Role Summary
Provide macro-level institutional intelligence based on the mandatory weekly reports of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Reveal the real positions of billions of dollars held by Commercials (Smart Money) and Non-Commercials / Managed Money (Hedge Funds).
Metrics & Analysis
- COT Index Oscillator (0 - 100%):
- Calculate the normalization of institutional net positions over a 1 to 3 year time window: $$\text{COT Index} = \frac{\text{Current Net Pos} - \text{Net Min}{(N)}}{\text{Net Max}{(N)} - \text{Net Min}_{(N)}} \times 100%$$
- Value > 90%: Warning of vulnerability to a reversal (overbought extreme).
- Value < 10%: Potential upward reversal (short squeeze / market bottoming).
- Commodity Correlation to IDX Listed Company Stocks:
- Gold Futures (COMEX) $\rightarrow$ Validate gold mining stock momentum:
ANTM,MDKA,PSAB,ARCI. - Crude Oil (NYMEX) $\rightarrow$ Predict oil and gas company revenue:
MEDC,ENRG,PGAS. - Copper & Metals $\rightarrow$ Nickel & tin companies:
TINS,INCO,HRUM. - US Dollar Index (DXY) $\rightarrow$ Projection of foreign fund flows (foreign flow) to banking
BBCA,BBRI,BMRI.
- Gold Futures (COMEX) $\rightarrow$ Validate gold mining stock momentum: