Overview
This skill analyzes medium- to long-term (18-month) investment scenarios starting from news headlines.
It sequentially calls two specialized agents (scenario-analystとstrategy-reviewer),
and generates a comprehensive report that integrates multifaceted analysis and critical review.
When to Use This Skill
Use this skill in the following cases:
- You want to analyze medium- to long-term investment impacts from news headlines
- You want to construct multiple scenarios 18 months out
- You want to organize impacts on sectors and stocks by 1st/2nd/3rd order
- You need comprehensive analysis including a second opinion
- You need report output in Japanese
Usage example:
/scenario-analyzer "Fed raises interest rates by 50bp, signals more hikes ahead"
/scenario-analyzer "China announces new tariffs on US semiconductors"
/scenario-analyzer "OPEC+ agrees to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day"
Prerequisites
- API Keys: None (only WebSearch/WebFetch used)
- MCP Servers: None
- Dependencies: The scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer agents must be available via the Task tool
Architecture
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Skill（オーケストレーター） │
│ │
│ Phase 1: 準備 │
│ ├─ ヘッドライン解析 │
│ ├─ イベントタイプ分類 │
│ └─ リファレンス読み込み │
│ │
│ Phase 2: エージェント呼び出し │
│ ├─ scenario-analyst（主分析） │
│ └─ strategy-reviewer（セカンドオピニオン） │
│ │
│ Phase 3: 統合・レポート生成 │
│ └─ reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Workflow
Phase 1: Preparation
Step 1.1: Headline analysis
Analyze the headline input by the user.
-
Headline confirmation
- Check whether a headline was passed as an argument
- If not passed, ask the user for input
-
Keyword extraction
- Main entities (company names, country names, institution names)
- Numerical data (interest rates, prices, quantities)
- Actions (raise, lower, announce, agree, etc.)
Step 1.2: Event type classification
Classify the headline into the following categories:
| Category | Example |
|---|---|
| Monetary policy | FOMC, ECB, BOJ, rate hike, rate cut, QE/QT |
| Geopolitics | War, sanctions, tariffs, trade friction |
| Regulation and policy | Environmental regulation, financial regulation, antitrust law |
| Technology | AI, EV, renewables, semiconductors |
| Commodities | Crude oil, gold, copper, agricultural products |
| Companies and M&A | Acquisitions, bankruptcies, earnings, industry restructuring |
Step 1.3: Load references
Based on the event type, load the relevant references:
Read references/headline_event_patterns.md
Read references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
Read references/scenario_playbooks.md
Reference contents:
headline_event_patterns.md: Past event patterns and market reactionssector_sensitivity_matrix.md: Event x sector impact matrixscenario_playbooks.md: Templates and best practices for scenario construction
Phase 2: Agent invocation
Step 2.1: Invoke scenario-analyst
Invoke the main analysis agent using the Agent tool.
Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "scenario-analyst"
- prompt: |
以下のヘッドラインについて18ヶ月シナリオ分析を実行してください。
## 対象ヘッドライン
[入力されたヘッドライン]
## イベントタイプ
[分類結果]
## リファレンス情報
[読み込んだリファレンスの要約]
## 分析要件
1. WebSearchで過去2週間の関連ニュースを収集
2. Base/Bull/Bearの3シナリオを構築（確率合計100%）
3. 1次/2次/3次影響をセクター別に分析
4. ポジティブ/ネガティブ影響銘柄を各3-5銘柄選定（米国市場のみ）
5. 全て日本語で出力
Expected output:
- List of related news articles
- Details of 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear)
- Sector impact analysis (primary/secondary/tertiary)
- Recommended stock list
Step 2.2: strategy-reviewer invocation
Based on the scenario-analyst's analysis results, invoke the review agent.
Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "strategy-reviewer"
- prompt: |
以下のシナリオ分析をレビューしてください。
## 対象ヘッドライン
[入力されたヘッドライン]
## 分析結果
[scenario-analystの出力全文]
## レビュー要件
以下の観点でレビューを実施：
1. 見落とされているセクター/銘柄
2. シナリオ確率配分の妥当性
3. 影響分析の論理的整合性
4. 楽観/悲観バイアスの検出
5. 代替シナリオの提案
6. タイムラインの現実性
建設的かつ具体的なフィードバックを日本語で出力してください。
Expected output:
- Pointing out oversights
- Opinions on scenario probabilities
- Pointing out biases
- Proposals for alternative scenarios
- Final recommendations
Phase 3: Integration and report generation
Step 3.1: Result integration
Integrate the outputs of both agents and create the final investment decision.
Integration points:
- Supplement oversights pointed out in the review
- Adjustment of probability allocation (if necessary)
- Final decision taking biases into account
- Formulation of specific action plans
Step 3.2: Report generation
Generate the final report in the following format and save it to a file.
Save destination: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md
# ヘッドライン・シナリオ分析レポート
**分析日時**: YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM
**対象ヘッドライン**: [入力されたヘッドライン]
**イベントタイプ**: [分類カテゴリ]
---
## 1. 関連ニュース記事
[scenario-analystが収集したニュースリスト]
## 2. 想定シナリオ概要（18ヶ月後まで）
### Base Case（XX%確率）
[シナリオ詳細]
### Bull Case（XX%確率）
[シナリオ詳細]
### Bear Case（XX%確率）
[シナリオ詳細]
## 3. セクター・業種への影響
### 1次的影響（直接的）
[影響テーブル]
### 2次的影響（バリューチェーン・関連産業）
[影響テーブル]
### 3次的影響（マクロ・規制・技術）
[影響テーブル]
## 4. ポジティブ影響が見込まれる銘柄（3-5銘柄）
[銘柄テーブル]
## 5. ネガティブ影響が見込まれる銘柄（3-5銘柄）
[銘柄テーブル]
## 6. セカンドオピニオン・レビュー
[strategy-reviewerの出力]
## 7. 最終投資判断・示唆
### 推奨アクション
[レビューを踏まえた具体的アクション]
### リスク要因
[主要リスクの列挙]
### モニタリングポイント
[フォローすべき指標・イベント]
---
**生成**: scenario-analyzer skill
**エージェント**: scenario-analyst, strategy-reviewer
Step 3.3: Report saving
reports/Create the directory if it does not existscenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.mdSave as (e.g.:scenario_analysis_venezuela_20260104.md）- Notify the user that saving is complete
- Do not save directly in the project root
Output
This skill generates the following files:
| File | Format | Description |
|---|---|---|
reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md |
Markdown | Comprehensive scenario analysis report |
Output contents:
- Related news article list
- Base/Bull/Bear 3 scenarios (with probability allocation)
- Sector impact analysis (primary/secondary/tertiary)
- Positive/negative stock recommendations
- Second opinion/review
- Final investment decision/implications
Resources
References
references/headline_event_patterns.md- Event patterns and market reactionsreferences/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md- Sector sensitivity matrixreferences/scenario_playbooks.md- Scenario construction template
Agents
scenario-analyst- Main scenario analysisstrategy-reviewer- Second opinion/review
Important Notes
Language
- All analysis and output shall be conducted inJapaneseconducted in
- Stock tickers shall be kept in English notation
Target market
- Stock selection shall beUS-listed stocks only
- Including ADRs
Time horizon
- Scenarios shall cover18 monthscover
- Describe in 3 phases: 0-6 months/6-12 months/12-18 months
Probability allocation
- Base + Bull + Bear = 100%
- Describe the probability of each scenario along with its rationale
Second opinion
- Mandatoryexecute with (always invoke strategy-reviewer)
- Review results shall be reflected in the final decision
Output destination (important)
- Must
reports/be saved under the directory - Path:
reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md - Example:
reports/scenario_analysis_fed_rate_hike_20260104.md reports/If the directory does not exist, create it- Do not save directly to the project root
Quality Checklist
Before completing the report, check the following:
- Are the headlines parsed correctly?
- Is the event type classification appropriate?
- Do the probabilities of the 3 scenarios sum to 100%?
- Is there a logical connection among the primary/secondary/tertiary impacts?
- Is there a concrete rationale for the stock selection?
- Is the strategy-reviewer's review included?
- Is the final judgment based on the review stated?
- Was the report saved to the correct path?