analyze-us-bank-credit-deposit-decoupling

<essential_principles>

Under the traditional banking system, loans create deposits:

Bank issues loan → Borrower's account gains deposits
In theory: New loans ≈ New deposits

When this relationship "decouples":

Loans continue to expand, but deposits do not increase proportionally
This means some "force" is draining deposits from the system
In a QT environment, funds flow to money market funds, Treasuries, etc.

Key characteristics of the 2022-2023 QT cycle:

Period of absolute deposit contraction（2022 Q2 - 2023 Q1）
- Cumulative change in deposits once fell to -1.2 trillion USD
- This means total deposits were 1.2 trillion less than the base period (June 2022)
Period of deposit recovery(2023 Q2 to present)
- Deposits are gradually recovering, but still far behind loan growth
- Current cumulative change in deposits is about +0.5 trillion USD
Continued decoupling
- Cumulative increase in loans is about +2.1 trillion USD
- The gap is about 1.6 trillion USD

Indicator	Definition	Significance
Cumulative change in loans	loans(t) - loans(t0)	Expansion on the bank asset side
Cumulative change in deposits	deposits(t) - deposits(t0)	Change on the bank liability side
Decoupling Gap	Cumulative change in loans - Cumulative change in deposits	Degree of decoupling
Maximum deposit drawdown	min(Cumulative change in deposits)	Severity of deposit contraction
Deposit drawdown recovery ratio	(Current deposit change - Lowest point) /	Lowest point
Deposit Stress Ratio	Gap / Cumulative change in loans	Deposit shortfall ratio per unit of new loans

Indicator	FRED Series ID	Description	Public URL
Total bank loans	TOTLL	Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks	https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=TOTLL
Total bank deposits	DPSACBW027SBOG	Deposits, All Commercial Banks	https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DPSACBW027SBOG

Data frequency: Weekly Alignment method: Based on the latest common date

</essential_principles>

Output three layers of signals:

Cumulative Changes: Cumulative changes in loans and deposits
Deposit Dynamics: Maximum drawdown, recovery degree, and current status of deposits
Decoupling Assessment: Assessment of decoupling degree and macro interpretation

<quick_start>

Fastest way: Use FRED public CSV (no API Key required)

Step 1: Install dependencies

pip install pandas numpy requests matplotlib

Step 2: Run quick analysis

cd scripts
python decoupling_analyzer.py --quick

Step 3: Run full analysis (including visualization)

python decoupling_analyzer.py \
  --start 2022-06-01 \
  --output ../../output/decoupling_$(date +%Y-%m-%d).json

Step 4: Generate visualization charts (Bloomberg-style area chart)

python visualize_decoupling.py \
  --start 2022-06-01 \
  --output ../../output/credit_deposit_decoupling_$(date +%Y-%m-%d).png

Output example：

{
  "period": "2022-06 to 2026-01",
  "cumulative_changes": {
    "loans_billion_usd": 2070.5,
    "deposits_billion_usd": 506.8,
    "gap_billion_usd": 1563.7
  },
  "deposit_dynamics": {
    "max_drawdown_billion_usd": -1200.0,
    "max_drawdown_date": "2023-04-12",
    "recovery_from_trough_billion_usd": 1706.8,
    "recovery_ratio": 1.42
  },
  "assessment": {
    "decoupling_status": "severe",
    "deposit_stress_ratio": 0.755,
    "phase": "recovery_but_lagging"
  }
}

</quick_start>

Quick check - View the latest credit-deposit decoupling status
Full analysis - Run full analysis and generate visualization charts
Methodology learning - Understand the accounting logic and macro significance of credit creation decoupling

Please select or directly provide analysis parameters.

After routing, execute the corresponding script and generate visualization charts.

Visualization output: Credit-deposit decoupling area chart

Adopting Bloomberg Intelligence style, Reference the native FRED chart design:

Chart Features：

Area Chart: Clearly shows the volume of cumulative changes
Blue Area: Cumulative change in loans (Loans & Leases)
Red Area: Cumulative change in deposits (Deposits)
0 Axis Line: Clearly marks the baseline
Value Annotations: The latest values are annotated on the right side of the chart

Color Scheme (Following Bloomberg Specifications)：

Background:#1a1a2e(Dark Blue-Black)
Loans Area:#4a90d9(Blue)
Deposits Area:#d94a4a(Red)
Text:#ffffff(White)
Grid:#2d2d44(Dark Gray)

Quick Plot：

cd scripts
python visualize_decoupling.py \
  --start 2022-06-01 \
  --output ../../output/credit_deposit_decoupling_YYYY-MM-DD.png

Output Path：output/credit_deposit_decoupling_YYYY-MM-DD.png

Chart Interpretation：

The blue area continues to expand → banks continue to lend
The red area was once negative → absolute contraction in deposits (2022-2023)
The red area rebounds but lags behind the blue → decoupling persists

<input_schema>

</input_schema>

<output_schema> Complete Output Structure：

{
  "skill": "analyze_bank_credit_deposit_decoupling",
  "version": "2.0.0",
  "status": "success",
  "analysis_period": {
    "start": "2022-06-01",
    "end": "2026-01-07"
  },
  "data_sources": {
    "loans": {
      "series_id": "TOTLL",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=TOTLL"
    },
    "deposits": {
      "series_id": "DPSACBW027SBOG",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DPSACBW027SBOG"
    }
  },
  "cumulative_changes": {
    "loans_billion_usd": 2070.5,
    "deposits_billion_usd": 506.8,
    "gap_billion_usd": 1563.7,
    "gap_trillion_usd": 1.56
  },
  "deposit_dynamics": {
    "max_drawdown_billion_usd": -1200.0,
    "max_drawdown_date": "2023-04-12",
    "current_vs_trough_billion_usd": 1706.8,
    "recovery_ratio": 1.42,
    "phase": "recovery_but_lagging"
  },
  "assessment": {
    "decoupling_status": "severe",
    "deposit_stress_ratio": 0.755,
    "interpretation": "每新增 $1 貸款，僅有 $0.24 形成存款"
  },
  "macro_implication": "銀行信貸與存款出現嚴重脫鉤..."
}

</output_schema>

<success_criteria> When the analysis is successful, it should produce:

Time series data for the two indicators: bank loans and deposits
Calculation of cumulative changes (starting from the base period)
Maximum Drawdown of deposits and its date
Deposit Recovery Ratio
Decoupling Gap and Deposit Stress Ratio
Bloomberg-style area chart（output/credit_deposit_decoupling_YYYY-MM-DD.png）
Actionable macro interpretation </success_criteria>

<scripts_index>

Script	Command	Purpose
decoupling_analyzer.py	`--quick`	Quickly check the latest signal
decoupling_analyzer.py	`--start DATE`	Full Analysis
visualize_decoupling.py	`--start DATE --output`	Generate a Bloomberg-style area chart
</scripts_index>

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