Load context
On first use: Read ../../CLAUDE.md to obtain the discount rate configuration and sensitivity analysis variable settings.
/npv-irr-calculation — NPV / IRR Calculation and Sensitivity Analysis
Step 1: Confirm financial assumptions
□ 项目参数：
□ 初始投资：[X] 万元（Year 0）
□ 运营期：[X] 年
□ 折现率（WACC）：[X]% （或使用 CLAUDE.md 中配置的调整后折现率）
□ Revenue assumptions: □ Base year sales volume: [X] units □ Expected growth rate: [X]%/year □ Product unit price: [X] yuan/unit
□ Cost assumptions: □ Unit variable cost: [X] yuan/unit □ Annual fixed cost (excluding depreciation): [X] ten thousand yuan □ Depreciation (annual): [X] ten thousand yuan
□ Income tax rate: [X]% □ Terminal salvage value: [X] ten thousand yuan (if any)
---
## 第二步：构建 DCF 模型
□ Free cash flow (FCF) calculation: □ EBITDA = Revenue - Variable cost - Fixed cost □ EBIT = EBITDA - Depreciation □ Income tax = EBIT × Income tax rate □ NOPAT = EBIT - Income tax □ FCF = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capital expenditure - Change in working capital (if any) □ Final year FCF includes terminal salvage value and working capital recovery
□ Discount calculation: □ NPV = -Initial investment + Σ FCFt / (1+WACC)^t □ IRR = the discount rate that makes NPV = 0 (Excel IRR function)
□ Simple payback period: □ Year in which cumulative cash flow turns positive: [X] years [X] months
---
## 第三步：DCF 结果
□ NPV: [X] ten thousand yuan → ✅ NPV > 0: The project creates value → ⚠️ NPV ≈ 0 (±[X] ten thousand yuan): Marginal project, judge together with IRR → ❌ NPV < 0: The project destroys value
□ IRR: [X]% → vs threshold (from CLAUDE.md): [X]% → ✅ IRR > threshold + [X]%: Clearly feasible → ⚠️ IRR within threshold ±[X]%: Critical, needs support from other indicators → ❌ IRR < threshold: Clearly infeasible
□ Simple payback period: [X] years [X] months → vs operating period [X] years: [✅ Payback period < Operating period / ❌ Payback period > Operating period]
□ Overall judgment: [✅ Feasible / ⚠️ Marginally feasible / ❌ Infeasible]
---
## 第四步：单变量敏感性分析
□ Analysis variables (variables that must be analyzed as read from CLAUDE.md): □ Sales volume change ±10%: NPV [X] ten thousand / [X] ten thousand □ Price change ±10%: NPV [X] ten thousand / [X] ten thousand □ Cost change ±10%: NPV [X] ten thousand / [X] ten thousand □ Discount rate ±1%: NPV [X] ten thousand / [X] ten thousand
□ Most sensitive variable: [variable name] — sales volume/price/cost/discount rate □ NPV sensitivity to this variable: [High/Medium/Low]
□ Critical point at which NPV turns negative: □ NPV < 0 when sales volume decreases by more than [X]% □ NPV < 0 when price decreases by more than [X]% □ NPV < 0 when cost increases by more than [X]% □ NPV < 0 when discount rate increases by more than [X]%
---
## 第五步：多情景分析
□ Base scenario: □ NPV = [X] ten thousand yuan □ IRR = [X]%
□ Optimistic scenario (sales volume +[X]%, price +[X]%, cost -[X]%): □ NPV = [X] ten thousand yuan — [✅ >0 / ❌ <0] □ IRR = [X]%
□ Pessimistic scenario (sales volume -[X]%, price -[X]%, cost +[X]%): □ NPV = [X] ten thousand yuan — [✅ >0 / ❌ <0] □ IRR = [X]%
□ Overall conclusion: □ ✅ Robust project: NPV > 0 in all scenarios □ ⚠️ Marginal project: Base > 0, pessimistic < 0 □ ❌ High-risk project: Pessimistic < 0 and the gap is large
---
## 输出格式
═══════════════════════════════════════ DCF Valuation Report Project: [Project Name] Investment Amount: [X] ten thousand yuan Discount Rate: [X]% ═══════════════════════════════════════
[DCF Core Results] □ NPV: [X] ten thousand yuan — [✅ Value Created / ❌ Value Destroyed] □ IRR: [X]% — vs Hurdle [X]% — [✅ Meets Target / ❌ Below Target] □ Payback Period: [X] years [X] months
[Scenario Analysis]
| Scenario | Sales Volume Change | Price Change | Cost Change | NPV (ten thousand) | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | +[X]% | +[X]% | -[X]% | [X] | [X]% |
| Base | 0 | 0 | 0 | [X] | [X]% |
| Pessimistic | -[X]% | -[X]% | +[X]% | [X] | [X]% |
[Single-Variable Sensitivity] □ Most Sensitive Variable: [Variable Name] □ Critical Value: When [Variable] changes by more than [±X]%, NPV < 0
[Conclusion] □ Overall Judgment: [✅ Recommended / ⚠️ Caution / ❌ Not Recommended] □ Main Risks: [Description] □ Recommendations: [Description]
═══════════════════════════════════════