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webtoon-trend-research

Writing & research

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Updated 10-16 09:50

About this skill

Webtoon trend research methodology

This is a common methodology for the research team (trend-scout, platform-ranker, audience-analyst, hook-analyst, trend-synthesizer) to answer with data "what should be made now, with what tone and structure, to be popular." Follow it imperatively.

Because the subjects of research change quickly, before conclusions, evidence and sourcesare secured first. Every claim must have a source and observation date attached. For conflicting information, write both sides and cite the sources together (do not arbitrarily delete one side).

Why research this way (Why-first)

  • Webtoon success is not coincidence but repeating patterns. If you find patterns and transplant them, the probability of success rises. Therefore, look at "whether it repeats across multiple works," not just one work.
  • Trends are time-dependent. A trope that was hot six months ago may have cooled now. Therefore, always record the observation date and prioritize recent signals.
  • The planning team wants actionable decisions. It is valuable only if organized into a form that can be used immediately, such as "romance fantasy × regression × cold revenge tone × identity twist at the end of episode 1," not just "romance fantasy is popular."
  • Because the scenario/visual team consumes the output, findings are left in a form convertible into story(tropes, techniques, structures).

What to research and where

Research along four axes. Dig deeply into your own role's axis, but also cross-check signals from other axes.

1) Genre and trope (trend-scout)

  • Popular genres: regression, possession, reincarnation (hoe-bing-hwan), dark fantasy, romance fantasy (ro-fan), hunter/gate stories, catharsis narratives, munchkin, academy/workplace revenge stories, academy stories, modern fantasy, martial arts, daily/healing, etc.
  • Distinguish each genre's repeating tropes and variations, and its lifecycle (rising / peak / declining).
  • Capture early signals of genre hybrids (romance fantasy + regression, hunter stories + revenge stories, etc.) and new combinations.
  • Behind the trope, reader desire(vicarious satisfaction, sense of control, fairness, excitement) is interpreted in one line.

2) Platform and serialization structure (platform-ranker)

  • Platforms: Naver Webtoon, KakaoPage, Kakao Webtoon, Lezhin Comics (Ridi, Toomics, etc. if needed).
  • Look at rankings by type: popular / paid / new / completed. Assume that each platform has a different ranking calculation method.
  • Popular works' serialization structure: amount per episode (number of cuts/panels, scroll length), episode pacing, episode units.
  • Cliffhanger position: Tension handling at the final cut of an episode, the point that makes readers press "Next Episode."
  • Payment conversion section: Free→paid transition episodes, the wait-for-free/preview cutoff, and hook density in the paid section.

3) Readers·Reactions (audience-analyst)

  • Demographics: primary readership by genre (age, gender, platform tendencies). Since most of this is estimation, state the basis and label it as "estimate."
  • Immersion factors: The emotional drivers that grip readers (vicarious satisfaction, catharsis, flutter, sense of control, realization of justice) and the trigger scenes for each.
  • Drop-off points: Connect typical drop-off sections (slow intro, accumulated frustration, abandoned plot threads, delayed development, art collapse, payment barrier) to episode and development stage.
  • Comment reaction patterns: Code best comments by type (catharsis cheers / frustration complaints / plot-thread speculation / character likes and dislikes / payment complaints). Count them as recurring patterns, not individual abusive remarks.

4) Hooking·Cliffhanger·Twist (hook-analyst)

  • Episode 1 hooking formula: The hooking devices from the first cut to the first episode (strong question, immediate crisis, declaration of an extraordinary protagonist, shocking opening, regression/awakening trigger) and their placement order.
  • Cliffhanger mechanism: The position and method of cutting off tension at the end of an episode.
  • Twist reverse-engineering: Which prediction is overturned and how (identity, betrayal, relationship reversal, point of view, truth reveal) and the timing for maximizing impact.
  • Foreshadowing technique: The clues and payoff intervals of "plant → hide (misdirection) → detonate." A fair twist has clues placed earlier.

The observation framework for reverse-engineering (the twist·cliffhanger decomposition checklist) was long, so it has been separated out. references/observation-frames.mdRefer to this.

Source reliability priority

The higher the tier, the more it is trusted. When possible, prioritize primary and secondary sources, and cross-check before making assertions.

  1. Official platform data — Each platform's ranking/popularity/new-release pages, official announcements·IR·press releases (views·revenue·ranking calculation).
  2. Primary signals within the platform — Work episode structure, ratings, comments/best comments, free↔paid transition markers.
  3. Industry press·aggregation — Webtoon-specialized media, industry reports, reliable chart aggregations.
  4. Community·reviews·commentary — Reader communities, review blogs, work commentary. Take only "patterns," assuming sample bias.
  5. Secondary summaries·estimates — Only when the above approaches are blocked. Always label as "estimate/secondary source."

Rules:

  • Attach URL and observation dateto every item. Rankings are snapshots, so they are invalid without a point in time.
  • List conflicting information from both sides. Example: "Source A says romance fantasy is rising, source B says it is stagnant — cite both sources." Do not erase one side.
  • For inaccessible sources, leave the URL and reason for failure so that follow-up retries are possible.
  • Label unverified effects and figures as "estimates" or "hypotheses." Do not write speculation as fact.

Tool Usage

  • WebSearch — Explore trends, rankings, works, and reactions. If results are sparse, change the search terms to Korean / English / platform name / work title and retry.
  • WebFetch — Fetch ranking pages, articles, and commentary body text to extract structure and figures. If blocked by dynamic loading or login, supplement with secondary sources and state the limitations.

Structure of the Synthesis Brief (trend-synthesizer)

Your four reports are cross-validatedand converged into actionable planning insights. It is a judgment, not an average. Attach evidence (which signal from which report) to every recommendation. trend-brief.mdincludes the following.

  1. One-line conclusion — "Right now, make [genre × trope] in [tone], with [episode structure]."
  2. Recommended genre/trope combination — 1st priority + alternatives, with evidence for each.
  3. Recommended tone/atmosphere — Emotional target and rationale.
  4. Recommended episode structure — 50+ panel premise, cliffhanger placement, twist point per episode, payment-friendly structure.
  5. Differentiation (edge) — Points that twist clichéd tropes, new combinations.
  6. Hooking/twist strategy — Adopted pattern cards and application locations.
  7. Target readers/churn avoidance — Core readers and drop-prevention design.
  8. Risks/needs verification — Weak signals, data gaps, assumptions requiring verification.
  9. Evidence source summary — Source trace per conclusion.

The synthesis always incorporates the content quality core into its recommendations: dialogue-driven · maintain high tension · at least 1 twist per episode · 50+ panels per episode · consistency of characters/worldbuilding/tone. Make the follow-up team naturally orient toward these criteria.

Output file paths (must be followed)

The working root is _workspace/. Write only to the file corresponding to your role.

  • trend-scout → _workspace/01_research/trend-scout.md
  • platform-ranker → _workspace/01_research/platform-ranker.md
  • audience-analyst → _workspace/01_research/audience-analyst.md
  • hook-analyst → _workspace/01_research/hook-analyst.md
  • trend-synthesizer → _workspace/01_research/trend-brief.md (Read the above 4 and synthesize)
  • Common input: _workspace/00_input/brief.md (user input, episode number, constraints)

Each report should have its own markdown section structure (summary → body → planning implications → sources) and collect sources at the end. Since the direct consumers of the synthesis are the scenario team's concept-architect, series-plotter, and twist-master, leave findings in a form that can be transferred at the episode level.

Follow-up work (redo / re-investigate / update / supplement)

  • If the corresponding output file already exists, Read it and update only the changes. Do not rewrite the whole thing.
  • For rankings and trends, update the observation date and update the lifecycle stage (rising, peak, declining).
  • If there is user feedback ("explore this genre more", "update to the latest", "be conservative with risk"), reinforce only the relevant section.
  • For the consolidated version, when the four reports are updated, update the changed conclusions and evidence traces together.

References (references/)

  • references/observation-frames.md — An observation checklist and comment reaction coding table for reverse-engineering episode 1 hooks / cliffhangers / twists and foreshadowing.