Load context
On first use: Read ../../CLAUDE.md to obtain scenario-level configuration (WACC assumptions/industry Beta/terminal value method).
/dcf-modeling — DCF Valuation Modeling
Examples
→ Example: The user says "Help me do a DCF valuation for the target company, with a 5-year forecast period and the Gordon growth model for terminal value." The system should invoke this skill and perform DCF valuation modeling.
→ Example: The user says "The DCF model is built, but the WACC assumptions are uncertain. Help me do a sensitivity analysis." The system should invoke this skill and perform WACC sensitivity analysis.
→ Example: The user says "The DCF result differs a lot from the comparable company method. Help me analyze the reasons for the difference." The system should invoke this skill, compare the DCF and comparable company method results, and analyze the difference.
Step 1: Historical Financial Analysis
Historical financial data ([most recent 3-5 years]):
□ 收入及增速：
| 年份 | 收入（万） | 增速 |
|------|----------|------|
| [YYYY] | [X] | [X]% |
| [YYYY] | [X] | [X]% |
| [最近一年] | [X] | [X]% |
□ EBITDA 及利润率：
| 年份 | EBITDA | 率 |
|------|--------|---|
| [最近一年] | [X]万 | [X]% |
□ 折旧摊销（D&A）：[X] 万
□ 资本支出（Capex）：[X] 万
□ 营运资本变动：[X] 万
□ 实际税率：[X]%
Summary of historical financial characteristics:
□ 收入增长特征：[稳定增长/波动/高成长]
□ EBITDA 率趋势：[上升/稳定/下降]
□ Capex 强度：[X]%（Capex/收入）
Step 2: Earnings Forecast
Forecast assumption inputs:
□ 收入预测：
→ 预测期：[X] 年（[YYYY] - [YYYY]）
→ 预测方法：[历史均值/行业增速/执行能力]
→ 假设收入增速：
| 年份 | 增速 | 收入（万） |
|------|------|----------|
| [YYYY] | [X]% | [X] |
| [YYYY] | [X]% | [X] |
| [稳定期首年] | [X]% | [X] |
□ EBITDA 率假设：
→ [采用历史均值/逐步改善/维持稳定]
→ 假设 EBITDA 率：[X]%（[YYYY]）→ [X]%（[YYYY]）
□ D&A 假设：[X] 万（维持历史水平/收入比例 [X]%）
□ Capex 假设：[X] 万（维持 [X] 万/收入 [X]%）
□ 营运资本假设：[按历史占收比]
□ 税率假设：[X]%（维持/逐步调整）
Forecast income statement:
| 年份 | 收入 | EBITDA | D&A | EBIT | 税率 | NOPAT |
|------|------|--------|-----|------|------|-------|
| [YYYY] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X]% | [X] |
Step 3: Free Cash Flow Calculation
FCF calculation:
□ NOPAT：[X] 万
□ + 折旧摊销：[X] 万
□ - Capex：[X] 万
□ - 营运资本变动：[X] 万
□ = 自由现金流（FCF）：[X] 万
□ 预测期 FCF：
| 年份 | FCF（万） |
|------|---------|
| [YYYY] | [X] |
| [YYYY] | [X] |
| [YYYY] | [X] |
| [YYYY] | [X] |
| [YYYY] | [X] |
Step 4: WACC Calculation
WACC inputs:
□ 股权成本（CAPM）：
→ 无风险利率 Rf：[X]%（10 年国债）
→ 市场风险溢价 ERP：[X]%
→ Beta：[X]（[行业/可比公司均值]）
→ 股权成本 = Rf + β × ERP = [X]%
□ 债务成本：
→ 税前债务成本：[X]%
→ 税率：[X]%
→ 税后债务成本 = [X]%
□ 资本结构：
→ 股权权重 E/V：[X]%
→ 债务权重 D/V：[X]%
□ WACC = E/V × Ke + D/V × Kd × (1-t)
= [X]% × [X]% + [X]% × [X]% × [1-X]%
= [X]%
Step 5: Terminal Value Calculation
Comparison of terminal value methods:
□ Gordon Growth Model（永续增长法）：
→ 永续增长率 g：[X]%（假设）
→ 终值 FCF：[X] 万（[稳定期首年]）
→ TV = FCF / (WACC - g) = [X] / ([X]% - [X]%) = [X] 万
□ Exit Multiple（退出倍数法）：
→ 假设退出 EBITDA 倍数：[X]x（行业均值）
→ 终值 = EBITDA × Multiple = [X] × [X]x = [X] 万
Terminal value adopted: [X] ten thousand ([method])
Step 6: Valuation Results and Sensitivity Analysis
Valuation results:
□ 预测期 FCF 现值（PV）：
= [X] / (1+[X]%)^1 + ... + [X] / (1+[X]%)^[N]
= [X] 万
□ 终值现值（PV of TV）：
= [X] / (1+[X]%)^[N]
= [X] 万
□ 企业价值（EV）= PV(FCF) + PV(TV) = [X] 万
□ 净债务 = 总债务 - 现金 = [X] 万
□ 股权价值 = EV - 净债务 = [X] 万
□ DCF 估值区间：[X-X] 万（中值 [X] 万）
Sensitivity analysis:
□ 对 WACC 和永续增长率的敏感性（股权价值 / 亿）：
| WACC \ g | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
|---------|------|------|------|
| [X]% | [X] | [X] | [X] |
| [X]% | [X] | [X] | [X] |
| [X]% | [X] | [X] | [X] |
□ 对收入增速的敏感性：
→ 收入增速 +/- [X]% → 股权价值 +/- [X] 万
Step 7: Generate DCF Valuation Report
═══════════════════════════════════════
DCF 估值报告
标的：[名称]
估值日期：[YYYY-MM-DD]
预测期：[X] 年（[YYYY]-[YYYY]）
═══════════════════════════════════════
【关键假设】
□ 收入增速：[X]% - [X]%（预测期）
□ EBITDA 率：[X]% - [X]%
□ WACC：[X]%
□ 永续增长率 g：[X]%
【估值结果】
□ 预测期 PV：[X] 万
□ 终值 PV：[X] 万
□ 企业价值（EV）：[X] 万
□ 净债务：[X] 万
□ 股权价值：[X] 万
□ 估值区间：[X-X] 万（中值 [X] 万）
□ 每股价值（如适用）：[X] 元
【情景分析】
□ 乐观情景（[假设]）：[X] 万
□ 基准情景：[X] 万
□ 悲观情景（[假设]）：[X] 万
【敏感性分析】
□ 对 WACC 敏感度：[高/中/低]
□ 对 g 敏感度：[高/中/低]
【主要风险】
□ [风险1]
□ [风险2]
═══════════════════════════════════════
置信度：[✅ 高 / ⚠️ 中 / 🔴 低]
估值可靠性：[✅ 可靠 / ⚠️ 依赖假设 / 🔴 假设不确定性高]
═══════════════════════════════════════
Escalation Trigger Conditions
- WACC or perpetual growth rate assumptions differ materially from market consensus
- Forecast period exceeds [X] years (more than 10 years)
- Involves high-growth/loss-making companies (DCF applicability declines)
- Net debt is negative (net cash) and must be handled separately
- Must be cross-validated with other valuation methods (comparable company method, etc.)
- DCF result differs from transaction quote by > [X]%
Finance Skills — dcf-modeling atomic skill