A budget is not a fixed number — it is a decision tool: where you place bets and when you pull back. The leader must know total spend, ROI per channel, what to increase, and what to cut. Run
10-reverse-kpi-globalfirst to derive the minimum budget from the revenue target before allocating anything.
Information gathering
Read .agents/product-marketing-context-global.md, the marketing plan, and the previous period's report if available. If missing, ask up to 4 questions:
- Total budget and planning period? How much, for a month, a quarter, or a year (USD)?
- Revenue target for the period? Needed to compute marketing as a percent of revenue and the minimum viable budget.
- Active channels and last period's ROI? Meta / TikTok / Google / email + SMS / affiliates / agency — which has the best ROAS or CPA?
- Any large campaign needing a reserve? Launch, Black Friday / Cyber Monday, or another seasonal peak.
Principles
- Budget follows performance. Do not stay rigid to the opening plan. Channels that work get more; channels that do not get cut.
- Always hold 10-15% in reserve. Never allocate everything on day one. The reserve covers unexpected opportunities and incidents.
- Every dollar has a measurable KPI. "Branding you cannot measure" is not an acceptable line item.
- Do not spread evenly. Concentrate on the best-performing channel. New channels get a minimum test allocation (10-15%) first.
- Plan backwards from revenue, not from channels. The budget is the output of a revenue equation, not an arbitrary number.
- Do not divide the annual budget evenly across quarters. Median Meta CPM in Q4 runs roughly 26% above Q1 (
references/benchmarks-global.md), so identical monthly spend buys materially less reach in Q4. Either front-load acquisition into cheap Q1 months or explicitly reserve a larger Q4 allocation for the same volume.
Workflow
1. Choose the budget-setting method
| Method | How it works | Strength | Weakness |
|---|---|---|---|
| Percent of revenue | Budget = X% of expected revenue | Simple | Ignores growth stage |
| Backwards from targets (recommended) | Set revenue > derive CAC/CPL > derive spend | Logical, evidence-based | Needs historical CAC/CPL |
| Competitive benchmark | Match category spend norms | Avoids under-investment | Ignores your own conditions |
Seven-step backwards calculation (full detail in 10-reverse-kpi-global):
1. Target revenue
2. / AOV = orders needed
3. / close rate (30-50%) = hot leads needed
4. / nurture CVR (50-60%) = warm leads needed
5. / lead capture CVR (20-40%) = total reach needed
6. total leads x CPL = minimum ad budget
7. + content + tools + agency = total marketing budget
Build 3 scenarios: Conservative (CVR below category median, CPL above), Base case (at median), Optimistic (post-optimization). Plan against Base; prepare cashflow against Conservative.
2. Allocate by bucket
| Bucket | Suggested share | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Paid ads (performance) | 50-65% | Meta, TikTok, Google, retargeting |
| Content production | 10-15% | Video, design, copywriting |
| Creators / UGC / affiliates | 5-10% | Social proof, third-party reach |
| Agency / freelancers | Per scope | If used |
| Tools / software | 2-5% | Ad tools, design, email/CRM, analytics |
| Campaign reserve | 10-15% | Opportunities and incidents — NOT pre-allocated |
3. Allocate by channel
Starting split (adjust to your category and your own data):
| Channel | Share of ad budget | Objective | Expected CPA / ROAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Ads (Facebook + Instagram) | 45-60% | Lead / purchase | |
| TikTok Ads | 15-20% | Awareness / lead | |
| Google Search + Shopping | 15-25% | High-intent capture | |
| Email + SMS (Klaviyo, Mailchimp, Attentive) | 5-10% | Retention, nurture, retargeting | |
| New channel (test) | 10-15% | Validate |
For B2B, shift toward LinkedIn and Search — LinkedIn CPM runs $30-100+, so plan a higher CPL and a longer payback window. Allocation logic: channels with strong ROAS or CPA get a larger share; new channels get the minimum test allocation first; never divide evenly.
4. Split by funnel and by test vs scale
Standard performance split inside each channel:
| Purpose | Share | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Testing (new creative + audiences) | 30% | Always keep testing — creative fatigue arrives fast |
| Scale (confirmed winners) | 50% | Only scale campaigns with winning data |
| Retargeting | 15% | Warm audience — cheapest CPA in the funnel |
| Lookalike / similar audiences | 5% | Expansion from converter seeds |
By funnel: TOFU (reach/awareness), MOFU (lead/nurture), BOFU (conversion/retargeting). The ratio depends on stage: a launch skews TOFU, a mature program skews BOFU and retention.
5. Allocate by campaign and month
| Campaign | Month | Budget (USD) | Objective | KPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Always-on (retargeting + nurture) | Full period | |||
| Campaign A (launch or seasonal) | ||||
| Testing budget | Full period | New channels or angles | ||
| Reserve | — | 10-15% |
Seasonality overlay before locking monthly numbers:
| Period | Media cost vs Q1 | Planning implication |
|---|---|---|
| January | ~-21% below Q1 average | Cheapest acquisition window — stock budget here if cashflow allows |
| Q2-Q3 | Rising | Normal operating cadence, build audiences for Q4 |
| October | ~+10% | Start of the expensive window |
| November | ~+27% (peak) | Reserve extra budget or accept lower volume |
| Q4 average | ~+26% above Q1 | Do not plan Q4 at Q1 unit costs |
In US election years, political spend displaces commercial inventory and adds roughly 20-40% to CPM in the last 30 days before the vote — build that into Q4 plans for US-targeted campaigns.
6. Scale-up and stop-loss rules
Increase budget when (BOTH conditions hold):
- ROAS above 1.5x target for 7+ consecutive days, OR CPA at or below 70% of target with sufficient volume
- Audience not yet saturated (frequency below 2.5)
- Increment: +20-30% per step, never a sudden doubling
Cut or pause when (stop-loss):
| Condition | Action |
|---|---|
| ROAS below break-even for 14 days | Cut the channel or campaign, move budget to what works |
| CPA above 2x target after 7 days of testing | Pause, replace creative or audience before restarting |
| Frequency above 4 | Audience saturation — stop scaling, refresh creative |
| Spend above 110% of the monthly plan | Cap daily budgets, review the allocation |
Weekly CPA review rule (expressed relative to your own target, since absolute CPA varies 3-5x between regions and industries):
| CPA vs target | Frequency | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <= 70% of target | < 2.0 | WIN — scale +20-30% |
| 70-100% of target | < 2.5 | Acceptable — monitor |
| 100-130% of target | 2.0-2.5 | Optimize — replace creative |
| > 130% of target | > 2.5 | PAUSE and replace |
Set the target itself using references/benchmarks-global.md for your region and industry, not a global average. Never increase budget while CPA is deteriorating — fix creative or tracking first.
7. Tracker and review cadence
| Month | Planned budget | Actual spend | Variance | ROAS / ROI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | |||||
| Month 2 | |||||
| Month 3 | |||||
| Quarter total |
| Cadence | Work | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly | Review CPA and ROAS per channel, apply the step-6 decision rules | Immediate adjustment when a threshold trips |
| Monthly | Review the full allocation, reconcile plan vs actual | Rebalance for next month |
| Quarterly | Review overall allocation strategy and LTV:CAC | Strategy adjustment |
Unit economics health — LTV:CAC:
| Ratio | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|
| < 1:1 | Losing money on every customer | Stop scaling, fix product or price |
| 1:1 to 3:1 | Break-even to viable | Optimize conversion, raise AOV |
| > 3:1 | Healthy | Begin scaling |
| > 5:1 | Strong | Increase ad budget aggressively |
Output structure
File name: budget-plan-[brand-name]-[YYYYMMDD].md — contains: I. Budget overview (total, revenue target, marketing as % of revenue, period) · II. Bucket allocation · III. Channel allocation · IV. Test vs scale split · V. Campaign and monthly allocation with seasonality overlay · VI. Decision rules and stop-loss thresholds · VII. Plan-vs-actual tracker · VIII. Review cadence.
Related skills
10-reverse-kpi-global: derive the minimum budget from the revenue target — run before allocating.00-marketing-plan-global: the budget plan is the detailed version of the plan's budget section.54-media-plan-global: turn the ad budget into a concrete campaign and ad-set level media plan.21-ads-audit-global: audit a channel that repeatedly trips the stop-loss thresholds.07-marketing-report-global: budget reconciliation inside the monthly report.
Quality checklist
- Budget derived backwards from the revenue target, with 3 scenarios
- All 3 allocation layers present: bucket > channel > campaign/month
- Test vs scale split explicit (testing 30 / scale 50 / retargeting 15 / lookalike 5)
- 10-15% reserve held back, not pre-allocated
- Scale-up and stop-loss thresholds use concrete numbers (ROAS, CPA vs target, frequency, days)
- New channels receive only a 10-15% test allocation
- Every budget line has a measurable KPI attached
- Monthly plan accounts for Q4 media inflation rather than dividing the year evenly
- Plan-vs-actual tracker exists by month
- Weekly, monthly, and quarterly review cadence with defined outputs
- LTV:CAC checked before any scale decision