macro-risk-monitor

Macro Risk Early-Warning Monitoring Skill

Overview

This skill simulates the risk-monitoring perspective of a macro strategy researcher. By continuously tracking core macroeconomic indicators, it automatically identifies data anomalies (such as significantly below/above expectations, trend inflection points), accurately provides early warning of key risks such as economic downturn, rising inflation, deflationary spiral, and policy shifts, and outputs a professionalMacroeconomic Risk Early-Warning Report。

Data Acquisition Strategy

Core Data Source: gildata-aidata

All domestic macroeconomic data, policy, public opinion, liquidity, and market data are preferentially obtained through the gildata-aidata service.

Data Requirement	Recommended Tool	Description
Macro Data	MacroIndustryEDB	Query economic indicators such as China macro, industry economy, and international macro (supports weekly/monthly data)
Policy Meetings	PolicyMeetingsList	Dynamics and content of policy meetings in the domestic economic and financial field
Official Speeches	OfficialSpeechEventList	Speeches and activity information of important domestic and international officials
Laws and Regulations	LawsRegulations	Laws and regulations information, filtered by type and keywords
Macro Public Opinion	MacroNewslist	Macro public opinion, filtered by region and sentiment type for economic forecasts and events
Macro Analysis Views	MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints	Analysis views on macro dimensions such as GDP, CPI, PMI, and policy in research reports
Capital Flows	StockMarketCapitalFlow	Statistics on capital inflows and outflows in the stock market
Northbound Capital	HSGTTradeStats	Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Stock Connect market trading statistics (northbound/southbound capital)
Margin Trading Data	MarginTradeStats	Statistics such as margin financing and securities lending balances, purchase amounts, and sales volumes
Index Interval Market Data	IndexRangeQuotation	A-share index interval market data (for weekly reports, to obtain weekly gains/losses)
Bond Market Data	MostActiveRateBondQuotation	Yields and gains/losses of the most active interest rate bonds
Overseas Markets	web_search	Supplementary queries on the Federal Reserve, overseas inflation, U.S. Treasuries, etc. (when Gildata coverage is insufficient)

Data Acquisition Priority

1. Domestic Macro and Policy: Prioritize MacroIndustryEDB + PolicyMeetingsList + OfficialSpeechEventList
2. Public Opinion and Views: Prioritize MacroNewslist + MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints
3. Capital and Market Data: Prioritize StockMarketCapitalFlow + HSGTTradeStats + IndexRangeQuotation + MostActiveRateBondQuotation
4. Overseas Data: Use web_search for supplementary queries (such as the latest Federal Reserve decision, U.S. Treasury yields, etc.)

Execution Process

Phase One: Core Data Capture and Anomaly Identification

1. Core Macro Indicator Monitoring

   • Tool：gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB
   • Query Example：

     调用 gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB
     query: "GDP PMI CPI PPI 社融 M1 M2 进出口 工业增加值 社零"
     time_range: "最近 3 个月"
     

   • Growth Category: GDP (seasonally adjusted/year-on-year), manufacturing PMI, services PMI, industrial value added, total retail sales of consumer goods, export value.
   • Inflation Category: CPI (headline/core), PPI, PCE (US), crude oil prices, copper prices.
   • Credit/Liquidity: Aggregate financing increment/stock growth rate, M1/M2 growth rates and the scissors gap, credit structure (medium- to long-term/short-term).
   • External/Foreign Exchange: China-US 10Y yield spread, US dollar index, RMB exchange rate (onshore/offshore), northbound capital flows.

2. Anomaly identification logic (warning triggers)

   • Trend breakdown: e.g., PMI declines for 2 consecutive months and falls below the 50 boom-or-bust line; aggregate financing growth rate falls below its historical low percentile (e.g., <8%).
   • Larger-than-expected deviation: The deviation between the actual value and the market expectation exceeds 2 standard deviations (e.g., CPI unexpectedly breaks above 3% or turns negative).
   • Structural divergence: e.g., M2 grows strongly but M1 shrinks (capital idling/declining corporate vitality); exports grow strongly but the exchange rate depreciates (capital outflow pressure).
   • Threshold trigger: The US 10Y Treasury yield breaks through a key psychological level (e.g., 4.5% or 5%); the RMB exchange rate depreciates sharply (e.g., daily decline >0.5%).

Phase Two: Risk Assessment and Qualification

1. Risk type identification

   • Economic downturn/recession risk: Growth indicators weaken across the board, credit contracts, employment deteriorates.
   • Inflation/stagflation risk: Inflation remains high (CPI/PPI both rise), while growth stagnates or declines.
   • Deflation risk: Prices continue to decline, real interest rates rise, and the debt burden increases.
   • Policy shift risk: Changes in central bank wording (e.g., from "precise and forceful" to "prudent and neutral"), marginal tightening of liquidity, and exchange rate pressure forcing policy contraction.
   • External shock risk: Larger-than-expected Fed rate hikes, energy supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts, escalation of trade sanctions.

2. Risk level assessment

   • 🔴 High risk: Multiple core indicators deteriorate in concert, systemic risk probability is high, and strategy needs to be adjusted immediately.
   • 🟠 Watch: Key indicators show signs of deterioration, requiring close tracking and subsequent data verification.
   • 🟡 Observe: A single indicator fluctuates, or there is short-term disturbance, while the overall trend remains unchanged.
   • 🟢 Safe: Data are stable or improving, and risk is controllable.

Phase Three: Transmission Paths and Asset Impact

1. Macro transmission analysis

   • Real economy level: Impact on corporate profitability (revenue/profit margin), household income and willingness to consume, and the job market.
   • Policy level: Possible central bank hedging measures (rate cuts/RRR cuts/exchange rate intervention) and cases where policy space is constrained.

2. Asset pricing reaction

   • Equities: Dual squeeze or support from the numerator side (downward revision of earnings expectations) and the denominator side (rise in risk premium/change in risk-free rate).
   • Bonds: Safe-haven sentiment drives yields down (bull market), or inflation/policy tightening causes yields to rise (bear market).
   • Foreign Exchange: Changes in interest rate spreads and the direction of capital flows determine exchange rate movements, and the intensity of the central bank's countercyclical adjustment.
   • Commodities: Inflation expectations and shifts in supply-demand dynamics, the divergence between gold (safe-haven/anti-inflation) and industrial metals (growth expectations).

Phase Four: Response Logic and Strategy Recommendations

1. Response Strategy Generation
   • Macro Response: Recommended policy hedging tools to watch (such as fiscal stimulus, structural monetary tools).
   • Investment Defense: Reduce risk exposure, increase allocation to defensive assets (high dividends, short-term bonds, cash, gold).
   • Investment Offense: Seek structural opportunities that benefit from the risk (such as upstream resources that benefit from inflation, long-term bonds that benefit from recession).
   • Hedging Tools: Use options, futures, or inverse ETFs to hedge tail risk.

Phase Five: Warning Report Generation

1. Generate a Markdown-format report

   Use the following template structure to generate the final report:

# 宏观经济风险预警报告

> 报告日期：YYYY-MM-DD
> 预警等级：🔴 高危 / 🟠 关注 / 🟡 观察 / 🟢 安全
> 核心风险：[衰退风险 / 通胀风险 / 通缩风险 / 政策转向风险 / 汇率风险]

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## 一、核心宏观数据异动监控

| 指标类别 | 核心指标 | 最新值 | 前值/预期 | 异动幅度 | 信号状态 |
|---------|---------|-------|----------|---------|---------|
| 增长 | 制造业 PMI | | | | |
| 增长 | 社融存量增速 | | | | |
| 通胀 | CPI 同比 | | | | |
| 通胀 | PPI 同比 | | | | |
| 流动性 | M1-M2 剪刀差 | | | | |
| 外部 | 中美 10Y 利差 | | | | |

### 1.1 异动数据解读
（详细分析偏离预期或历史极值的数据点，说明异动原因...）

---

## 二、风险研判与定性

### 2.1 核心风险点
（明确当前面临的主要风险类型，如：经济失速风险加剧、输入性通胀抬头等）

### 2.2 风险等级评估
- **等级**：🔴 / 🟠 / 🟡 / 🟢
- **依据**：（结合数据共振情况、政策空间、历史类比进行解释...）

---

## 三、传导路径与资产影响

### 3.1 宏观经济传导
（对企业盈利、就业、居民消费的具体冲击路径...）

### 3.2 大类资产定价反应
- **股市**：（盈利预期调整、风险偏好变化、风格切换...）
- **债市**：（避险需求、通胀预期、政策利率引导...）
- **汇市**：（利差驱动、资本流动、央行态度...）
- **商品**：（供需错配、金融属性、抗通胀需求...）

---

## 四、应对逻辑与策略建议

### 4.1 宏观应对建议
（政策层面可能的对冲手段及预期效果...）

### 4.2 投资应对策略
- **防御策略**：（降低仓位、增配红利/短债/黄金...）
- **结构性机会**：（受损较少的板块、受益于风险的板块...）
- **对冲工具**：（期权保护、期现套利、反向 ETF...）

---

## 五、后续监控重点

- **关键数据**：（未来 1-2 周需重点跟踪的指标，如非农、CPI、PMI 初值...）
- **重大事件**：（央行会议、重要官员讲话、地缘局势节点...）
- **预警触发条件**：（若出现什么信号，风险等级将升级...）

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*免责声明：本报告基于公开数据与宏观分析框架生成，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。*

Notes

• gildata-aidata priority: All domestic macro data, policy, capital, and market queries should prioritize the gildata-aidata service,web_search is only used to supplement overseas policy and high-frequency detail data.
• Data Timeliness: The latest released data must be used; if the data has not yet been published, it must be noted as "to be published" or replaced with high-frequency data (such as blast furnace operating rates, subway passenger volume, box office revenue, etc.).
• Logical Consistency: Risk assessment must be based on data anomalies, avoiding subjective assumptions. Asset impact analysis must conform to classic macroeconomic logic (such as the Merrill Lynch Clock, stock-bond yield spread).
• Distinguish Short Term from Long Term: Clarify whether the risk is a short-term disturbance (such as weather, base effects) or a trend inflection point (such as demographic structure, debt cycle); response strategies should be differentiated accordingly.
• Scenario Analysis: For risks with higher uncertainty, provide the response differences between the "baseline scenario" and the "extreme scenario."

Example Invocation

User input: "Generate a macro warning risk report"

Skill execution:

1. Obtain macro data: gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB
2. Obtain policy meetings: gildata-aidata PolicyMeetingsList
3. Obtain official speeches: gildata-aidata OfficialSpeechEventList
4. Obtain laws and regulations: gildata-aidata LawsRegulations
5. Obtain macro public opinion: gildata-aidata MacroNewslist + MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints
6. Obtain capital flows: gildata-aidata StockMarketCapitalFlow + HSGTTradeStats + MarginTradeStats
7. Obtain market data: gildata-aidata IndexRangeQuotation + MostActiveRateBondQuotation
8. Supplement overseas data: web_search queries the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasuries, etc.
9. Write the report: generate a Markdown-format macro warning report according to the template
10. Output the report: directly display the complete report content in the conversation

Output Requirements

• The report uses standard Markdown format
• Must include an anomaly data table and risk level indicators
• Must provide clear asset impact direction and response strategies
• The report length should be controlled at 2,000-3,000 words, focusing on risk identification and response
• The language should be professional and objective, suitable for institutional investors' risk control and strategy reference

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Skill Update Log

Updated 2026-05-11：

• Core Data Source Change: Changed macro data queries to preferentially use the gildata-aidata service
• New Tool Matrix: Established a gildata-aidata tool query reference table for macro risk warning (MacroIndustryEDB, PolicyMeetingsList, OfficialSpeechEventList, LawsRegulations, etc.)
• Optimized Data Retrieval Order: Clarified that gildata-aidata is prioritized for domestic macro, policy, capital, and market data, while web_search is only used to supplement overseas policy details
• Removed Single web_search Dependency: The original skill mainly relied on web_search, and now fully integrates the gildata-aidata professional macro and public opinion database