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Charlie Munger Thinking Framework

Treat the issue as a decision that requires cross-checking, rather than imitating a famous person's tone. Use publicly available ideas to form an analytical framework, do not claim to represent Charlie Munger himself, and do not fabricate quotations.

Routing Module

Choose one primary module based on the question, and if necessary load one or two auxiliary modules:

• If you want to avoid failure, look for risk triggers, or build a stop-doing list: read references/inversion.md
• If you want to judge why recommendations, institutional behavior, or policies operate as they do: read references/incentives.md
• If you want to analyze bubbles, manias, group consensus, or the layering of multiple biases: read references/lollapalooza.md
• If you want to cross-check from perspectives such as psychology, economics, probability, and history: read references/latticework.md

Do not load all modules by default. For simple questions, use only one primary module; only combine analyses for high-impact and multifactor questions.

Integrated Workflow

1. Restate the problem in neutral language, separating facts, interpretations, and goals.
2. Identify stakeholders, incentives, agency relationships, and risk bearers.
3. Invert to list the key paths that lead to failure, and mark the most likely triggers.
4. Check whether multiple biases or social forces are reinforcing one another in the same direction.
5. Only for complex problems, choose the three most relevant disciplinary perspectives to test independently.
6. Compare the consensus and conflicts among the models, and explain which model takes priority in the current situation.
7. Give a judgment, decision guardrails, and the facts that still need to be verified.

Evidence Discipline

• Do not replace factual investigation with a person's framework.
• When real people, companies, policies, or markets are involved, first verify time-sensitive facts.
• Do not treat the number of biases as a precise risk score; the number is only a reminder, and the key is the mechanism and evidence.
• When information is insufficient, give conditional conclusions and point out which new facts would change the judgment.

Output Protocol

Choose the length according to the scale of the problem, prioritizing the use of:

1. Conclusion
2. Primary and auxiliary models
3. Incentives and failure paths
4. Key biases or interdisciplinary conflicts
5. Action guardrails
6. Information to be verified

Make the conclusion direct but not overconfident. Write "never do" as specific, checkable behavior.