What This Is
A reference library of reusable thinking patterns, logical fallacies, cognitive biases, and reasoning tools. Not a skill that does something — a skill you consult. Like having a bookshelf of thinking tools that other skills (and you) can pull from.
Every other skill in the library uses these patterns implicitly. This makes them explicit, searchable, and learnable.
When to Use
- "What mental model applies here?"
- "Am I falling for a fallacy or bias?"
- "What's the name for that thinking pattern?"
- "How should I reason about this uncertainty?"
- "Is my argument well-structured?"
- "Am I framing this problem correctly?"
- Reference during any thinking session
- Teaching and learning
- "I feel like there's a principle I'm missing"
Important: Explain Your Terms
When using mental models in conversation or output, always explain the term in plain language. Don't just drop jargon.
Bad: "You should apply bounded rationality here." Good: "You're dealing with bounded rationality — the idea that we can't be perfectly rational because we have limited time and information, so we pick the first good enough option."
Bad: "This is a classic case of hedonic adaptation." Good: "This is hedonic adaptation — we return to baseline happiness after positive events, so the new car will feel great for a while, then become normal."
Rule of thumb: If the term has a Wikipedia page, assume the user doesn't know it. Define it once, then use it freely.
Decision Tree: Which Reference to Consult
User asks about...
│
├─ "What model/framework applies here?"
│ └─→ references/mental-models.md
│ (40+ models: decision, systems, strategy, human nature, creativity, growth)
│
├─ "Is this a fallacy?" / "Bad logic" / "Invalid argument"
│ └─→ references/fallacies.md
│ (25+ fallacies: relevance, presumption, ambiguity, statistical, systemic)
│
├─ "Am I biased?" / "Is this a cognitive bias?"
│ └─→ references/cognitive-biases.md
│ (70+ biases clustered by task: estimation, decision, hypothesis, attribution, recall, social)
│
├─ "How should I reason about this?" / "What kind of thinking is this?"
│ └─→ references/reasoning-patterns.md
│ (Deduction, induction, abduction, Bayesian updating, causal reasoning)
│
├─ "How do I handle uncertainty?" / "What are the odds?" / "Should I gather more info?"
│ └─→ references/uncertainty-tools.md
│ (Expected value, base rates, calibration, fat tails, scenario planning)
│
├─ "Is this a good argument?" / "How do I evaluate evidence?"
│ └─→ references/argumentation.md
│ (Burden of proof, evidence hierarchies, steelmanning, falsifiability)
│
├─ "Am I thinking about this correctly?" / "How do I check my own reasoning?"
│ └─→ references/metacognition.md
│ (Notice confusion, confidence calibration, circle of competence, thinking hygiene)
│
├─ "Am I solving the right problem?" / "How should I frame this?"
│ └─→ references/problem-framing.md
│ (Reframing, root cause analysis, Cynefin framework, constraint analysis)
│
├─ "Why do people/teams behave this way?" / "Group dynamics" / "Social patterns"
│ └─→ references/social-dynamics.md
│ (Groupthink, social proof, coordination, incentives, status games, tribalism)
│
├─ "Why do I/others feel/act this way?" / "Human psychology" / "Motivation"
│ └─→ references/psychological-realities.md
│ (Hedonic adaptation, cognitive dissonance, flow state, loss aversion, identity)
│
├─ "How does time/change affect this?" / "Statistics" / "Distributions" / "Math intuition"
│ └─→ references/quantitative-intuitions.md
│ (Power laws, mean reversion, compounding, fat tails, Goodhart's Law, S-curves)
│
└─ "What model/framework applies here?"
└─→ references/mental-models.md
(50+ models: decision, systems, strategy, human nature, creativity, growth, action)
Reference Index
| File | Contents | Model Count |
|---|---|---|
references/mental-models.md |
Core mental models across 9 categories | ~50 models |
references/fallacies.md |
Logical fallacies with detection guide | ~25 fallacies |
references/cognitive-biases.md |
Cognitive biases clustered by task type | ~70 biases |
references/reasoning-patterns.md |
How conclusions are formed | ~10 patterns |
references/uncertainty-tools.md |
Probability and uncertainty tools | ~12 tools |
references/argumentation.md |
Building and evaluating arguments | ~10 concepts |
references/metacognition.md |
Thinking about thinking | ~12 practices |
references/problem-framing.md |
Defining problems before solving them | ~10 techniques |
references/psychological-realities.md |
How humans actually work (not errors, features) | ~20 models |
references/social-dynamics.md |
How groups, networks, and collective behavior work | ~20 models |
references/quantitative-intuitions.md |
How numbers, time, and distributions actually behave | ~20 models |
Output Format
When consulted during a thinking session:
## Applicable Thinking Tools
### 🧭 Sense-Making (How to see this)
1. **[Model/Pattern Name]** — [one-line explanation]
→ How it applies: [specific to user's context]
→ Watch out for: [common misuse]
### ⚡ Action (What to do)
2. **[Model/Pattern Name]** — [one-line explanation]
→ Actionable step: [concrete next action]
### 🚨 Errors Detected
- **[Fallacy/Bias Name]** — [where it appears in user's reasoning]
→ Fix: [how to correct the thinking]
### 🔍 Check Your Thinking
- **[Meta-cognitive practice]** — [what to examine about your own reasoning]
### 📚 Related Reading
- [Other models/patterns that might also apply]
Cross-Reference Map
Some situations pull from multiple reference files:
| Situation | Primary | Also Check |
|---|---|---|
| Making a decision under uncertainty | uncertainty-tools.md |
mental-models.md (decision section), cognitive-biases.md (decision biases) |
| Evaluating someone's argument | fallacies.md |
argumentation.md, cognitive-biases.md (hypothesis assessment) |
| Planning a project | problem-framing.md |
mental-models.md (systems section), quantitative-intuitions.md (S-curves, compounding) |
| Debugging your own thinking | metacognition.md |
cognitive-biases.md, reasoning-patterns.md |
| Preparing for a debate | argumentation.md |
fallacies.md, reasoning-patterns.md |
| Understanding why a group made a bad decision | social-dynamics.md |
cognitive-biases.md (social section), psychological-realities.md |
| Choosing a strategy | mental-models.md (strategy section) |
uncertainty-tools.md, problem-framing.md, quantitative-intuitions.md |
| Learning a new skill | mental-models.md (growth section) |
metacognition.md (circle of competence), psychological-realities.md (flow state) |
| Understanding someone's behavior | psychological-realities.md |
cognitive-biases.md (attribution section), social-dynamics.md |
| Analyzing risk over time | quantitative-intuitions.md |
uncertainty-tools.md (fat tails), mental-models.md (inversion) |
| Designing incentives or systems | social-dynamics.md |
mental-models.md (incentives), quantitative-intuitions.md (Goodhart's Law) |
Quick Reference: Top 10 Most Useful
If you only remember ten, remember these:
- Inversion — Ask "how to fail" to find success paths
- Second-Order Thinking — "And then what?"
- Map vs Territory — Your model is not reality
- Bayesian Updating — Update beliefs proportionally to evidence
- Opportunity Cost — What you give up by choosing
- Steel-manning — Argue the strongest version of the opposition
- Circle of Competence — Know what you don't know
- Root Cause Analysis — Ask "why" five times
- Confirmation Bias — The most common and dangerous bias
- Reversible vs Irreversible — Decide fast or slow based on reversibility