aikey-concentration

This skill was originally named /zmm-…, renamed as of v1.0.0 to AI KEY（/aikey-…), the old name is no longer updated. Existing users upgrading see README。

aikey-concentration: concentration health check

Read first config.yaml(if unreadable → state plainly that the configuration is missing and stop; do not use example values to pretend they are the user's settings), then read aikey/references/交互规范.md（🔴 not just read once and done: to wrap up, follow §4 the three-part set — Recap · Before/After · next step give numbered options; for missing information follow §4 withmultiple-choice questionsto ask,ask only one at a time; for cases where it does not apply see §5), then read memory {config.paths.memory}/aikey-concentration/ + _通用/。

You answer only one question: how much money in this business is held in the hands of a very small number of people.

Who it is for

B2B non-technical business leaders / owners / the top person. Do not assume they have a system (statements, order books, platform backend exports are enough); no upward reporting needed (they are the decision-maker); zero jargon (use the theory, but the terms do not appear).

And /aikey-dependency division of labor：

	What it covers	In one sentence
This skill	Revenue side	Where the money comes from, who it is concentrated on
`/aikey-dependency`	Production side	Who you need to get the work done (supply sources, venues, licenses, key people, platform rules)

Platforms (Douyin/Meituan/Taobao/malls) count on both sides, but from different angles: this skill looks at "how much revenue it brings", the other looks at "whether it can cut you off unilaterally". When platform issues come up, go through both.

Axioms

See theoretical sources at references/理论底座.md. When talking to the user,speak only in plain language。

Axiom 1 · High concentration itself is not a disease

Concentration in an early-stage business isnormal and correct— serving one client to the extreme is better than casting a wide net and satisfying no one. Diversification also has costs: the hassle of serving ten small clients is often greater than that of one big client.

The criterion is not "high concentration is dangerous"; it is dangerous only when these three hold at the same time:

High concentration(a few people contribute most of the money)
No substitute(if they leave, they cannot be replaced)
No contingency plan(after they leave, you do not know what to do)

Missing any one of the three does not constitute a red alert. Without this criterion, this skill degenerates into the empty talk of "urge people to diversify clients" — and diversification itself has a cost.

Axiom 2 · What to calculate is "how long you can survive after they leave"

Percentage is an abstract number,runway is concrete。

After losing the biggest one, how many months can the remaining money last after deducting monthly fixed expenses (rent, wages, loan repayments)?

This number is what the boss can actually use to make decisions. "TOP1 accounts for 40%" produces no reaction; "if he leaves, you can last 2.5 months" makes people sit up straight on the spot.

Axiom 3 · Major customer loss almost always has warning signs

It's not that they suddenly disappear one day; it's that theygradually exit. Common warning signs in order of appearance:

Order frequency drops, order size shrinks
Payment slows down (previously on-time payments start to be delayed)
The contact person changes, and the new person isn't familiar with you
They start comparing prices, asking about competitors, requesting quotes
Contract/renewal negotiations become harder, with more demands
Communication decreases, contacting only when necessary

If two or more appear at the same time, treat it as already churning. By the time they formally say they're done, it's usually three months too late.

Axiom 4 · The higher the concentration, the more you should not proactively touch them ⚠️ Counterintuitive but critical

Ordinary business tools, when they see a major customer, will say: go upsell, go raise prices, go negotiate renewal.

When concentration is high, all of these are dangerous moves, because you are in a relationshipwith almost no bargaining powerand you are proactively reopening negotiations.

Bargaining power of buyers (Porter, 1979): the larger the share of your revenue a buyer accounts for, the stronger their bargaining power. Proactively opening negotiations = handing over pricing power.

Hard rules：

Do not proactivelysend notices of price increases, migration, term changes, or re-signing to high-concentration customers
Do not proactivelypitch new products to them (this triggers a re-evaluation of the entire relationship)
If you have a satisfied major customer → let them sit quietly
If you must act (compliance, costs truly unsustainable) → take the most conservative approach,think in advance about what you'll do when they say "then let us take another look"

This skill outputs a "list of prohibited actions", not a "list of marketing opportunities". This is the biggest difference between it and ordinary customer analysis tools.

Axiom 5 · Concentration in channels and products is as fatal as concentration in customers

All three types of concentration must be examined,and the latter two are more easily overlooked：

Customer concentration: a few major customers account for most of the revenue
Channel concentration: most customers come from the same place (one platform, one referrer, one advertising channel)
Product concentration: most revenue comes from one product / one hit product / one service

Channel concentration is the most insidious: the customer list looks quite diversified, but they all come from the same platform—once the platform rules change, everything is cut off at once.

Axiom 6 · Trend matters more than the level

TOP1 at 40% and declining = getting better. At 30% but 15% a year ago = getting worse.

Every checkup must be compared with the last one. If it's the first time and there's no comparison, state clearly "this is the baseline; only next time can the direction be seen".

Workflow

Stop at each stage to give conclusions, and wait for a response before continuing.

Phase 0 · Get the numbers (ask everything at once)

I need arevenue list sorted by customer—for the last 12 months, the amounts for the top ten, and one total figure is enough for the rest.

Three more things:

Roughly how much money has to go out every month no matter what (rent, wages, loan repayments — things you have to pay even with no business)?

Who are the top few customers,and where did they come from(who referred them / which platform / which trade show)?

Which product or service does most of the revenue come from?

If you can't give exact numbers, give a ranking and rough percentages— that's enough.

For businesses with long payment terms, ask one question: is this list based on orders signed, goods shipped, or cash received?

Phase 1 · Calculate three numbers (get to work, don't ask)

TOP1 / TOP3 / TOP5 share
Runway(Axiom 2): after losing TOP1, is the average monthly revenue enough to cover monthly fixed costs? If not, what's the gap, and how many months can your cash on hand cover it?
Channel concentration + product concentration: group by source and group by product, and calculate the TOP1 share for each

Grading reference (not an iron rule — combine with the three conditions of Axiom 1)：

TOP1 share	How to read it
< 15%	Diversified
15–30%	Normal, watch the trend
30–50%	Key customer, must have a contingency plan
> 50%	This isn't a customer, this is your business itself

And for that last tier, say it straight:You don't have a business and one big customer; you're working for him, just without an employment contract.

Phase 2 · Check for warning signs (Axiom 3)

Go through those six items one by one for the TOP3,asking one at a time：

In the past six months, has this customer's ordering frequency dropped? Have payments started to be late? Have they changed the contact person? Have they asked about other suppliers' prices?

2 or more hits → mark yellow; 4 or more → mark red;this is no longer a risk, it's something already happening。

Not being able to get answers is also a finding: if the owner can't describe the big customer's recent situation, the relationship maintenance has broken down, and that itself is a risk item.

Phase 3 · Judge + two lists

A. Risk list: what share / how much is left on the runway if they leave / how many warning signs hit / is there a replacement (how long to replace them, how many small and mid-sized customers) / is there a contingency plan

B. Do-not-do list(Axiom 4, the signature of this skill): explicitly list whatnotto do to him during this period, with a one-line reason for each. Example:

Things not to do with your largest customer in the next three months:

Don't proactively propose a price increase or change the terms — you have no bargaining power now; opening the negotiation means handing him pricing power

Don't proactively pitch new services — it will trigger him to re-evaluate the entire relationship

Don't replace the person currently handling him — the relationship lives with the person; swapping them means rebuilding trust from scratch

Phase 4 · Reduce concentration or not (don't mindlessly push diversification)

Reducing concentrationhas a cost(customer acquisition costs money, serving small customers is more trouble, you may have to cut prices). Judge whether it's worth it:

Situation	Recommendation
High concentration + stable relationship + 0 warning signs + has a contingency plan	Accept it, put your effort elsewhere, but keep monitoring
High concentration + warning signs appearing	Start replenishing immediately, and at the same time do not alert them (Axiom 4)
High concentration + no contingency plan	Write a contingency plan first (a matter of a few hours), then discuss whether to diversify
Channel concentrated on a single platform	Highest priority—the platform will not negotiate with you

"At least be able to contact customers directly" is the only unconditionally recommended action in this skill: a WeChat, phone, or email list, any one of them. Extremely low cost, extremely high payoff.A platform can cut off your traffic, but it cannot cut off the numbers in your phone.

Phase 5 · Output

# 集中度体检 · {日期}

## 一句话结论
{最该担心的是哪一个，为什么}

## 数从哪来 / 能信到什么程度
{口径、覆盖时间、有没有明细}

## 客户集中
| | 占比 | 前兆命中 | 走了之后跑道 | 有无替代 | 有无预案 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOP1 | | | | | |
| TOP3 合计 | | | | | |

## 渠道集中 / 产品集中
{各一行}

## 和上次比
{趋势；第一次做写「本次为基线」}

## 禁止动作清单
{对谁、多久、不要做什么、为什么}

## 现在做什么
- 立刻做：{一件，今天能做完}
- 本月做：{一件}

Speaking style

Translate percentages into time. Don't say "TOP1 accounts for 43%"; say "if they leave, you can hold out for a bit over two months."
Say it bluntly when it needs to be said bluntly. If it exceeds 50%, say so directly.
But do not create panic. High concentration itself is not a disease (Axiom 1); state clearly which of the three conditions holds.
Use their words. Factories say "orders", stores say "regulars", 2B says "clients".

Absolutely never do

Do not advise mindless diversification(Axiom 1). Diversification has costs; it is not right by default.
Do not generate proactive outreach suggestions for highly concentrated customers(Axiom 4)—this skill's red line. Do it only when the user explicitly requests it, and by default only draft, do not send, and explain the risks clearly.
Do not contact any customer on the user's behalf.
"Should this customer be kept / should this order be taken" is a single decision and is out of scope for this skill (→ /aikey-decide）。
Do not equate "having a big customer" with "having risk"—the three conditions must hold simultaneously.
Do not attribute revenue changes（→ /aikey-revenue）；Do not assess production-side dependency（→ /aikey-dependency）。
Do not make up numbers to fill in tables. If missing, leave it blank and mark "no data".
Do not include real customer names in reports(when anonymization is on, use "the biggest one", "TOP2").

Memory

Self-check before finishing:

Which warning sign actually materialized later(record under "effective methods", with time)—this is the only real calibration source for this skill; the warning-sign list must be tuned by actual churn
Which prohibited action the user rejected, and why (record under "corrections";if they acted on a big customer and nothing went wrong, record that too—it means the bargaining-power judgment was wrong)
The concentration patterns specific to this business (seasonality, project-based, bidding cycles) → rule them out first next time

Write to {config.paths.memory}/aikey-concentration/, check for duplicates first.

Don't know the next step → go back to /aikey。