shiliuzijue

R — Original text (Reading)

"Starting from May 1928, the basic principles of guerrilla warfare, which were suited to the circumstances at the time and had a simple character, had already emerged, namely the so-called sixteen-character formula of 'the enemy advances, we retreat; the enemy camps, we harass; the enemy tires, we attack; the enemy retreats, we pursue.' ... The basic principle is still that sixteen-character formula. The sixteen-character formula encapsulates the basic principles of counter-'encirclement and suppression' campaigns, encapsulates the two stages of strategic defense and strategic offense, and in defense also encapsulates the two stages of strategic retreat and strategic counteroffensive." — Problems of Strategy in China's Revolutionary War (December 1936)

I — Methodological skeleton (Interpretation)

The sixteen-character formula is a set of precise action guidelines for the opponent's four states (advance/camp/tire/retreat). It is not a vague "adapt flexibly," but rather has a clear rhythm code.
The enemy advances, we retreat: When the opponent attacks with full force, do not clash head-on—contract the core, protect the base, and avoid a frontal war of attrition. Retreat is not fleeing, but preserving strength in an orderly way.
The enemy camps, we harass: After the opponent gains a firm foothold, their attention will shift—continuously harass their weak links with differentiated products and localized services, so that the opponent cannot have peace.
The enemy tires, we attack: When the opponent's management chain lengthens and their reactions slow—seize the window period, concentrate resources, and take the initiative to strike, fighting only battles you are sure to win.
The enemy retreats, we pursue: When the opponent contracts or adjusts strategy—take advantage of the momentum to expand market share and quickly occupy the space the opponent has abandoned.
The four steps form a complete cycle of attack and defense. The core principle is "follow the opponent's rhythm and, in each of the opponent's states, find the action most advantageous to oneself"—not self-centered, but taking the opponent's state as the signal for action.

A1 — Application in the book (Past Application)

Application 1: Practical application of concentrating forces — the first counter-'encirclement and suppression' campaign (c07)

Problem: The Kuomintang used superior forces for 'encirclement and suppression' of the Red Army, and a head-on fight was certain to be lost.
Use of the method: Mao Zedong first wanted to attack Tan Daoyuan, but the enemy did not leave its favorable position, so twice he advanced and twice he patiently withdrew (the enemy advances, we retreat); he waited 25 days before finding an opportunity to fight (the enemy camps, we harass / the enemy tires, we attack); after finding Zhang Huizan, who was easier to attack, he concentrated forces and annihilated him in one battle.
Conclusion: The composure of "preferring to yield and wait prudently for the right moment" forms a sharp contrast with the decisiveness of "once you strike, concentrate absolute superiority." The sixteen-character formula is not mechanical execution, but flexible application according to the actual enemy situation.
Result: The first four counter-'encirclement and suppression' campaigns all used this method and won victories. The fifth counter-'encirclement and suppression' campaign abandoned this principle and suffered a disastrous defeat.

Application 2: The counter-encirclement tactic of "besiege Wei to save Zhao" (c17)

Problem: The enemy encircled the base area from multiple routes; if every route were defended, forces would be dispersed.
Use of the method: Use secondary forces to contain several of the enemy's routes (a variant of the enemy advances, we retreat), and use the main force to attack the enemy's rear base, forcing the enemy to turn back to rescue it (the enemy tires, we attack).
Conclusion: The sixteen-character formula is not a rigid formula, but a logic of action that adapts flexibly according to actual circumstances.
Result: It was repeatedly applied successfully in anti-Japanese base areas such as Wutai Mountain, becoming a classic tactic for the weak to defeat the strong.

A2 — Trigger Scenarios (Future Trigger)

A competitor enters your market on a large scale: An industry giant or competing product forcefully enters your core domain, and users begin to waver. Users will say: "They are coming on strong, should we fight them head-on?" "Should we start a price war?"
The competitor has established a foothold but its attention is distracted: The competing product has gained a firm foothold in the market but has begun expanding other business lines, and local team management has become lax. Users will say: "The competitor hasn't been as aggressive lately" "Their service is starting to decline."
The competitor shows signs of fatigue or management bottlenecks: After the competitor expands in scale, decision-making slows down, service quality declines, and the team expands but efficiency decreases. Users will say: "Their people are getting harder to work with" "Customers are starting to complain about them."
The competitor voluntarily contracts or adjusts strategy: The competing product cuts certain product lines, exits certain regions, or adjusts its strategic direction. Users will say: "The competitor has exited the XX market" "They no longer pursue this direction."

Language signals: When users mention terms such as "the competitor is ___", "competitive rhythm", "should we attack or defend", "should we follow suit", "is the timing right", "they are making big moves/slowing down", etc., this skill should be activated as a priority.

Distinguishing from adjacent skills：

vs Asymmetric Strategy: This skill = "what to do right now" (rhythm execution), the latter = "what paradigm to use for competition" (strategic definition)
vs Strategic-Tactical Dialectics: This skill = "choose attack and defense rhythm according to the opponent's state", the latter = "create micro-level offense within macro-level defense"
vs Concentrating Superior Forces: This skill = "judging timing", the latter = "how to concentrate resources to strike once the timing is right"

E — Executable Steps (Execution)

Step 1: Diagnose the opponent's current state

Determine which of the four states the opponent is in: "advance/garrison/fatigue/retreat".
- Advance: The opponent is increasing investment, expanding into new markets, launching new products, and marketing aggressively.
- Garrison: The opponent has established a foothold in the market but growth has slowed, and its attention is beginning to scatter.
- Fatigue: The opponent's management chain has lengthened, team expansion has reduced efficiency, and customer complaints are increasing.
- Retreat: The opponent is contracting its front lines, cutting product lines, exiting regions, or shifting strategy.
Completion standard: Be able to explain in one sentence the opponent's current state and the basis for the judgment (e.g., "The opponent is in the 'garrison' state because after opening 3 stores in this city they have added none for 6 months, and they have begun expanding into out-of-town markets").

Step 2: Match the corresponding action

Choose an action according to the opponent's state:
- Opponent "advancing" → Contract and defend the core customer group, do not fight a head-on price war, and protect cash flow and the core team.
- Opponent "garrisoned" → Use differentiated products/services to continuously harass its weak points, and divert and capture its attention on marginal customer groups.
- Opponent "fatigued" → Concentrate resources to take the initiative in the most winnable segmented market, and fight a "decisive battle" to expand share.
- Opponent "retreating" → Seize the momentum to expand rapidly and fill the market gaps left by the opponent.
Stop point: If the opponent's state cannot be clearly determined (insufficient information), do not act rashly—first gather more intelligence, then match your actions.

Step 3: Set up state transition warnings

The opponent's state will not remain unchanged; set warning signals so you can switch actions in time:
- "Advance→Garrison" signal: the opponent's marketing spending decreases and the rate of new additions slows down.
- "Garrison→Fatigue" signal: the opponent's customer complaints increase, employee turnover rises, and response speed slows down.
- "Fatigue→Retreat" signal: the opponent closes stores/cuts product lines and withdraws from regional markets.
- "Retreat→Advance" signal: the opponent increases investment again, replaces key personnel, or adjusts strategy back.
Completion standard: Each state transition must have at least 2 observable warning indicators, and a monitoring frequency must be specified.

B — Boundary

Scenarios not to use

When there is no clear opponent: In a blue ocean market or a monopoly market, there is no "opponent state," and the sixteen-character formula has no place.
When you need to proactively define market rules: If you are an industry pioneer, you should not follow the opponent; instead, you should make the opponent follow you.
When in a position of absolute advantage: If you are already clearly ahead, you do not need to "follow the opponent's rhythm"; instead, you should dominate the market with your own rhythm.

Failure modes (from counterexamples)

Defeatism (ce16): Understanding the "retreat" in "the enemy advances, we retreat" as a total abandonment—retreat is an orderly contraction to protect the core, not a panicked rout. The "retreat" in the later stage of the fifth counter-"encirclement and suppression" campaign turned into defeatism.
Adventurism/quick-victory theory (ce05): As soon as the opponent "garrisons," you rush to "attack," escalating the "harass" in "the enemy garrisons, we harass" into an all-out offensive, only to be counterattacked due to insufficient preparation. The correct approach is to patiently wait for the opponent's "fatigue" signal before acting.
Dogmatism (ce01): Mechanically applying the sixteen-character formula without regard to actual conditions. Mao Zedong said, "The basic principle is still that sixteen-character formula," but the form of each application changes with different conditions.

Author's blind spot

The sixteen-character formula presupposes that the opponent's state can be clearly determined, but in actual business competition the opponent may deliberately feign weakness or release false signals. Business insight: the opponent's true state needs to be cross-verified from multiple dimensions and cannot be judged from a single signal alone.

Related skills

Asymmetric strategy (composes-with): Asymmetric strategy defines the competition paradigm ("what kind of war to fight"), while the sixteen-character formula executes the competition rhythm ("when the opponent advances, I retreat"). First determine the competition paradigm, then use the sixteen-character formula to execute the specific rhythm.
Strategy-tactics dialectic (composes-with): The "retreat→harass→attack→pursue" cycle of the sixteen-character formula is the specific execution rhythm of "offense within defense" in the strategy-tactics dialectic.
Initiative, flexibility, planning (composes-with): The four rhythm steps of the sixteen-character formula embody the three elements of execution capability—"judging the opponent's state" requires planning, "choosing the corresponding action" requires flexibility, and "setting warnings" requires initiative.