源
**收入结构**：
| 收入类型 | 占比 | 说明 |
|---------|------|------|
| [会员收入] | [60%] | 主要收入来源 |
| [广告收入] | [30%] | 次要收入 |
| [增值服务] | [10%] | 补充收入 |
**月度目标收入**：[X]万元
---
### 6. 核心资源
**关键资源**：
1. [技术平台] - 核心技术基础设施
2. [用户数据] - 用户行为数据资产
3. [品牌资产] - 品牌知名度
4. [核心团队] - 关键人才
---
### 7. 关键业务
**核心业务**：
1. 产品研发 - 持续迭代产品功能
2. 用户运营 - 提升用户活跃度和留存
3. 市场营销 - 获取新用户
---
### 8. 重要伙伴
**战略伙伴**：
1. [伙伴A] - [合作内容]
2. [伙伴B] - [合作内容]
3. [伙伴C] - [合作内容]
---
### 9. 成本结构
**成本构成**：
| 成本类型 | 占比 | 金额（月） | 说明 |
|---------|------|-----------|------|
| 人力成本 | [50%] | [X万] | 研发、运营团队 |
| 市场营销 | [25%] | [X万] | 获客、品牌推广 |
| 技术成本 | [15%] | [X万] | 服务器、云服务 |
| 运营成本 | [10%] | [X万] | 客服、物流 |
**月度总成本**：[X]万元
---
## 二、收入模型设计
### 模式1: 会员订阅
**会员等级**：
| 等级 | 价格 | 功能权益 | 目标用户 |
|------|------|---------|---------|
| 免费版 | 0元 | 基础功能 | 体验用户 |
| 标准版 | [X]元/月 | 标准功能 | 主流用户 |
| 高级版 | [X]元/月 | 高级功能 | 高价值用户 |
| 企业版 | [X]元/年 | 全部功能+专属服务 | 企业客户 |
**会员转化率目标**：
- 免费转付费：[X]%
- 标准转高级：[X]%
---
### 模式2: 交易佣金
**佣金规则**：
- 普通商品：佣金[X]%
- 高价值商品：佣金[X]%
- 大额交易（>[X]元）：佣金优惠至[X]%
**预估收入**：
- 月订单量：[X]万单
- 平均客单价：[X]元
- 月佣金收入：[X]万元
---
### 模式3: 广告收入
**广告类型**：
1. 开屏广告：[X]元/天
2. 信息流广告：[X]元/千次展示
3. 搜索广告：[X]元/点击
**预估收入**：
- DAU：[X]万
- 广告填充率：[X]%
- 月广告收入：[X]万元
---
## 三、定价策略
### 定价方法
**采用策略**：价值定价 + 竞争定价
**定价依据**：
1. 客户感知价值：[X]元/月
2. 竞品价格：[竞品A: X元, 竞品B: X元]
3. 成本支撑：最低[X]元/月能覆盖成本
---
### 具体定价方案
**标准版定价**：[X]元/月
**价格梯度**：
- 月付：[X]元/月
- 季付：[X]元/季（相当于[X]元/月，优惠[X]%）
- 年付：[X]元/年（相当于[X]元/月，优惠[X]%）
**定价心理学应用**：
- 锚定效应：展示原价[X]元，现价[X]元
- 诱饵效应：设置中间价位引导选择高级版
- 稀缺性：限时优惠制造紧迫感
---
## 四、盈利预测
### 收入预测（未来12个月）
| 月份 | 用户数 | 付费用户 | 收入（万元） | 增长率 |
|------|-------|---------|------------|--------|
| M1 | [X]万 | [X]千 | [X] | - |
| M3 | [X]万 | [X]千 | [X] | [X]% |
| M6 | [X]万 | [X]千 | [X] | [X]% |
| M12 | [X]万 | [X]万 | [X] | [X]% |
---
### 盈亏平衡分析
**盈亏平衡点**：
- 月固定成本：[X]万元
- 单用户贡献：[X]元
- 盈亏平衡用户数：[X]万用户
**预计达到时间**：M[X]
---
### 利润预测
| 阶段 | 时间 | 月收入 | 月成本 | 月利润 | 利润率 |
|------|------|-------|-------|-------|--------|
| 投入期 | M1-M6 | [X]万 | [X]万 | [-X]万 | [-X]% |
| 成长期 | M7-M12 | [X]万 | [X]万 | [X]万 | [X]% |
| 成熟期 | M13+ | [X]万 | [X]万 | [X]万 | [X]% |
---
## 五、风险评估
### 风险1: 用户增长不及预期
**影响**：收入无法覆盖成本
**概率**：中
**应对**：
1. 加大市场投放
2. 优化产品体验
3. 降低运营成本
---
### 风险2: 付费转化率低
**影响**：收入目标无法达成
**概率**：高
**应对**：
1. 优化会员权益
2. 提供免费试用
3. 推出优惠活动
---
### 风险3: 竞品价格战
**影响**：价格优势丧失
**概率**：中
**应对**：
1. 差异化竞争
2. 提升服务价值
3. 避免恶性价格战
---
## 六、下一步建议
建议执行：
1. /pm-position - 完善产品定位方案
2. /pm-roadmap - 制定产品路线图
3. /pm-growth - 制定增长执行方案
---
**项目状态**: 商业模式设计完成
**生成时间**: [当前时间]
**生成工具**: super-pm
Subagent parallel analysis (new in v2.0)
After the business model canvas elements have been collected, subagents can be dispatched to conduct external research in parallel:
Agent 1: Competitor business model research
type: "general-purpose"
prompt: "调研同行业竞品的商业模式、盈利方式、定价策略，提供结构化对比。搜索工具优先级：首选 AnySearch（Bash 调用 anysearch_cli.py（先定位：检查 ~/.claude/skills/anysearch/scripts/ ~/.opencode/skills/anysearch/scripts/ ~/.openclaw/skills/anysearch/scripts/ ~/.cursor/skills/anysearch/scripts/ ~/.anysearch/scripts/ 或 which anysearch_cli.py，找到后 python3 <路径>）search），失败降级到 Exa MCP（mcp__exa__web_search_exa），最后才用 WebSearch。使用 WebSearch 时标注降级模式。"
Agent 2: Industry profitability benchmark query
type: "general-purpose"
prompt: "查询目标行业的平均利润率、付费转化率、客单价等基准数据。搜索工具优先级：首选 AnySearch（Bash 调用 anysearch_cli.py（先定位：检查 ~/.claude/skills/anysearch/scripts/ ~/.opencode/skills/anysearch/scripts/ ~/.openclaw/skills/anysearch/scripts/ ~/.cursor/skills/anysearch/scripts/ ~/.anysearch/scripts/ 或 which anysearch_cli.py，找到后 python3 <路径>）search），失败降级到 Exa MCP（mcp__exa__web_search_exa），最后才用 WebSearch。使用 WebSearch 时标注降级模式。"
V1 vs V2 comparison
| Dimension | v1 (serial) | v2 (Subagent parallel) |
|---|---|---|
| Competitor research | Manual search or skip | Subagent parallel search and analysis |
| Industry benchmarks | No systematic data support | Subagent automatically obtains benchmarks |
| Token usage | Search results occupy the main context | Subagent handles independently |
| Execution efficiency | Linear sequential | 2x speedup via parallelism |
Notes
- Market validation: Market validation is required after business model design
- Flexible adjustment: Adjust pricing and model promptly based on market feedback
- Competitive analysis: Continuously monitor competitor developments
- Compliance: Ensure the business model meets regulatory requirements
Output quality comparison
✅ Good example：
- 有数据引用：「根据 Q4 数据，留存率从 35% 降至 28%」
- 有验证来源：「数据来源：Google Analytics, 2025-12-01」
- 有明确建议：「建议将新手引导步骤从 5 步减少至 3 步」
❌ Bad example：
- 模糊结论：「数据表明留存率有所下降」
- 无来源：「根据经验，这个功能很重要」
- 没有行动建议：「留存是个问题」
Common pitfalls / Red Flags — STOP
Stop immediately and backtrack if any of the following occur:
| Pitfall | Correct approach |
|---|---|
| Drawing conclusions using "should", "probably", "seems" | Must be based on actual data and validation |
| Claiming completion without running checks | Verify first, then state |
| Skipping key steps due to time pressure | No exceptions; the tighter the time, the stricter you must be |
| The thought "this time it should be fine" | Re-verify every time |
Output quality check / Verification Checklist
- Prerequisite dependencies are satisfied (input documents/data have been collected)
- All core steps have been executed
- Output document has been generated to the
docs/directory - Every judgment is supported by data/evidence
- 2-3 follow-up skills have been recommended
⚠️ If any item fails → complete it before marking as done.