analyze-copper-supply-concentration-risk

<essential_principles>

Market narratives must be quantifiably verifiable. The three propositions correspond to three sets of indicators:

Proposition	Core question	Quantitative indicators
A. Concentration	Is supply overly concentrated?	CR4, CR5, share ranking
B. Structural decline	Is Chile in structural decline?	Peak year, drawdown from peak
C. Substitute dependence	Does it depend on Peru/DRC?	Combined share of Peru + DRC vs Chile's share

Note: Because MacroMicro only provides breakdown data for 5 countries, the HHI indicator is not applicable to this analysis.

The only primary source, using Chrome CDP fully automatedscraping of Highcharts chart data.

URL: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/91500/wbms-copper-mine-production-total-world
Caliber: mined copper content (copper metal content of mine production)
Available series: World, Chile, Peru, DRC, China, US

</essential_principles>

Output two layers of analysis:

Concentration: Country share ranking, CR4/CR5
Chile vs Replacers: Chile vs emerging substitute countries (Peru + DRC) share comparison

<quick_start>

Fully automated execution (no manual Chrome operation required)

Step 1: Install dependencies

pip install requests websocket-client pandas numpy matplotlib

Step 2: One-click data scraping (automatically starts/stops Chrome)

cd scripts
python fetch_copper_production.py

The script will automatically:

Start Chrome in debug mode
Wait for the page to load (~40 seconds)
Extract Highcharts data
Save to cache/copper_production.csv
Close Chrome

Step 3: Generate Bloomberg-style visualization charts

python visualize_copper_concentration.py

Output：output/copper_concentration.png

</quick_start>

Quick chart - directly generate a Bloomberg-style concentration chart
Full analysis - concentration trend analysis from 1970 to present (including data tables)
Chile trend - analysis of Chile's production share and drawdown from peak
Substitute assessment - analysis of Peru+DRC substitute dependence

Please select or directly provide analysis parameters.

After routing, execute the corresponding command.

<directory_structure>

analyze-copper-supply-concentration-risk/
├── SKILL.md                              # 本文件（路由器）
├── skill.yaml                            # 前端展示元數據
├── scripts/
│   ├── fetch_copper_production.py        # 全自動 CDP 數據爬蟲
│   └── visualize_copper_concentration.py # Bloomberg 風格視覺化
├── cache/
│   ├── copper_production.csv             # 數據快取
│   └── copper_production_cache.json      # 原始 JSON 快取
└── output/
    └── copper_concentration.png          # 輸出圖表

</directory_structure>

<scripts_index>

Script	Command	Purpose
fetch_copper_production.py	`python fetch_copper_production.py`	Fully automated CDP scraping (automatically starts/stops Chrome)
fetch_copper_production.py	`--force-refresh`	Force re-scrape (ignore cache)
fetch_copper_production.py	`--start-year 1970`	Specify start year
visualize_copper_concentration.py	`python visualize_copper_concentration.py`	Generate Bloomberg-style charts
visualize_copper_concentration.py	`--output path/to/output.png`	Specify output path
</scripts_index>

Visualization output: Bloomberg-style copper supply concentration dashboard

Includes two charts (arranged vertically):

Country share stacked area chart：Chile, Peru, DRC, China, US, Others
Chile vs emerging substitute countries: Chile vs Peru+DRC share comparison, marking the crossover point

Color scheme: Bloomberg dark theme

Background: #1a1a2e
Chile: #ff6b35 (orange-red)
Peru: #00bfff (sky blue)
DRC: #00ff88 (green)
Peru+DRC: #00d4aa (teal)

Quick plot：

cd scripts
python visualize_copper_concentration.py

Output path：output/copper_concentration.png

<output_example> 2023 key indicators：

Country	Share
Chile	23.5%
Peru + DRC	25.2%
China	7.5%
US	5.0%

Key findings：

Chile's share peak: 37.2% (2004)
Chile's current share: 23.5% (2023)
Peak drawdown: 13.7pp
In 2023, Peru+DRC surpassed Chile for the first time(share reversal) </output_example>

<success_criteria> A successful analysis should produce:

Data has been retrieved from MacroMicro fully automaticallyscraped and cached
Country share rankings (Chile, Peru, DRC, China, US, Others)
Chile peak year and drawdown analysis
Peru+DRC substitution trend
Bloomberg-style visualization charts
Clearly annotate the data source </success_criteria>

About this skill