Data dependencies and execution prerequisites
It is recommended to use Wind wind-mcp-skill to obtain underlying data. Before execution, first check whether there is already wind-mcp-skilllocally; if not, prompt the user to install:
# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
# Gitee 镜像（国内）
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
Skill positioning
This skill is used to quickly answer "roughly how expensive is this stock now" and explain the market expectations behind whether it is expensive or cheap. The output focus is not to build a complete valuation model, but within limited time to use appropriate valuation measures, historical percentiles, and peer comparisons to form a preliminary judgment of the current odds.
Execution process
Step 1: Confirm the applicable valuation perspective
First determine what valuation measure is more suitable for observing the company. Common ones include:
- Profit-driven companies, look at profit-based multiples
- High-growth companies or companies whose profits are not yet stable, look at revenue-based multiples
- Companies with obvious asset attributes, look at net assets or replacement value
- Companies with obvious cyclical attributes, look at the cycle position and central valuation
If the company is in a special stage, it should be clearly stated that traditional valuation measures may be distorted.
Step 2: Extract the current valuation level and historical range
Collect current valuation indicators and, as much as possible, judge them by placing them back into historical coordinates:
- Whether it is currently at a historical high, middle, or low position
- Whether there is an obvious premium or discount compared with several key past stages
- Whether the current valuation has significantly deviated from the pace of change in its own operations
If the historical data itself is affected by extreme events, it should be explained separately and must not be used mechanically.
Step 3: Add peer and industry references
Valuation judgment cannot rely only on its own history; it must also look at relative position:
- Valuation differences between industry leaders and second-tier companies
- Common reasons why the market gives a premium or discount
- Whether the company's current position reasonably reflects its competitive position, growth quality, and risk structure
If it is a thematic stock or a highly volatile stock, also pay attention to short-term distortions in valuation caused by sentiment factors.
Step 4: Explain the expectation requirements behind the "valuation position"
A truly useful valuation judgment is not the "high/low multiple" itself, but:
- How strong a growth and profitability improvement assumption the current price implies
- What conditions need to be fulfilled in the future for the current valuation to hold up
- Which variables, once they fail, are most likely to compress the valuation
This step should reconnect valuation with operating variables.
Step 5: Determine the triggers for re-rating or de-rating
List the factors most likely to change the valuation level in the future, such as:
- Earnings beating or missing expectations
- Business structure improving or deteriorating
- Changes in industry cycle trends
- Policy, financing, market style rotation
Help users understand that valuation is not a static number, but the result of dynamic expectations.
Step 6: Output concise conclusions and usage suggestions
Finally, clearly answer:
- What position this stock's current valuation is roughly at
- Whether this position is reasonable,偏高 or偏低
- Whether it is more suitable to continue observing, pay attention on dips, or require stronger fulfillment before it is worth approaching
Output structure
{Stock Name} Valuation Snapshot ({YYYY-MM-DD})
I. Valuation Conclusion
- Current Valuation Assessment: {Undervalued / Fair / Overvalued}
- Historical Position: {Low / Mid / High}
- Relative Position vs. Peers: {Discount / In Line / Premium}
II. Core Valuation Table
| Dimension | Current Situation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Valuation Metric | {Metric} | {Why It Applies} |
| Current Level | {Value} | {Explanation} |
| Historical Percentile | {Position} | {Explanation} |
| Peer Comparison | {Result} | {Explanation} |
III. What Expectations Are Implied by the Current Price
- {Expectation 1}
- {Expectation 2}
- {Expectation 3}
IV. Why There Is a Premium or Discount
Reasons for Premium/Discount
- {Reason 1}
- {Reason 2}
Unreasonable Aspects
- {Unreasonable Point 1}
- {Unreasonable Point 2}
V. Key Triggers for Future Valuation Changes
- Conditions Favorable for Re-rating: {Condition}
- Risks Leading to De-rating: {Condition}
VI. Usage Recommendations
- Suitable Action: {Continue Watching / Wait for Verification / Worth Close Tracking}
- Variable Most Worth Watching: {Variable}
Quality Requirements
- First choose the right valuation metric, then discuss whether it is high or low; do not mechanically apply a single multiple.
- Valuation conclusions must return to operations and expectations, and must not remain at the surface level of numbers.
- Both historical and peer comparisons must clearly explain the metric and boundaries to avoid misleading comparisons.
- If the company is in an abnormal phase, the limitations of the valuation reference should be clearly pointed out.
- The output should serve "odds judgment," rather than writing valuation as an isolated math problem.