Data dependencies and execution prerequisites
It is recommended to use Wind wind-mcp-skill to obtain the underlying data. Before execution, first check whether wind-mcp-skillalready exists locally; if not, prompt the user to install:
# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
# Gitee 镜像（国内）
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
Skill positioning
This skill is used to track changes in the heat of a certain thematic subject and answer "is this theme hot right now, where does the heat come from, is it leader-driven or fully diffused, and has it already begun to crowd or ebb." The output focus is not simply listing related news, but helping the user determine the stage the theme is in, and whether to continue tracking, participate opportunistically, or reduce attention.
Execution process
Step 1: Define the theme boundary and observation period
First clarify what the theme to be tracked this time is, and define the boundary clearly:
- What is the core narrative corresponding to the theme name
- Which companies are core beneficiaries, and which are merely peripheral mappings
- Whether to observe a single theme or compare multiple similar themes
- Whether to look at intraday heat, weekly heat, or phased heat evolution
If the theme boundary is vague, first distinguish the core list from the peripheral list to avoid mixing unrelated targets into the heat judgment.
Step 2: Establish a multi-dimensional observation framework for theme heat
Heat should not be judged only by price rises and falls; it needs to be assessed comprehensively from multiple dimensions:
- The relative strength of the theme's core targets and follower targets
- The number of advancing stocks within the theme, persistence and completeness of the tier structure
- Whether trading activity rises in sync
- Whether news, policy and industry developments continue to provide new catalysts
- Whether market discussion heat is concentrated and continuously strengthening
The goal of this stage is to confirm whether the heat truly exists, rather than drawing conclusions based only on the performance of a few leaders.
Step 3: Determine the stage the theme is in
Combined with market performance and changes in the information flow, determine which stage the theme is currently closer to:
- Launch stage: a few early movers take the lead in showing unusual activity, and the market begins to form attention
- Strengthening stage: core targets continue to strengthen, and the logic is repeatedly verified
- Diffusion stage: mid-tier, second-line and peripheral mapping targets generally benefit
- Crowding stage: trading overheats, branches generalize, and pressure for realization rises
- Ebb stage: theme heat weakens, with only a few strong stocks maintaining performance
Stage judgments must have clear basis and cannot use only emotional expressions.
Step 4: Identify the source of heat and conditions for continuation
Further explain why the theme is hot, and what conditions are still needed for it to continue being hot:
- Whether it is policy stimulus, industry progress, earnings realization, or market style support
- Whether the current catalyst is a one-off event or a main line that can be continuously verified
- Whether the heat has already moved from narrative to earnings support
- If there are no new catalysts subsequently, whether the heat is likely to fall back quickly
Step 5: Judge crowding level and the possibility of risk release
A common problem with hot themes is not "whether there is logic," but "whether it is already too crowded." Focus on explaining:
- Whether core targets have already clearly front-run
- Whether peripheral targets have been excessively extended
- Has the theme's price gain and trading volume shown expansion detached from fundamental logic?
- Once sentiment cools, which segment will come under pressure first?
Step 6: Produce the final theme heat tracking draft
The final output should help users quickly determine whether the theme is worth continuing to track, waiting for divergence, rotating between high and low positions, or temporarily avoiding. The main text should only retain stage judgment, driver explanation, crowding risk, and follow-up observation points.
Output structure
{Theme Name} Heat Tracking ({YYYY-MM-DD})
I. 30-Second Conclusion
- Current heat level: {High / Medium / Low}
- Stage: {Launch / Strengthening / Diffusion / Crowded / Ebbing}
- Source of heat: {One sentence}
- Current recommendation: {Continue tracking / Prioritize the core / Guard against crowding / Do not chase highs for now}
II. Theme Scope Definition
- Core logic: {Content}
- Core targets: {Content}
- Peripheral mapping targets: {Content}
III. Heat Observation Panel
| Dimension | Current status | Judgment |
|---|---|---|
| Core target strength | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Follower target diffusion | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Trading activity | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| New catalyst supply | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Market discussion level | {Content} | {Judgment} |
IV. Heat Drivers and Conditions for Continuation
- Current strongest driver: {Content}
- Conditions for further strengthening: {Content}
- Most likely cause of stalling: {Content}
V. Crowding and Risk Warnings
- Signs of crowding: {Content}
- Segment most likely to ebb first: {Content}
- Misjudgments to avoid: {Content}
VI. Follow-Up Observation Checklist
- {Observation point 1}
- {Observation point 2}
- {Observation point 3}
Quality requirements
- Theme heat analysis must place "price performance, diffusion level, catalyst supply, and degree of crowding" under the same framework.
- A distinction must be made between core beneficiaries and peripheral mapping to avoid infinitely expanding the theme's extension.
- Stage judgments should be based on evidence and not merely on emotional wording.
- Both continuation conditions and ebbing risks need to be written at the same time, avoiding one-sided conclusions only.
- The output should serve hot spot tracking and rotation judgment, rather than being a simple hot spot summary.