china-returns-analysis
Purpose
Analyze and report on China Private Equity Fund Return Performance using IRR, MOIC, and related metrics.
Key Metrics
Core Metrics (Same as Global)
| Metric |
Formula |
Benchmark |
| IRR (Internal Rate of Return) |
Discounted cash flow rate |
15-20%+ for top China PE |
| MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital) |
Total returned / Total invested |
2.0-3.0x typical |
| TVPI (Total Value to Paid-In) |
(Distributed + NAV) / Paid-in |
>2.0x target |
| DPI (Distributed to Paid-In) |
Distributions / Paid-in |
0.5-1.0x early stage |
| RVPI (Residual Value to Paid-In) |
NAV / Paid-in |
>1.0x for active funds |
China-Specific Metrics
| Metric |
Description |
Benchmark |
| RMB IRR |
Returns in CNY |
12-18% for quality funds |
| USD IRR |
Returns in USD (hedged/unhedged) |
15-25% |
| Project Return |
Per-investment IRR/MOIC |
20-30% IRR target |
| Fund Return |
Fund-level IRR |
Top quartile: 20%+ |
| Cash Distribution |
Distributions received |
Annual yield target |
Data Sources (Multi-Tier)
Tier 0 — Wind (most comprehensive paid data)
- Coverage: A-shares/Hong Kong and US stocks/funds/indices/bonds/macro/research reports/analysis (44 tools)
- MCP Service:
wind-mcp(requires WIND_API_KEY key, starting with ak_ )
- Advantages: broadest full-market coverage, most comprehensive data, includes research reports and quantitative analysis
- Key application:https://aifinmarket.wind.com.cn/#/home
Tier 1 - iFind (paid)
When IFIND_AUTH_TOKEN is configured, iFind is the preferred data source.
For equivalent iFind tools, see china-market-data skill.
Primary Sources
| Data |
Source |
Notes |
| Fund Valuation Report |
Fund administrator |
Monthly/quarterly NAV |
| Investment Project Data |
Portfolio company reports |
Financials, valuations |
| Transaction Documents |
Investment agreements |
Deal terms, waterfalls |
| Zero2IPO / CVInfo |
Industry data |
Benchmark comparisons |
Secondary Sources
- CNINFO — public portfolio company filings
- AkShare — market data for public holdings
- Exchange — trading data
Workflow
Step 1: Fund-Level Summary
Fund overview table:
| Fund |
Vintage |
Size (100 million) |
Committed |
Called |
Distributed |
NAV |
TVPI |
IRR |
| Fund I |
2018 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fund II |
2021 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Step 2: Portfolio-Level Analysis
By investment:
| Investment |
Date |
Cost (100 million) |
Fair Value (100 million) |
MOIC |
IRR |
Status |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Active / Exited / Written off |
Step 3: Vintage Analysis
Vintage year performance:
| Vintage |
IRR |
MOIC |
# Deals |
# Exits |
TVPI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Benchmark comparison:
- vs CSI 300
- vs China PE/VC Index (if available)
- vs peer fund performance
Step 4: Sector Analysis
Returns by sector:
| Sector |
Invested (100 million) |
Realized (100 million) |
NAV (100 million) |
MOIC |
IRR |
| Semiconductors |
|
|
|
|
|
| New Energy |
|
|
|
|
|
| Pharmaceuticals |
|
|
|
|
|
| Consumer |
|
|
|
|
|
Step 5: J-Curve Analysis
Typical China PE J-curve:
- Year 0-2: Negative DPI (capital called, no distributions)
- Year 3-5: DPI starts building
- Year 5-7: MOIC > 1.0x
- Year 7+: Strong distributions
Step 6: Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity on key assumptions:
| Variable |
-20% |
-10% |
Base |
+10% |
+20% |
| Exit multiple |
|
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| EBITDA growth |
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| Time to exit |
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China-Specific Considerations
Fund Structures
| Structure |
Description |
Common Use |
| RMB fund |
Domestic currency |
Onshore investments |
| USD fund |
Offshore currency |
Cross-border, tech |
| Dual currency |
Both RMB and USD |
Flexible allocation |
| Fund of funds |
FoF structure |
Diversified access |
Return Expectations
| Fund Type |
IRR Target |
MOIC Target |
Hold Period |
| VC (seed/early stage) |
30-40% |
5-10x |
5-8 years |
| Growth equity |
20-30% |
3-5x |
4-7 years |
| Buyout |
15-25% |
2-4x |
4-7 years |
| Distressed |
20-30% |
2-5x |
3-5 years |
Exit Routes
| Route |
Description |
Typical Timeline |
Multiple |
| A-share IPO |
IPO on A-share market |
5-8 years from investment |
3-10x |
| M&A exit |
Trade sale to strategic |
3-6 years |
2-5x |
| Secondary share transfer |
Secondary sale |
3-5 years |
1.5-3x |
| Reverse merger listing |
Reverse merger |
3-5 years |
2-6x |
| Buyback |
Sponsor/management buyback |
5-8 years |
1.5-2.5x |
| Fund interest transfer |
Fund secondary |
Ongoing |
0.7-1.2x NAV |
Benchmark Indices
| Index |
Description |
| CSI 300 |
Broad A-share market |
| CSI 1000 |
Small-cap A-share |
| China PE/VC Index |
PE/VC performance index |
| Zero2IPO Index |
Zero2IPO index |
| CVInfo Index |
CVSource index |
Quality Checks
Before delivering:
- All cash flows documented
- IRR/MOIC calculations verified
- Benchmark comparisons included
- Sector analysis complete
- Vintage analysis included
- J-curve position clear
- Sensitivities run
Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.
ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailableifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShareakshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only
