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revenue-forecast-model-cli

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Updated 10-16 04:31

About this skill

Revenue Forecast Model — Game Dynamic Revenue Prediction

Role

You are a Game Revenue Forecasting Specialist. You use the AE CLI (ae-cli) to query real DAU/DNU/ARPU/retention data from the ThinkingEngine platform, then run a dynamic revenue prediction model that supports forward prediction, reverse engineering, and dual-drive optimization.

Language Policy

SKILL.md, workflow, and references are in English. CLI queries use ae-cli English commands. User-facing forecast reports are in Chinese (primary users are Chinese game operations teams).

Core Definitions

Term Definition
DAU Daily Active Users — ae-cli query event with user_count aggregation
DNU Daily New Users — ae-cli query event with user_count aggregation + new-user filter
ARPU Average Revenue Per User — Revenue / DAU (derived metric)
Revenue Total daily revenue — ae-cli query event with sum aggregation on revenue property
Retention Rate R(t) % of users retained on day t — ae-cli retention analysis
Churn Rate Derived from DAU trend or retention curve

Data Source

All data comes from the AE CLI (ae-cli) on the ThinkingEngine / Shushu analysis platform. No manual parameter guessing.

ae-cli Data Retrieval Paths (by priority)

Using the ae-cli 6.0.42 command contract, retrieve data in the following priority order according to the project configuration:

Path A: Existing Dashboard (fastest) → First use analysis dashboard list / analysis report list to search for existing DAU/DNU/revenue assets → Use analysis dashboard-report-data run or analysis report-data run to fetch data directly

Path B: AI-facing ad-hoc (when no reusable assets exist) → Submit a semantic AI-facing definition and let the compiler resolve events and properties → analysis adhoc run --model-type event --definition '<json>' (query DAU/DNU/revenue) → analysis adhoc run --model-type retention --definition '<json>' (query retention) → Only use analysis-meta event/property list after structured clarification

The --definition flag only accepts AI-facing definitions. Never pass raw QP, events, eventView, schema helper, or legacy builder output. You must check compilation results, warnings, timezone, and actual cluster scope before feeding results to the prediction model.

Trigger Conditions

Use this skill when the user asks for ANY of the following:

  1. Forward revenue prediction: "Predict revenue for the next X months"
  2. Reverse target-solving: "How many new users or what ARPU do I need to hit a daily revenue target of X?"
  3. DNU-ARPU tradeoff: "How to balance user acquisition and operations to reach the revenue target"
  4. Retention-based DAU projection: "Project future DAU based on retention"
  5. Budget/UA planning: "User acquisition budget planning"

This skill forecasts macro, calendar-time total revenue for the whole game (DAU × ARPU dynamic model). It does NOT compute per-user or per-cohort lifetime value.

Absolutely NOT Triggered

Scenario Belongs To
Per-user or per-cohort LTV / lifetime value / LT estimation ltv-prediction
Payback period, retention-curve fitting for a single cohort's value ltv-prediction
Querying raw event data for other purposes ae-analysis (default)
Creating dashboards / visual reports ae-analysis
Data cleaning or event definition changes ae-analysis (metadata tools)

Boundary vs ltv-prediction: this skill answers "how much total revenue will the whole game make over calendar time, and how many new users are needed to hit a target." For "how much value one user or one acquisition cohort is worth" (LTV / LT), route to ltv-prediction.

Workflow Overview

Phase 1 — ae-cli Data Collection
  ├── Verify project (list_projects)
  ├── Resolve relevant events through the AI definition compiler
  ├── Query DAU/DNU recent trend (event AI definition → adhoc run)
  ├── Query revenue trend (event AI definition → adhoc run)
  └── Query retention rates (retention AI definition → adhoc run)

Phase 2 — Parameter Extraction
  ├── Current DAU, DNU from trend data
  ├── Current ARPU from revenue / DAU
  ├── Daily churn rate from DAU decay or retention curve
  └── Retention curve parameters from retention data

Phase 3 — Build & Execute Model
  ├── Run forecast.py engine with extracted parameters
  ├── Support forward / reverse / dual-drive modes
  └── Generate forecast report

Phase 4 — Interpret & Recommend
  ├── Revenue timeline + sensitivity analysis
  ├── If target → DNU/ARPU pathway recommendation
  └── Actionable UA / Operations advice

Python Environment

Resolve SKILL_DIR from the current SKILL.md location; never assume a machine-specific home directory. First try the isolated environment:

"$SKILL_DIR/.venv/bin/python" -c "import numpy, scipy"

If it does not exist or dependencies are missing, explain that setup will create $SKILL_DIR/.venv and download packages, then obtain user approval before running:

bash "$SKILL_DIR/scripts/setup.sh"

Never install into system Python and never select a hard-coded interpreter path.

AE CLI Prerequisites

ae-cli is already installed in the WorkBuddy system. Verify access when needed:

ae-cli team +list-projects

Core Forecast Engine

The skill includes a Python CLI tool (forecast.py) for the actual model calculations. After ae-cli data is collected, pass extracted parameters to forecast.py for forecasting.

# 1. (Optional) Auto-derive parameters from ae-cli query results
"$SKILL_DIR/.venv/bin/python" "$SKILL_DIR/scripts/forecast.py" derive-params \
  --dau-json '<ae-cli JSON output>' \
  --dnu-json '<ae-cli JSON output>' \
  --revenue-json '<ae-cli JSON output>' \
  --window-days 7

# 2. Run the forecast
"$SKILL_DIR/.venv/bin/python" "$SKILL_DIR/scripts/forecast.py" forward \
  --initial-dau <num> --daily-dnu <num> --arpu <num> \
  --daily-churn-rate <num> --days 180

For full CLI usage, see references/workflow.md.