polymarket-watch

Polymarket Watch

Runs before the market opens and sends one short list of prediction markets worth a look this morning. It answers:

1. Which finance markets moved the most overnight?
2. Which fresh markets picked up real volume?
3. Where do the odds and the news disagree?

This skill is orchestration only. For probability-gap and settlement-criteria method, install LLMQuant/skills.

Model baseline

Use DeepSeek as the default Hermes model for this scheduled job. DeepSeek V4 Flash is enough for routine scan-and-summarize runs. Use a stronger DeepSeek model only when the user asks for a deeper follow-up.

MCP tools used

Tool	Purpose	Credit / call
polymarket_event_browse	Active finance events for tracked topics, filtered by volume and liquidity	1
polymarket_event_search	Optional natural-language discovery when a theme has no exact match	2
polymarket_price_history	Overnight odds moves for candidate markets	0
polymarket_event_read	Details and settlement criteria for flagged events	0
polymarket_market_read	Per-market odds and outcome detail	0
news_browse	News cross-check on flagged markets' tickers and topics	2

Browse first; search only when a watchlist.prediction_market_topics theme returns nothing exact. Price history and reads are free — spend those, not extra browse calls.

Cron

hermes cron create "30 7 * * 1-5" "Run the polymarket-watch playbook: scan active finance prediction markets, flag the biggest overnight odds moves and odds-news divergences, keep it short and source-linked." \
  --skill polymarket-watch \
  --name "polymarket-watch" \
  --deliver telegram

On some Hermes versions (as of v0.18.x), cron expressions run in host-local time. Confirm the next-run time with hermes cron list after creating the job. Scheduled a bit before morning-brief so the two land together.

Delivery

Telegram is the default delivery channel.

• --deliver telegram sends to the Telegram home channel after /sethome.
• --deliver telegram:<chat_id> targets a specific chat.
• For Slack, Discord, or other gateways, check the user's Hermes gateway syntax before scheduling.

Cost of watching

Keep runs lean: one browse per run covers most mornings, the follow-up reads and price history are free, and one news_browse call cross-checks the flagged markets. Skip the optional search call unless a tracked theme finds nothing.

Output contract

Every delivered scan should include:

• as-of timestamp and local timezone;
• at most 3-5 markets, each with the odds move (from → to overnight), volume or liquidity context, and the news cross-check: backed by news, not backed, or no news found;
• settlement criteria or resolution date for anything flagged;
• tool names used for factual claims;
• "interesting" means worth a look, not a position: close with the no-advice disclaimer from templates/SOUL.md — discipline rule 3 applies to odds as much as to stocks.

Customize

• watchlist.prediction_market_topics: edit in workspace AGENTS.md; a few themes is enough, empty falls back to a broad finance browse sorted by volume.
• Cadence: weekdays by default; markets trade through weekends, so add Saturday if the user tracks macro or politics-adjacent finance events.
• Depth: raise the market cap from 3-5 only if the user asks; a short list is the product.
• Delivery: change --deliver to the channel the user checks first.