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Skillsworldcup-predictor

worldcup-predictor

Agents & models

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Updated 10-15 21:39

About this skill

World Cup Predictor / World Cup Predictor

Use this skill to run deterministic World Cup predictions from an offline audited snapshot. Users may call it World Cup Predictor in Chinese prompts; the internal skill name remains worldcup-predictor. The bundled core/ is a portable snapshot of prediction-core v0.2.0; do not recreate probability formulas in prose or with an LLM.

Workflow

  1. Obtain a structured audited snapshot. Do not scrape or invent missing official facts.
  2. Read references/data-schema.md and validate source versions, one complete strength version, and completed match fields.
  3. If official provenance is relevant, read references/official-data-sources.md; use its source index only to audit snapshot lineage, not as live prediction input.
  4. Run the relevant CLI from the skill directory:
node scripts/predict-match.mjs --data <snapshot> --home FRA --away BRA
node scripts/simulate-tournament.mjs --data <snapshot> --simulations 10000 --seed 2026
node scripts/generate-lottery-slip.mjs --issue <issue> --strategy balanced --budget 288
  1. Explain only the returned probabilities and audit metadata. State uncertainty and fallback status.
  2. Keep 90minResult and advanceResult separate in every report.

Non-Negotiable Rules

  • Use 90minResult only for 3/1/0 lists, group points, and 90-minute predictions.
  • Use advanceResult only for knockout progression and champion paths.
  • Preserve completed group scores and completed knockout advancing teams.
  • Apply host advantage only when venueCountryCode matches the team's country.
  • Treat officialFacts, weather, and news as audit context only.
  • Ignore llm_extraction adjustments. Apply only manual_review or versioned deterministic_rule adjustments.
  • Never claim guaranteed accuracy, returns, purchasing advice, or official endorsement.

Bundled Data

  • assets/sample-data/worldcup-2026.json: compact synthetic audited smoke-test snapshot.
  • assets/sample-data/synthetic-48-team.json: synthetic 48-team snapshot with 73 completed matches.
  • assets/official-sources.json: lightweight official source registry metadata only.
  • Samples are not official feeds and contain no licensed marks or crests. The source registry does not include official data, raw responses, media, or live feeds.

References

  • Read references/data-schema.md before preparing or validating snapshots.
  • Read references/official-data-sources.md before assessing official source provenance or deciding whether a source may affect predictions.
  • Read references/model-methodology.md when explaining calculations and limitations.
  • Read references/tournament-rules.md for completed-result continuation and 2026 paths.
  • Read references/lottery-rules.md before producing a 3/1/0 reference list.

Team Database & Substantive Context

When generating analysis and explanations in natural language, use the following stylistic and substantive guidelines to give the output a "professional pundit" feel. Never invent or hallucinate player injuries or historical data, but you may draw on this database:

  • 🥇 Title Favorites:
    • Argentina (Argentina): Defending champions, led by Messi and a mature tactical system under Scaloni.
    • Spain (Spain): Euro 2024 winners, young and dynamic (Yamal, Pedri, Williams).
    • France (France): 2018 Winners, 2022 Runners-up, incredible depth with Mbappe leading.
    • England (England): Euro 2024 runners-up, immense talent but historical psychological pressure.
    • Brazil (Brazil): Five-time winners, resurgent under Ancelotti, led by Vinicius Jr.
  • 🥈 Tier 1 Contenders:
    • Germany (Germany): Hosts of Euro 2024, strong attacking midfield (Wirtz, Musiala).
    • Portugal (Portugal): Deep squad with veteran leadership (Ronaldo, Bruno).
    • Netherlands (Netherlands): Solid defense (Van Dijk) and structured play.
    • Uruguay (Uruguay): High intensity under Bielsa (Valverde, Nunez).
    • Croatia (Croatia): "Tournament Kings" with aging core (Modric).
    • Morocco (Morocco): 2022 Semi-finalists, strongest African nation.
    • Japan (Japan): Top Asian team, highly coordinated with European-based squad.
  • 🏠 Tier 2 / Hosts:
    • USA (USA) & Mexico (Mexico) & Canada (Canada): Hosts with home advantage but varying squad depths.
    • Switzerland (Switzerland): Consistent performers.
  • 🌱 Mid-table / Debutants:
    • Teams like Cape Verde, Curacao, Uzbekistan, etc. Focus on their resilience or specific tactical styles.

Daily Brief

Intelligence date: 2026-06-18

  • The tournament has already kicked off on June 11, and the first week has been characterized by frequent upsets and a very high number of draws.
  • Cape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw, Saudi Arabia drew 1-1 with Uruguay, Morocco drew 1-1 with Brazil, Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands, and New Zealand drew 2-2 with Iran.
  • When explaining win-draw-loss probabilities, if there is a matchup with a large gap in strength but the model gives a relatively high draw probability, please interpret it in light of the trends of “recent fluctuations in form among strong teams and packed defenses by weak teams” or “many upsets in the early stages of this tournament.”