Data dependencies and execution prerequisites
It is recommended to use Wind wind-mcp-skill to obtain the underlying data. Before execution, first check whether wind-mcp-skillalready exists locally; if not, prompt the user to install:
# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
# Gitee 镜像（国内）
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
Skill positioning
This skill is used to determine the overall state the market is currently in, answering "is now suitable for offense, suitable for defense, suitable for carefully selecting individual stocks, or is it necessary to slow the pace; is the market state currently switching; and what is driving that switch." The output focus is not a simple bullish or bearish call, but rather a market tier, evidence framework, switching clues, and position implications.
Execution flow
Step 1: Confirm the observation window and decision purpose
First clarify what decision this judgment serves:
- It is to judge the overall position
- It is to choose growth, value, cyclical, or defensive style
- It is for a weekly strategy update
- It is to address pacing issues caused by recent changes in state
At the same time, confirm whether the observation window is short-term, medium-term, or a phase-based framework. If the user does not specify, proceed by default according to the "current phase market state."
Step 2: Establish a market state judgment framework
Market tiering cannot rely only on index gains and losses; it needs to integrate the following levels:
- Index trends and key positions
- Market breadth and participation
- Whether the leading direction is clear
- Sentiment temperature and crowding level
- Macroeconomic environment, liquidity, and policy backdrop
- Whether earnings expectations or the financial reporting main line support the current market
The goal of this stage is to build a complete framework sufficient to support tier judgments.
Step 3: Classify the market state
After sufficient evidence, roughly classify the market into one of the following states:
- Offensive phase: risk appetite rises, the main line is clear, and diffusion is good
- Defensive phase: risk-aversion preference rises, and funds concentrate in low-volatility directions
- Oscillating phase: the main line is unclear, rotation is fast, and divergence is large
- Transition phase: the original main line loosens, and a new direction is still forming
When classifying, the basis must be given, not just a conclusion.
Step 4: Explain the primary and secondary causes of the state's formation
Further explain why the current state has formed, prioritizing decomposition of:
- Whether the macroeconomic and policy environment supports risk appetite
- Whether capital conditions and style preferences have changed
- Whether breadth, sentiment, and the main line mutually confirm each other
- If the state is switching, where the starting point of the switch comes from
Step 5: Identify state-switching signals and invalidation conditions
The most important thing in phase judgment is trackability, so it is necessary to clarify:
- Which signals can confirm that the current state continues to hold
- Which changes mean the state may switch
- Which risks would cause the current judgment to quickly become invalid
- If the judgment becomes invalid, which tier the market is more likely to switch to
Step 6: Form the market state tiering draft
The final output should help users quickly know "what posture should be used to face the market now." The main text should retain only the state classification, evidence explanation, switching signals, and position-level implications.
Output structure
Market State Classification ({YYYY-MM-DD})
I. 30-Second Conclusion
- Current Market Tier: {Offensive / Defensive / Oscillating / Transitioning}
- Core Evidence: {One sentence}
- Most Suitable Response Approach at Present: {Content}
- Biggest Risk Point: {Content}
II. State Judgment Panel
| Dimension | Current State | Implication for Tier Classification |
|---|---|---|
| Index Trend | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Market Breadth | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Mainline Clarity | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Sentiment Temperature | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Macro/Liquidity Environment | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Earnings Expectation Support | {Content} | {Judgment} |
III. Interpretation of Current State
- Why This Tier: {Content}
- Primary Reason: {Content}
- Secondary Reason: {Content}
IV. Transition Signals
- Conditions for Maintaining the Current State: {Content}
- Possible Pre-transition Signals: {Content}
- Signs That the Judgment Is Invalid: {Content}
V. Position and Style Implications
- Total Position Inspiration: {Content}
- Style Preference Inspiration: {Content}
- Actions Not Advisable: {Content}
VI. Follow-up Observation Checklist
- {Observation Point 1}
- {Observation Point 2}
- {Observation Point 3}
Quality Requirements
- Market state judgment must be based on multidimensional evidence and cannot be determined solely by index rises and falls.
- The three levels of the current tier, the reasons for its formation, and the transition conditions must be clearly defined.
- Breadth, sentiment, mainline, and macro background need to be placed within the same framework to improve consistency.
- If the state is not yet clear, "transitioning" or "oscillating" should be explicitly written, and it must not be forcibly categorized.
- The output must directly serve total position and style selection, rather than remaining at a macro summary.