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commodity-research-outlook

Writing & research

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Updated 11-06 16:19

About this skill

Commodity Research Outlook

Produce institutional-grade commodity outlook reports following a proven sell-side research structure.

Reference Sources

  • Type: Uploaded PDF files (three versions: 2024, 2025, 2026)
  • Reference File Type:PDF
  • Primary Style Reference: 2026 version (clean minimalist design, geometric sans-serif typography)
  • Supported Output Formats: PDF (primary), DOCX (editable), PPTX (presentation subset)
  • Default Output: PDF by default when the user does not specify

Style Specifications

Load references/style_contract.md to get the complete visual specifications. The key rules are as follows.

Style Rules That Must Be Followed

  1. Cover page—dark gradient bars are prohibited. Full-page white background. Plain-text header: brand logo name in the upper left, "Commodity Research" in the upper right with date/time. Below the header at the left margin there is a thin vertical dark blue decorative line.
  2. Do not use section numbering hierarchy(do not use 1., 1.1, 2., etc.). Use flowing paragraph-style text, with bold subheadings (such as "Long Gold" or "The Insurance Value of Commodities") embedded in the narrative.
  3. Do not use colored section title bars. All body pages have a clean white background.
  4. Typography: Geometric neo-grotesque sans-serif; use Helvetica Neue / Arial as the primary fonts. LiberationSans is prohibited.
  5. Charts: Dark blue (#003366) and red/terracotta (#C62828) as the primary series colors. Clean minimalist grid lines. Dual-panel charts (two charts side by side) are the standard presentation method.

Quick Reference

Element Specification
Brand Header Text Plain-text logo on a white background—gradients/dark bars are prohibited
Section Titles Bold, inline with the text flow, narrative style
Body Text Approximately 10-11pt, left-aligned, ragged right
Header Thin line separator; "[Institution Name]" on the left, "Commodity View" on the right
Footer Date on the left, page number on the right
Chart Titles Bold, "Exhibit N: [Descriptive Title]"
Source Attribution Small gray text, "Source: [Data Institution], [Institution Name] Global Investment Research"

Structure Specifications

Load references/structure_contract.md to get the complete structure specifications.

Document Flow (No Table of Contents Page)

Cover Page (page 1)
  |-- Brand text header + date
  |-- Thin vertical navy left-accent line
  |-- "COMMODITY VIEWS" series label
  |-- Report title + subtitle
  |-- Key takeaways (left column, ~60%): 5-8 bullets with filled-square markers
  |-- Author team (right column, ~40%): Name | Phone | Email | Entity
  |-- Top trades: empty-square markers with bold trade names
  |-- disclaimer bar at bottom
  
Body Pages (page 2 onward) — NO TOC PAGE, flow directly into content
  |-- Running header + thin rule
  |-- Opening thesis paragraph + overview narrative
  |-- Exhibits inline with text (multi-panel charts, tables)
  |-- Thematic sections with bold subheadings in text flow
  |-- Per-commodity deep dives with supply/demand analysis
  |-- ~15-16 exhibits per 19-page report (high exhibit density)

Disclosure Appendix (last 1-2 pages)
  |-- Reg AC certification
  |-- Global product / distributing entities
  |-- General disclosures
  |-- Copyright notice

Chart Requirements

  • Quantity: A report targeting approximately 19 pages includes 15-16 substantive charts. Each major theme requires 2-4 supporting charts.
  • Type: Multi-panel time series (dual-axis), grouped/stacked bar charts, regression scatter plots, data tables, framework diagrams.
  • Cross-referencing: Each chart is referenced in the body text as "(Chart N)" or "Chart N, left panel".
  • Source attribution: Each chart must have a data source attribution.

Workflow

Step 1: Collect input information

  • Target year/time period of the outlook
  • Commodity sectors to cover (energy, metals, agriculture)
  • Key macro assumptions (GDP growth, Fed policy, geopolitical backdrop)
  • Specific trade ideas or directional views to emphasize
  • Author/team attribution

Step 2: Build the structure

  1. Determine 2-4 core themes based on macro topics
  2. Map each commodity sector to relevant themes
  3. Draft 5-8 key points for the cover page
  4. Prepare 3-4 top trade recommendations, marked with hollow squares
  5. Plan approximately 15-16 charts and data sources

Step 3: Draft the content

For each theme, follow this narrative pattern:

  • Opening thesis → 1-2 paragraph overview
  • Macro backdrop → Link top-down analytical logic, cross-reference charts
  • Supply-side analysis → Production, inventories, spare capacity
  • Demand-side analysis → Regional demand, structural and cyclical drivers
  • Price forecast → Base case and bull/bear scenario sensitivity analysis
  • Trade recommendations → Embed bold recommendation statements in the text

Step 4: Review checklist

  • Cover page is a plain-text header (no gradient bars), with a vertical decorative line on the left
  • No table of contents page—transition directly from cover to body
  • No numbered section hierarchy—use only bold inline subheadings
  • Each theme has 2-4 accompanying charts
  • All approximately 15-16 charts are numbered in sequence and cross-referenced
  • Each chart has a source attribution
  • Trade recommendations include bold embedded statements and risk factors
  • Clearly articulate bull/bear/tail scenario risks
  • Detailed disclosure appendix, including Reg AC certification, regulatory notices, copyright statement
  • Font is Helvetica Neue / Arial (or similar geometric sans-serif)—LiberationSans is prohibited