era-alpha

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This skill is generated from skills/era-alpha.md so Claude Code and Codex users share one canonical workflow.

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• Preserve the research quality rules from AGENTS.md: cross-check financial data, use exact arithmetic tools for valuation/math, and clearly label uncertainty and source gaps.

Era α Catcher: A framework for identifying, validating, and holding high-growth core assets

Execute the "Era α Four-Step Method" for the $ARGUMENTS industry/direction: build an industry cognition map → ask the core questions yourself → validate across all dimensions → hold until the inflection point. The goal is to identify the α companies in today's most core high-growth industries that truly have pricing power, have moats, and can sustainably outperform peers, and to provide entry and exit discipline.

Methodology source and essence

Derived from a professional investor's four-step operating manual, the essence in one sentence:Build wealth on cognition, not on luck or emotion. The original four steps (read a year of financial reports to build a map → ask yourself about the core high-growth industries and core α → enter after full validation via financial reports + research + industry + macro → hold firmly until the fundamental inflection point) are the training path of a professional player. This skill has three built-in revisions that make it an executable path:

1. Revision one (streamline scope): Do not cover all industries; focus on 2-3 core links of the specified track and go deep and thorough. Truly understanding three to five companies is better than knowing a thousand.
2. Revision two (high-frequency data cross-validation): Financial reports are a health check report from three months ago; they must be corrected with real-time thermometers using high-frequency industry data (weekly/monthly shipments, prices, orders, installations, penetration rates).
3. Revision three (valuation anchor): In the long term, "what is high can go higher," but entering when the P/E exceeds the historical mean by 3 standard deviations may mean losing time for a long period. Go heavy when reasonable or undervalued, reduce when clearly bubbly, clear out when the inflection point is confirmed—do not buy with eyes closed.

Division of labor with existing skills:

• industry-research focuses on panoramic slices of the industry chain;industry-funnel focuses on whole-market funnel screening
• era-alpha focuses on α identification of "era-level high-growth mainlines" + validation of growth sustainability + holding/exit discipline, with a narrower focus, deeper validation, and a clear inflection-point checklist

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Step one: Industry cognition map (the focused version of the original "read 365 financial reports")

Build an industry-chain cognition map for the target track; for each link, answer:

1. What stage is this link in? (Introduction/growth/maturity/decline, positioned using penetration rate and growth rate)
2. Business model and way of making money? (Gross margin, expense ratio, matching of cash flow and profit)
3. Competitive landscape? (CR3, who holds pricing power, whether the moat is technology/scale/ecosystem/license)
4. Who are the α candidates in each link? (Screen on three dimensions: revenue growth rate, ROE trend, market share changes)

Information source requirements: Primarily first-hand materials such as prospectuses, annual/quarterly reports, and earnings call minutes; brokerage views are only clues, not conclusions. A-shares/Hong Kong stocks/US stocks/unlisted candidates must all be covered; do not omit them because materials are hard to find.

Output: Industry-chain link table (link | stage | landscape | α candidates | one-sentence reason), and from it select the 2-3 most worthwhile core links to go deep on (Revision one).

Step two: Ask the core questions yourself (do not listen to others)

Answer using the data from step one; citing "market consensus" or "institutional views" as evidence is prohibited:

1. What is the most core and fastest-growing link in this track right now? : Let the data speak: growth rate, penetration rate, order visibility.
2. Who is the core α in this link? Criteria: pricing power (gross margin higher than peers and stable or improving), moat (what can competitors not catch up with within three years), quality of growth (revenue growth accompanied by cash flow growth, not growth on credit).
3. Why is it and not the second player? You must be able to explain the difference between α and β in one sentence; if you cannot, you do not understand it.

Output: 1-3 core α + a clear "why is it" argument.

Step 3: Comprehensive verification (financial reports + high-frequency data cross-check)

For each core α, ask the five questions on growth sustainability; only if all dimensions consistently point to "high growth is sustainable" does it count as understood:

Dimension	Verification content
Financial reports	Revenue/profit growth trend over the last 4-8 quarters, gross margin direction, forward-looking items such as contract liabilities/inventory/construction in progress
High-frequency data (Revision 2)	Weekly/monthly real-time indicators for that segment (shipments, prices, tenders, traffic, token call volume, etc.), and whether they are consistent with the financial report trend
Industry tracking	Policy direction, whether the technology route risks being disrupted, supply-side capacity expansion pace (oversupply is the biggest killer of growth stocks)
Competitive landscape	Direction of market share changes, threat of new entrants, customer concentration and bargaining power
Macro	Interest rate environment, position in the capex cycle, geopolitical/regulatory variables

If any dimension shows contradictory signals, it must be clearly written out; vague glossing over is not allowed.

Step 4: Valuation anchor and entry (Revision 3, replacing "ignore the stock price")

1. Where does the current PE/PS sit in its own historical percentile? Does it exceed the historical mean +3 standard deviations?
2. Do valuation and growth match? (PEG perspective: high growth can digest high valuation, but you need to calculate clearly how many years it takes)
3. Choose one of three conclusions:Undervalued/reasonably valued, can enter with a heavy position、Somewhat expensive but growth can digest it, can hold or scale in、Clearly a bubble, only watch and do not buy。
4. Give entry method recommendations: lump sum/scaled in/wait for a pullback to what level.

Step 5: Holding discipline and inflection point checklist

Holding discipline: As long as the fundamentals are all normal (growth has not slowed, the landscape has not deteriorated, penetration is still rising, macro has not reversed), stock price fluctuations are noise, and no matter what is said, you must not casually exit.

Inflection point checklist(must be listed for each α, observable and falsifiable item by item):

Level	Examples of inflection point signals
Macro inflection point	Monetary policy shift, signal that the capex cycle has peaked
Industry inflection point	Oversupply and price collapse, technology route disrupted, penetration peaking, policy reversal
Company inflection point	Departure of core management, gross margin declining for two consecutive quarters, market share being eroded, contract liabilities turning to negative growth

For each signal, write clearlywhich data to observe and how often to check it, turning "inflection point" from a feeling into a checklist.

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Execution method

1. When the data scale is large, dispatch research Agents in parallel by industry chain segment (one per segment), requiring online access to the latest financial reports and high-frequency data, and returning structured facts (data + source), not opinions.
2. The main thread synthesizes the report according to steps one through five.
3. Follow the financial-data skill's cross-validation specifications; key figures (growth rate, gross margin, valuation percentile) must be annotated with the data as-of date.

Report Structure

一、行业认知地图（环节表 + 核心环节选择理由）
二、核心问题的回答（最核心高增长环节 + 核心α + 为什么是它）
三、增长可持续性验证（五维度逐项 + 矛盾信号明示）
四、估值锚点与介入建议
五、持有纪律与拐点清单（可观察、可证伪）
六、本报告可能错在哪（至少 3 条自我证伪）

Style requirements: data density first, retain all hard data, cut scaffolding language; express purely in Chinese; do not attach any investor names, name chapters by analytical dimension.