Create a durable, isolated reasoning guide for a PMKNB situation. A situation frame is not evidence, not a forecast, and not a report. It is a structured model that helps later agents reason, research, and update without mixing facts with interpretation.
Core Rules
- Keep the frame separate from evidence. Frame judgments are hypotheses until separately sourced.
- Never turn unsourced interpretation into a claim about the world.
- Label every material statement as Sourced fact, Frame judgment, Inference, or Speculation.
- State what would change the frame, not merely what would support it.
- Prefer gates, keyholders, actors, incentives, clocks, constraints, and observables over narrative summary.
- Use confidence for the frame's reasoning quality, not for the market outcome.
- Mark uncertainty explicitly. Do not hide cruxes behind smooth prose.
- Keep the frame compact enough for later agents to reuse.
Build Process
- Define the frame boundary: what the frame covers and excludes.
- Write a falsifiable frame thesis: the current best model of what drives the situation.
- Identify resolution pathways: gates, choices, decisions, or facts that could resolve the market.
- Map actors:
- actor model: wants, fears, beliefs, constraints, capacities, incentives, action menu.
- power map: who can make, block, delay, force, legitimate, enforce, or route the outcome.
- Surface structure:
- gates and keyholders
- pressure points
- choice points
- clocks
- implementation gaps
- legibility gaps
- Identify cruxes, misread risks, observables, and tripwires.
- Set evidence standards and update rules.
Evidence Contamination Rules
Use these labels strictly:
- Sourced fact: externally supported claim already present in the evidence context.
- Frame judgment: analyst view of what matters or how structure fits together.
- Inference: reasoning from sourced facts, labeled as reasoning.
- Speculation: plausible but weakly supported possibility.
Rules:
- Do not cite the frame as evidence.
- Do not introduce factual claims unless they are sourced in the active evidence context.
- Do not let actor-model language become factual language.
- Do not write naked predictions. Mark them as frame judgments, inferences, or speculation.
- For every important unsourced claim, replace the claim with Evidence needed.
- Later agents must separately source any factual claim before using it in research, reports, forecasts, or market-resolution analysis.
Never write:
Actor X will block the outcome.
Prefer:
Frame judgment: Actor X is a likely blocker if its incentives remain aligned against the outcome. Evidence needed: public statement, filing, vote behavior, procedural action, or other observable opposition.
Output Template
# Situation Frame: [market/situation name]
## Frame Boundary
Covers:
Excludes:
## Frame Thesis
[1-3 sentences. Falsifiable. Label any judgment, inference, or speculation.]
## Resolution Pathways
1. [Pathway name]: [gates -> keyholders -> possible resolution route]
2. [Pathway name]: [gates -> keyholders -> possible resolution route]
## Actor / Power Map
| Actor | Wants / Fears | Constraints | Power Over Outcome | Likely Action Menu | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | Sourced fact / Frame judgment / Inference / Speculation |
## Gates, Clocks, and Pressure Points
| Item | Type | Keyholder | Why It Matters | Observable | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | gate / clock / pressure point | | | | Sourced fact / Frame judgment / Inference / Speculation |
## Cruxes
1. [Uncertainty that would materially change the frame]
2. [Uncertainty that would materially change the frame]
## Misread Risks
- [Tempting but possibly wrong story, analogy, or causal model]
- [Source interpretation risk]
## Evidence Standard
What should count:
What should not count:
Evidence needed:
## Update Rules
- If [observable], update toward [frame change].
- If [observable], update away from [frame change].
- If [absence by clock/deadline], update by [rule].
## Tripwires
- [High-impact observable requiring immediate reframing or escalation]
## Research Posture
Best source classes:
Noisy / delayed / adversarial source classes:
Next research moves:
## Frame Confidence
[Low / Medium / High] - confidence in the frame structure, not the market outcome.
Reason:
Pressure Modes
Use only when relevant:
- Fast-moving news: prioritize tripwires, clocks, and update rules over complete prose.
- Thin evidence: make legibility gaps explicit; do not fill gaps with confident narrative.
- Narrative capture: separate actor messaging from actor constraints.
- Formal announcement risk: check implementation gaps before treating announcements as execution.
- Procedural market: identify keyholders, gates, and deadlines before discussing incentives.
Quality Bar
A good situation frame:
- Has a clear boundary and falsifiable thesis.
- Names who can move, block, delay, force, or legitimate the outcome.
- Identifies gates and keyholders instead of only summarizing events.
- Includes observables that would actually update the frame.
- Contains at least one misread risk.
- Separates sourced facts, inferences, speculation, and frame judgments.
- Avoids forecasting language unless explicitly labeled as a hypothesis.
- Is reusable by a later agent without trust in hidden reasoning.