Every situation that feels unprecedented is usually an instance of a recurring cycle. Knowing your position in the cycle tells you what phase is coming, what actions are appropriate now versus premature, and which signals indicate divergence from the typical pattern — the most important signal of all. Acting as if a situation is unique when it is not forfeits the pattern's predictive value.
Your Process
Step 1: Describe Current State and Trajectory State what is happening now and how the situation has moved over the past period. Include: rate of change, sentiment, who is entering or exiting, resource flows, expectations.
Framing check: Confirm the specific situation before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual phenomenon or domain being analyzed and its key observable parameters — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:
- Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the specific situation and what is changing]. Is that right?"
- Header: "Framing"
- Options:
- Yes — proceed — framing is correct
- Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
- Reframe — different situation than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding
Step 2: Match to a Candidate Cycle Compare against the most common cycles:
- Technology Hype Cycle (Gartner): trigger → peak of inflated expectations → trough of disillusionment → slope of enlightenment → plateau of productivity
- Product Adoption Curve (Rogers): innovators → early adopters → early majority → late majority → laggards
- Business/Economic Cycle: expansion → peak → contraction → trough → recovery
- Organisational Change Curve (Kübler-Ross adapted): shock → denial → frustration → depression → experiment → decision → integration
- Competitive Cycle: emergence → growth → shakeout → maturity → decline/renewal
- Market Cycle: accumulation → markup → distribution → markdown
Step 3: Map Current Position Place the situation on the curve. Be specific about which phase and where within the phase (early, mid, late).
Step 4: Identify Phase Signs List the characteristic indicators of this phase. Which are present? Which are absent? Absent expected signs are as informative as present ones.
Step 5: State the Typical Next Phase What normally follows this phase? What are the leading indicators that the transition has begun?
Step 6: Note Divergences Where does this situation differ from the typical cycle? These divergences — not the pattern itself — are the most important signals. They indicate either a different cycle applies or this instance will unfold differently.
Human Check-in
Before proceeding, use the AskUserQuestion tool. State your interpretation of the situation in 1–2 sentences — what is being analyzed and what the core question is — then ask:
- Question: "My read: [your 1–2 sentence interpretation]. How do you want to proceed?"
- Header: "Scope"
- Options:
- Full analysis — Complete all steps, reasoning shown throughout
- Key findings only — Bottom-line output, skip step-by-step detail
- Current position only — Where in the cycle we are right now, skip the full cycle description
- Reframe — The read is off; correct it and the analysis will follow the corrected framing
Proceed based on their selection. If the user reframes, incorporate the correction before running any analysis.
Output Format
Cycle Match: [cycle name] — [why it fits]
Current Position: [phase name] — [early / mid / late within phase]
Phase Signs
| Expected Sign for This Phase | Present? |
|---|---|
Typical Next Phase: [name + leading indicators of transition]
Divergences: [where this instance differs from the typical pattern + what that implies]
Implications: [what actions are appropriate now vs. premature vs. overdue]
Notes
If no cycle fits well, that is itself a finding — either the situation is genuinely novel or it requires a composite of two cycles. Name the mismatch explicitly rather than forcing a fit.
What's Next
After delivering this output, use AskUserQuestion to offer the next move:
- Question: "Cycles detected. What's next?"
- Header: "Next"
- Options:
/s4h-historical-cycle-detection— Look for historical evidence that confirms the cycles/s4h-temporal-timing-analysis— Time actions to the detected cycles/s4h-strategy-timing— Align strategy with the cycle timing- Done — Wrap up and synthesise what we have so far