Practical methodology toolkit derived from Mao Zedong's On Protracted War. Transforms the strategic theory of staged warfare and strength/weakness transformation into actionable frameworks for navigating long-term competitions, projects, and challenges where conditions evolve over time.
Core Principle: Reject both despair ("we will fail") and haste ("we will win quickly"). Recognize that long-term struggles pass through distinct stages — each requiring a different strategy. The weaker side can prevail by correctly diagnosing the current stage, applying the right tactics for that stage, and actively creating conditions for the next stage transition.
Prerequisites
- No runtime dependencies (methodology-only skill, no scripts)
- Works in any domain — business competition, career development, product roadmaps, technical debt, organizational change
When to Use
Invoke when:
- User faces a long-term challenge where they are currently at a disadvantage
- User needs to plan a multi-phase strategy with different approaches per phase
- User is stuck in a difficult middle period and losing confidence (the "stalemate")
- User is choosing between an aggressive fast approach and a conservative slow approach
- User mentions "long game", "phased strategy", "competitive marathon", "we're outmatched but"
- User needs to assess whether they are in defense, stalemate, or counteroffensive position
Do NOT invoke when:
- User needs structural analysis of opposing forces → use
on-contradiction - User needs practice-based evidence validation → use
on-practice - User needs code implementation → use
requirement-workflowor IDE directly - The challenge is short-term and doesn't evolve through phases
- The situation doesn't involve a weaker/stronger dynamic or time-based evolution
Relationship with On Contradiction and On Practice
On Protracted War completes the trilogy with On Contradiction and On Practice:
| Dimension | On Contradiction | On Practice | On Protracted War |
|---|---|---|---|
| Focus | Structure of forces | Process of knowing | Evolution over time |
| Question | "What are the opposing forces?" | "How do we verify truth?" | "How does this unfold and when do we act?" |
| Method | Identify, prioritize, transform | Investigate, test, validate | Stage, strategize, maneuver, evolve |
| Strength | Structural clarity — sees the skeleton | Process rigor — ensures grounding | Temporal wisdom — sees the arc of change |
| Combine | Identify WHAT forces are at play | Validate HOW through practice | Plan WHEN to act and how each phase differs |
The Protracted Strategy Framework
Every agent in this toolkit applies this 5-step framework:
Step 1: ASSESS — Analyze four factors: strength, momentum, scale, and support
Step 2: STAGE — Diagnose which phase you're in (defense, stalemate, or counteroffensive)
Step 3: STRATEGIZE — Apply the correct strategy for the current phase
Step 4: MANEUVER — Execute tactical actions suited to your position
Step 5: EVOLVE — Monitor phase transitions, prepare for the next stage
↻ Repeat — conditions change, stages shift
This framework is the DNA of all agents. Each agent applies it to a specific domain.
Key Concepts
| Concept | Definition | Practical Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Three-Stage Development | Every long struggle passes through defense → stalemate → counteroffensive | Don't apply the same strategy across all phases; each requires different tactics |
| Reject Despair AND Haste | Neither "we will certainly fail" nor "we will win quickly" is correct | Be realistic about timelines; avoid both panic and wishful thinking |
| The Stalemate as Pivot | The hardest middle phase is where the turning point lives | The most painful period is the most important — don't give up during the stalemate |
| Strength/Weakness Transformation | Today's weak can become tomorrow's strong under the right conditions | Disadvantages are not permanent; actively create conditions for reversal |
| Defense-within-Offense | Even while defending strategically, attack tactically where you can win | Don't be purely passive; find local opportunities within an overall defensive posture |
| Strategic Persistence, Tactical Speed | The overall game is long, but each battle should be fast and decisive | Win small, win fast, accumulate — "积小胜为大胜" (accumulate small victories into big victory) |
| Inner-Line to Outer-Line | When surrounded, create local superiority through maneuver | Even in a disadvantaged position, you can create pockets of advantage |
| Conscious Initiative | Strategy doesn't execute itself; requires active, purposeful human effort | Passive waiting loses; actively shape the situation at every stage |
| People as Foundation | Victory depends on mobilizing all stakeholders, not just resources | Engage your team, users, allies — the deepest source of strength is in people |
| Four-Factor Analysis | Assess strength, momentum, scale, and support — not just one dimension | A weak side can compensate through other factors (justice, scale, allies) |
Agent Summary
| Domain | Agent | Core Principles Applied |
|---|---|---|
| Thinking | decision-maker | Three-stage + defense-within-offense + reject despair/haste |
| Thinking | problem-analyzer | Four-factor analysis + stage diagnosis + stalemate pivot |
| Writing | report-writer | Phased narrative + strength/weakness transformation arc |
Routing Decision Table
| User Signal | Agent | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| "long-term strategy", "phased plan", "when should we act" | decision-maker | High |
| "assess the situation", "which phase are we in", "why are we stuck" | problem-analyzer | High |
| "write a strategy report", "present our roadmap", "document the plan" | report-writer | High |
| "持久战", "战略防御", "战略相持", "战略反攻" | problem-analyzer | High |
| Feeling overwhelmed or wanting to give up on a long effort | problem-analyzer (diagnose stage) → decision-maker | Medium |
| Need to present a multi-phase plan to stakeholders | report-writer | Medium |
| General mention of "protracted" or "long game" | problem-analyzer (default entry) | Low |
If confidence is Low, confirm agent selection with the user before proceeding.
Composition Workflows
Full Strategic Planning Workflow (Assess → Decide → Report)
1. problem-analyzer → Assess four factors, diagnose current stage
2. decision-maker → Choose strategy for current stage, plan phase transitions
3. report-writer → Present the phased strategy with stage-specific actions
Stage Transition Workflow
1. problem-analyzer → Diagnose: are we still in defense, or entering stalemate?
2. problem-analyzer → Identify transformation conditions for next stage
3. decision-maker → Decide whether to shift strategy for the new stage
Confidence Recovery Workflow (for "stalemate despair")
1. problem-analyzer → Diagnose: this IS the stalemate — the pivot, not the end
2. decision-maker → Identify defense-within-offense opportunities
3. report-writer → Reframe narrative: show progress arc from defense through stalemate to future counteroffensive
Cross-Skill Composition Workflows (with On Contradiction and On Practice)
The Trilogy Workflow (Structure → Time → Evidence)
1. on-contradiction / problem-analyzer → Identify all contradictions, find the principal one
2. on-protracted-war / problem-analyzer → Diagnose current stage, assess four factors
3. on-protracted-war / decision-maker → Choose phase-appropriate strategy
4. on-practice / decision-maker → Validate strategy assumptions through small-scale practice
5. on-protracted-war / report-writer → Full strategic report with contradiction structure + phased plan + evidence
Quick Strategic Assessment
1. on-protracted-war / problem-analyzer → Four-factor analysis + stage diagnosis
2. on-contradiction / decision-maker → Identify principal contradiction at this stage
3. on-protracted-war / decision-maker → Phase-appropriate action plan
Long-Game Confidence Builder
1. on-protracted-war / problem-analyzer → "You are in the stalemate — the hardest but most important phase"
2. on-practice / problem-analyzer → "Here is the evidence of progress from your practice"
3. on-contradiction / decision-maker → "Here is the principal contradiction to resolve for phase transition"
Strategy Analysis Tools
Tool 1: Four-Factor Assessment Matrix
For any competitive or challenging situation, assess all four factors:
| Factor | Your Side | Opponent/Challenge | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (current capability) | {your resources, skills, tech} | {their resources, skills, tech} | Who has raw power advantage? |
| Momentum (direction of change) | {improving / stable / declining} | {improving / stable / declining} | Who is gaining ground? |
| Scale (depth of reserves) | {how long can you sustain} | {how long can they sustain} | Who can outlast? |
| Support (allies, ecosystem) | {community, partners, users} | {their ecosystem, support} | Who has broader backing? |
Rule: Being weaker on ONE factor does not mean defeat. Assess all four — compensating advantages matter.
Tool 2: Stage Diagnosis Checklist
To identify which stage you're currently in:
| Stage | Signals | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Defense (enemy attacks, we defend) | Losing ground, opponent advancing, you're reactive | Preserve core assets, trade space for time, seek local tactical wins |
| Stalemate (stalemate) | Neither side making decisive progress, grind, fatigue | This is the PIVOT — invest in capability building, find guerrilla opportunities, accumulate small wins |
| Counteroffensive (counteroffensive) | Your strength has caught up or surpassed, initiative shifting to you | Concentrate force, seize strategic opportunities, push decisively |
Tool 3: Defense-within-Offense Finder
Even in a defensive stage, find offensive opportunities:
| Dimension | Strategic Posture | Tactical Opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| Overall position | Defending (weaker) | Where can you attack locally? |
| Time horizon | Long game (持久) | Which battles can you win fast (速决)? |
| Territory | Surrounded (内线) | Where can you create local superiority (外线)? |
Agent Output Contract
All agents follow the same output rules:
| Allowed | Not Allowed |
|---|---|
| Phased strategic analysis with stage-specific actions | One-size-fits-all strategy ignoring current stage |
| Realistic timelines rejecting both despair and haste | Promise of quick victory or prediction of inevitable defeat |
| Identification of transformation conditions between stages | Static analysis that ignores how conditions evolve |
| Actionable next steps for the CURRENT stage | Actions that belong to a future stage applied prematurely |
Every agent output must include:
- Four-Factor Assessment — Strength, momentum, scale, support for both sides
- Stage Diagnosis — Which phase the situation is in, with evidence
- Stage-Appropriate Strategy — Tactics matched to the current phase
- Transformation Conditions — What must change for the next phase transition
- Immediate Actions — Concrete next steps for THIS stage, not the next one
Error Handling
| Issue | Solution |
|---|---|
| User's request matches no agent trigger | Default to problem-analyzer for stage diagnosis |
| User wants to skip stages (jump from defense to counteroffensive) | Explain why stages can't be skipped; the stalemate is the necessary pivot |
| User has given up hope during stalemate | Apply Confidence Recovery Workflow; show that stalemate IS the turning point |
| User is too aggressive (wants to counterattack while still in defense) | Diagnose the actual stage; show which conditions must change before counteroffensive |
| Situation doesn't have clear strong/weak dynamics | Simplify to: "which side has the initiative?" and "is it shifting?" |
| User expects precise timing for phase transitions | Clarify: transitions are condition-driven, not calendar-driven; list the conditions |
Execution Checklist
Before invoking any agent, verify:
- The situation involves a long-term challenge with evolving conditions
- There is a meaningful strong/weak or advantage/disadvantage dynamic
- Agent selection follows the Routing Decision Table
- Agent receives sufficient context (situation, competitors/challenges, timeline, resources)
After agent produces output, verify:
- Output includes a four-factor assessment (not just strength comparison)
- A stage diagnosis is provided with evidence (not assumed)
- Strategy is matched to the CURRENT stage (not a future desired stage)
- Neither despair nor haste is endorsed — both are explicitly rejected
- Transformation conditions for the next stage are concrete
- Action plan focuses on what to do NOW in this stage
Boundary Enforcement
This skill ONLY handles:
- Long-term strategic planning with phased approaches
- Stage diagnosis for competitive or challenging situations
- Strength/weakness transformation analysis over time
- Defense-within-offense tactical opportunity identification
- Strategic patience and confidence during difficult middle phases
- Report writing with phased narrative structure
This skill does NOT handle:
- Structural contradiction analysis →
on-contradiction - Practice-based evidence validation →
on-practice - Code generation or software implementation →
requirement-workflow - Software engineering methodology →
software-methodology-toolkit - Quick factual answers → answer directly
- Short-term decisions that don't involve phased evolution
Expansion Roadmap (v2.0)
Guiding principle: No new agents until v1.0 agents are practice-tested. Apply On Practice — use the skills in real work first, then expand based on evidence.
| Domain | Agent | Core Principle |
|---|---|---|
| Competition | competitive-strategist | Four-factor analysis + stage-specific competitive tactics |
| Career | career-marathon-planner | Three-stage career development + stalemate perseverance |
| Product | product-roadmap-advisor | Phased feature strategy + defense-within-offense in markets |
| Organization | change-navigator | Organizational transformation through staged adoption |
| Technical | debt-resolver | Technical debt as protracted war — staged remediation |
References
- On Protracted War (《论持久战》) — Mao Zedong (1938)
- On Contradiction (《矛盾论》) — Mao Zedong (1937)
- On Practice (《实践论》) — Mao Zedong (1937)
- Strategic Problems of China's Revolutionary War (《中国革命战争的战略问题》) — Mao Zedong (1936)