SuperAPI AI Directory

business-picker

Data & analytics

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Updated 10-15 23:44

About this skill

Do business, not stocks

R — Original text (Reading)

"We think of ourselves as business analysts — not as market analysts, not as macroeconomic analysts, and not even as security analysts." (1987) "Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers." (2021)

I — Methodology skeleton

Buying a stock = buying part of a business, and it should be evaluated using the same standards as buying the entire business:

  • Focus on the business's economic characteristics (moat/pricing power/management), not stock price movements
  • Focus on long-term cash flow generation ability, not quarterly earnings fluctuations
  • Do not predict market direction; only analyze business quality
  • The holding period is measured in "years"; what is measured in "days" is trading, not investing

A1 — Application in the book

Case: Apple investment

  • Problem: How to do value investing in the technology industry?
  • Use: Treat Apple as a business rather than a stock—evaluate its ecosystem lock-in effect, user loyalty, and cash flow
  • Result: 5.55% equity stake; Berkshire's share of Apple earnings ($5.6 billion) far exceeds the dividends received ($785 million)

A2 — Trigger scenarios

  1. The user asks "Will this stock go up?"—should shift to "Is this business good?"
  2. The user is looking at candlestick charts or technical indicators—should shift to looking at financial statements and business models
  3. The user focuses on "market sentiment" rather than "business analysis"
  4. The user is fixated on short-term stock price fluctuations

Language signals

  • "Will this stock go up?"
  • "How are the technicals?"
  • "The stock price has reached support"
  • "It fell X% today, should I sell?"

Distinction from adjacent skills

  • Difference from mr-market : Mr. Market focuses on how to deal with price fluctuations; doing business focuses on not looking at price at all and only looking at the business

E — Executable steps

  1. Assume you are going to buy the entire company—use the same standards as evaluating a private business

    • Completion standard: write one page on "If this company were unlisted, how much would you be willing to pay to buy it"
  2. Evaluate three core dimensions

    • Economic characteristics (moat width)
    • Management quality (integrity + ability)
    • The relationship between price and value
    • Completion standard: each dimension has specific evidence to support it
  3. Ignore all market noise(stock price movements/analyst ratings/market sentiment)

    • Completion standard: the decision document contains nothing related to price movements

B — Boundaries

  • Requires a circle of competence—you cannot analyze every business
  • Unlisted companies have no liquidity and cannot be simply analogized
  • Author's blind spot: Buffett can influence corporate decisions (controlling stakes/board seats), while retail investors cannot

Related skills (to be filled in stage 3)

  • depends-on: circle-of-competence, economic-moat
  • composes-with: aesop-three-questions, look-through-earnings

Audit information

  • Verification passed: V1 ✓ / V2 ✓ / V3 ✓
  • Distillation time: 2026-04-16