SuperAPI AI Directory
Partner with us中文AI newsFavorites
Skillschina-model-update

china-model-update

Data & analytics

View repository

Updated 10-15 23:43

About this skill

china-model-update

Purpose

Update existing A-share financial model with new data, ensuring all cells are traceable to sources and all changes are documented.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 paid) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 free alternative)

get_financials(ticker, "income", "quarterly")   → Q[X] actual results
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "quarterly")  → BS update
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "quarterly") → CF update
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual")      → Full year update
get_quote(ticker)                               → Current market data
get_stock_info(ticker)                          → Any company changes

Secondary Sources

  • CNINFO — official filings for exact figures
  • earnings briefing transcript — management commentary
  • management guidance — guidance from earnings calls
  • Wind / Choice / Tonghuashun — consensus updates

Workflow

Step 1: Identify What Changed

Change triggers:

  • Quarterly earnings release (quarterly/annual report)
  • Management guidance update (management guidance adjustment)
  • Macro assumption change (rate, tax, policy)
  • Model error or refinement
  • M&A or restructuring event

Change log template:

Date Change Type Item Old Value New Value Reason
Earnings update Revenue FY25E XX hundred million XX hundred million Q1 actuals beat
Guidance Tax rate 25% 25% No change
Macro CapEx % 5% 6% New plant announced

Step 2: Update Historical Actuals

Quarterly actuals:

[Company] Q[X] 20XX Actuals (from AkShare / 巨潮):
- 营业收入: XXX亿 (YoY: +XX%)
- 毛利率: XX% (vs prior: XX%)
- 归母净利润: XXX亿 (YoY: +XX%)
- EPS: X.XX元
- 经营现金流: XXX亿

Update sequence:

  1. Drop Q[X] actuals into historical columns
  2. Verify sum checks (quarterly sum = annual)
  3. Update LTM (Last Twelve Months) calculations
  4. Check annual-to-quarter relationships

Step 3: Roll Forward Estimates

Revenue projections:

  • Update growth rates based on Q[X] performance
  • Consider:
    • Order backlog changes
    • New product ramp
    • Market share gains/losses
    • Capacity expansion

Margin projections:

  • Update gross margin based on actual trend
  • Update opex ratios based on actual leverage
  • Flag structural changes (input costs, pricing power)

Balance sheet projections:

  • Update working capital assumptions
  • Update debt schedule if refinancing occurred
  • Update CapEx plans

Step 4: Update Valuation

Market data refresh:

get_quote(ticker)  # Current price, PE, PB

Valuation metrics to update:

  • Current stock price and change
  • Trading multiple (PE, PB, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA)
  • 52-week range position
  • Relative to sector median
  • Implied growth vs historical

DCF updates (if applicable):

  • Roll forward projections by one year
  • Update market data inputs (beta, risk-free rate, shares)
  • Update terminal growth if outlook changed

Step 5: Flag Material Changes

Change significance assessment:

Change Threshold Action
Revenue estimate ±5% Update model, note driver
Net income estimate ±10% Update model, revise target price
Margin estimate ±100 bps Update model, assess sustainability
CapEx estimate ±20% Update model, check FCF impact
Multiple assumption ±1x Sensitivity check, document rationale

Red flags to highlight:

  • Revenue growth deceleration >500 bps
  • Margin compression >300 bps
  • Working capital deterioration
  • Debt increase >20% vs prior forecast
  • Management guidance lower than consensus

Step 6: Document Changes

Model update memo:

[公司名称]（[代码]）模型更新 [Date]

一、更新内容
   [Bullet list of changes made]

二、关键变动
   Revenue FY25E: [Old] → [New] ([Change]%)
   Net Income FY25E: [Old] → [New] ([Change]%)
   Driver: [Explanation]

三、估值影响
   新目标价: ¥XX.XX (之前 ¥XX.XX)
   调整幅度: +X% / -X%
   调整逻辑: [Brief rationale]

四、后续关注
   - [Next catalyst]
   - [Key metric to monitor]
   - [Risk factor]

Step 7: QC Checklist

Before finalizing:

  • All Q[X] actuals sourced from CNINFO PDF or AkShare
  • Historical data matches reported figures exactly
  • All formulas intact (no broken references)
  • LTM calculations updated
  • Forward estimates reflect new information
  • Valuation inputs refreshed (price, shares, multiples)
  • Target price recalculated
  • Change log complete
  • Cell comments added for new inputs
  • Model balances correctly

China-Specific Update Considerations

Earnings Season Timing

Report Deadline Typical Release Window
Q1 quarterly report Apr 30 Apr 1-30
interim report Aug 31 Aug 1-31
Q3 quarterly report Oct 31 Oct 1-31
annual report Apr 30 Jan-Apr

Model update priority:

  • Annual report: Complete overhaul of historicals
  • Semi-annual: Major update, adjust full-year estimates
  • Quarterly: Incremental update, verify full-year trajectory

earnings forecast Integration

If company issued earnings forecast:

  • Use as directional signal before formal report
  • Adjust estimates if variance >20% from prior
  • Flag for detailed update when formal report arrives

Consensus Management

  • Update consensus assumptions based on new information
  • If company guidance differs from consensus, flag divergence
  • Note if management commentary suggests estimate revision

Regulatory Changes

Monitor for:

  • Tax rate changes (high-tech enterprise reclassification)
  • Accounting standard updates
  • Industry-specific regulation impacts on assumptions
  • Dividend policy changes (affects DCF terminal value)

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

  • All new actuals traceable to source
  • Formulas verified (no hardcodes in calculations)
  • Estimates logically consistent with new data
  • Valuation update reflects current market conditions
  • Changes documented in update memo
  • Model passes basic QC (balance checks, sum checks)

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

  • ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
  • ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
  • akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only