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cigar-butt-vs-great-business

Writing & research

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Updated 10-15 23:44

About this skill

Cigar Butts vs Great Businesses

R — Original Text (Reading)

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." (1987) "We have made silk purses from silk, but never from a sow's ear." (1987)

I — Methodology Skeleton

The journey from cigar butts to great businesses:

  • Cigar Butt Method(Graham): Pick up a discarded cigar butt that still has one free puff left — the problem is that it is one-time only
  • Great Business Method(Munger's influence): Buy excellent businesses at a fair price and let time and compounding work for you
  • Bad businesses consume your time, attention, and capital — even if the purchase price is very low
  • Good businesses grow on their own — requiring very little management and additional capital
  • It took Buffett nearly 20 years to complete this shift in thinking (1949→1967)

A1 — Application in the Book

Case: Berkshire textile business

  • Problem: Buying a bad business cheaply (textiles) and continuously investing capital
  • Use: A typical cigar butt mistake — bought at a low price but the industry was declining and required continuous capital investment
  • Result: Buffett admitted this was one of his biggest mistakes — "a silk purse out of a sow's ear is the best we can do, but not out of a pig's ear"

Case: See's Candy (counterexample)

  • Use: Buying a great business at a "fair" price — it can grow sustainably with very little capital
  • Result: Contributed $2 billion+ in profits over 50 years — proving that the compounding power of a great business far exceeds the cigar butt's "one free puff"

A2 — Trigger Scenarios

  1. Discovering a "very cheap" company, but with poor business quality
  2. An excellent company whose valuation does not look cheap
  3. Hesitating between a "value trap" and a "growth premium"
  4. Reflecting on whether your own investment methodology needs to evolve

Language Signals

  • "This company is very cheap, can I buy it?"
  • "The PE is only 3x, is this a bargain?"
  • "Good companies are too expensive, are they worth buying?"
  • "Buy a bad company cheaply or a good company expensively?"

Distinction from Adjacent Skills

  • Difference from margin-of-safety : Margin of safety emphasizes price protection, while this skill emphasizes business quality over price
  • Difference from economic-moat : Moat identifies good businesses, while this skill is the choice of an overall methodology

E — Executable Steps

  1. Do the "pig's ear test"

    • Completion standard: Even if this business is well managed, can it become a great business? If not → give it up, no matter how cheap it is
  2. Compare time investment

    • Completion standard: How much time will holding this investment require you to spend managing it? Does the attention cost consumed by a bad business exceed the price discount?
  3. Calculate the "compounding gap"

    • Completion standard: The intrinsic value growth of a good business after 10 years vs. the one-time discount of a bad business — the former is almost always far greater than the latter

B — Boundaries

  • The cigar-butt method is not entirely ineffective—one-off gains can still be obtained at extremely low prices.
  • "Reasonable" in "buying a good business at a reasonable price" needs to be precisely defined—it cannot be any price.
  • Author's blind spot: Buffett used the cigar-butt method in his early years to earn his first pot of gold—without the cigar-butt phase, there might not have been the later great-business phase.

Related skills (filled in stage 3)

  • depends-on: economic-moat, compounding-thinking
  • contrasts-with: margin-of-safety

Audit information

  • Verification passed: V1 ✓ / V2 ✓ / V3 ✓
  • Distillation time: 2026-04-16