theme_leader_identification_skill

Theme Leader Identification Skill

Data dependencies and execution prerequisites

It is recommended to use Wind wind-mcp-skill to obtain underlying data. Before execution, first check whether there is already locally wind-mcp-skill; if not, prompt the user to install:

# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

# Gitee 镜像（国内）
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

Skill positioning

This skill is used to identify, in hot themes or thematic market moves, who is the true leader, who is the core troop, who is merely following the trend, and whether the theme is currently in the initiation, strengthening, diffusion, or ebb stage. The output focus is not simply ranking by price gain, but judging the position within the theme, driving ability, sustainability, and trading crowding, helping users focus their attention on the most representative targets.

Function overview

The core function of this skill is: identify the leaders, core troops, and follower stocks in hot themes, and determine who is most worth tracking.

It emphasizes judging theme drivers, stock recognition, trading structure, industry logic, and capital preference together, helping users more clearly understand the role stratification within the theme.

Use cases

• After a hot theme heats up rapidly, it is necessary to determine which is the most core target.
• The user hopes to avoid chasing follower stocks as if they were leaders during theme rotation.
• The team conducts post-market review and needs to organize changes in position within the theme.
• When a new theme erupts, it is necessary to quickly establish an understanding of the mainline and echelon.

Working principles

1. Leader identification cannot be based only on short-term price gain ranking; it must combine recognition, driving ability, and absorption quality.
2. It is necessary to distinguish the four levels: leader, core troop, follower stock, and laggard stock.
3. Theme analysis must state the stage it is in, avoiding discussing position apart from the cycle.
4. If the theme logic is weak or has clearly ebbed, the value of discussing leaders should be reduced.
5. The main text does not explicitly describe the internal invocation process.

Execution process

Step 1: Confirm theme boundaries and observation window

First define the theme scope to be analyzed this time:

• Whether it is a single clear theme or a collection of multiple similar concepts
• Whether to observe the current day's hotspots or the持续 mainline of the past week
• Whether the user wants to judge the trading leader or the core asset of the medium-term mainline

If the theme boundary is unclear, it will directly cause subsequent role judgments to be distorted.

Step 2: Sort out theme drivers and core narrative

First answer "why the market is trading this theme." Focus on breaking down:

• Whether the driver comes from policy, industry trends, prosperity data, event catalysts, or pure emotional diffusion
• Whether the theme has a real industry mapping, or concept generalization is severe
• Which main narrative the market currently cares about most
• Whether this narrative is sufficient to support continued fermentation of the theme

Step 3: Establish the stock list within the theme and role stratification

Around the main stocks within the theme, first do preliminary stratification:

• Leader: highest recognition, strongest driving ability, most concentrated capital absorption
• Core troop: large capacity, high stability, and a confirming effect on the theme direction
• Follower stock: driven by theme sentiment, but with weaker independent position
• Laggard stock: declining presence within the theme or clearly lagging performance

The goal of this step is to establish a "structural map" rather than immediately giving trading recommendations.

Step 4: Check the recognizability and leadership of the leading candidate

True leaders usually share several common characteristics:

• Price performance is leading and sustained
• Active trading and high market discussion
• When it strengthens, other stocks within the theme are driven up
• During pullbacks, it often becomes the priority target for capital to flow back into

If a stock only has a large single-day gain but lacks the ability to drive others, it should be cautiously defined as a leader.

Step 5: Combine industry mapping and fundamental support

Theme leaders are not necessarily the strongest in fundamentals, but they cannot be completely detached from business relevance. It is necessary to judge:

• Whether the company's relevance to the main theme line is real and direct
• Whether its business, orders, products, or industry position support its leader status
• Whether theme speculation is severely ahead of fundamentals
• If sentiment fades, which targets are more likely to retain a premium

Step 6: Judge the stage of the theme and its internal evolution

Leader identification must be viewed within the theme cycle. It is necessary to distinguish:

• Launch stage: who ignites first, who provides recognizability
• Strengthening stage: who best attracts incremental capital
• Diffusion stage: who drives the main force and follower stocks to catch up
• Fading stage: who can still resist declines, who drops out first

Step 7: Output a priority watchlist and risk reminders

Based on a comprehensive ranking of "theme status + capital absorption + industry mapping + stage position", form:

• The leaders most worthy of priority tracking
• The main force worth observing
• Follower targets that should not be misjudged as leaders

Also specify:

• Conditions for the theme to continue strengthening
• Scenarios in which leader status may be replaced
• Risk signals when the theme fades

Step 8: Integrate into a finished theme leader draft

The final output should help users know "who is the core of this theme, why it is it, what stage it is currently in, and what to watch next". The main text should retain only structured conclusions and a tracking framework.

Output structure

---

Theme leader identification ({YYYY-MM-DD})

I. 30-second conclusion

• Current theme leader: {name}
• Current main force: {name}
• Theme stage: {launch / strengthening / diffusion / fading}
• Reason most worth tracking: {one sentence}

II. Theme structure overview

Stock	Theme role	Recognizability	Leadership	Industry mapping	Current judgment
{target 1}	{leader/main force/follower/dropped out}	{high/medium/low}	{high/medium/low}	{strong/medium/weak}	{description}
{target 2}	{role}	{level}	{level}	{level}	{description}

III. Breakdown of core targets

{stock name}

• Why it is core: {content}
• Theme mapping strength: {内容}
• Capital and trading characteristics: {内容}
• The most critical follow-up observation points: {内容}
• Signals of leader failure: {内容}

IV. Judgment of the theme stage

• Driving logic: {内容}
• Characteristics of the current stage: {内容}
• More likely direction of subsequent evolution: {内容}

V. Risk disclosure

• {Risk 1}
• {Risk 2}
• {Risk 3}

---

Quality requirements

1. Role stratification must cover leaders, core players, followers, and laggards.
2. Leaders must not be defined solely by ranking of price gains.
3. It must explain the theme stage and the evolution of the internal structure.
4. It must explain whether the industry mapping and the capital-driven effect match.
5. The output should serve hot-spot tracking and mainline judgment, rather than merely introducing the theme.