china-variance-commentary

Purpose

Write professional A-share earnings review — structured variance commentary on Chinese company financial results.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 paid) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 free alternative)

get_financials(ticker, "income")     → Revenue, profit data
get_financials(ticker, "balance")    → Balance sheet data
get_quote(ticker)                    → Market context

Secondary Sources

CNINFO — earnings releases
Brokerage research reports — consensus estimates
HuiBo / Tonghuashun — consensus estimates

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Actuals and Estimates

Data collection:

Metric	Actual (Actuals)	Consensus (一致预期)	Prior	YoY	QoQ
Operating revenue
Gross margin
Net profit attributable to parent
Net profit excluding non-recurring items
EPS
Operating cash flow

Step 2: Variance Analysis

Variance table:

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Variance	% vs Cons	% vs Prior	Impact
Operating revenue
Gross margin
Net profit attributable to parent
Net profit excluding non-recurring items
EPS
ROE

Variance classification:

Variance	Classification	Commentary
Revenue +5% vs cons	Slight beat
Revenue +15% vs cons	Strong beat
Revenue -5% vs cons	Slight miss
Revenue -15% vs cons	Significant miss

Step 3: Driver Analysis

Key drivers decomposition:

Revenue drivers:

收入变动 = 量增 + 价增 + 产品结构 + 收购/处置

分解:
1. 销量变化: +X% (驱动因素)
2. 价格变化: +X% (提价/促销)
3. 产品组合: +X% (高毛利产品占比提升)
4. 其他: +X% (并表/汇率)

Margin drivers:

毛利率变动 = 原材料成本 + 人工成本 + 制造费用 + 产品结构

分解:
1. 原材料: -X ppts (价格上涨/下降)
2. 人工: +X ppts (效率提升/人工成本上涨)
3. 制造费用: +X ppts (产能利用率)
4. 产品结构: +X ppts (高毛利产品占比)
5. 其他: X ppts

Net profit bridge:

归母净利润变动
├── 营业收入影响: +¥XX万
├── 毛利率影响: +¥XX万
├── 费用率影响: +¥XX万
│   ├── 销售费用: -¥XX万
│   ├── 管理费用: +¥XX万
│   └── 研发费用: +¥XX万
├── 其他收益影响: +¥XX万
├── 投资收益影响: +¥XX万
├── 减值损失影响: -¥XX万
├── 营业外收支影响: +¥XX万
├── 所得税影响: -¥XX万
└── 归母净利润变动: +¥XX万

Step 4: Segment Commentary

By segment:

Segment	Revenue	Growth	Margin	Comment

By geography:

Region	Revenue	Growth	Comment
Domestic
Overseas

Step 5: Balance Sheet Commentary

Key BS changes:

Item	Change	Driver	Impact
Monetary funds
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Goodwill
Interest-bearing debt

Step 6: Cash Flow Commentary

Cash flow analysis:

Item	Amount	Change	Comment
Operating activities cash flow
Investing activities cash flow
Financing activities cash flow
Net increase in cash

Key observations:

OCF vs Net income comparison
CapEx intensity
Dividend payment
Debt activity

Step 7: Forward-Looking Commentary

Guidance and outlook:

Area	Commentary
Revenue guidance	Management guidance
Profit guidance	Earnings outlook
Investment plan	CapEx plans
Strategic direction	Strategic initiatives

Step 8: Write the Commentary

Standard format (业绩点评):

【业绩点评】[Company] [Period] [Beat/Miss/In-line]

核心结论:
- 营收XX亿, 同比+/-X%, 超/低于预期X%
- 归母净利润XX亿, 同比+/-X%, 超/低于预期X%
- 扣非净利润XX亿, 同比+/-X%

要点:
1. [Key driver 1]
2. [Key driver 2]
3. [Key driver 3]

详细分析:

一、营业收入
   [Revenue commentary with drivers]

二、盈利能力
   [Margin analysis]

三、费用分析
   [Expense commentary]

四、资产负债表
   [Key BS changes]

五、现金流量
   [CF commentary]

六、展望
   [Forward-looking]

风险提示:
- [Key risks]

风险提示: 本内容仅供研究参考, 不构成投资建议。

China-Specific Commentary Considerations

Key Metrics to Highlight

Metric	Why Important
Net profit attributable to parent	Standard metric for A-share investors
Net profit excluding non-recurring items	Shows core business quality
Operating cash flow	Cash generation quality
Gross margin/Net margin	Profitability trends
ROE	Return on equity benchmark
Debt-to-asset ratio	Leverage concern

Common Earnings Themes

Pattern	Typical Commentary
Revenue up, profit down	Margin compression
Profit up, cash flow down	Earnings quality concern
High government subsidies	Sustainability question
Large impairment	Asset quality
High related-party transactions	Revenue quality
Contract liabilities surge	Future revenue visibility

Language Conventions

English	Chinese
Beat estimates	Beat expectations
Miss estimates	Below expectations
In-line	In line with expectations
Year-over-year	Year-over-year
Quarter-over-quarter	Quarter-over-quarter
Adjusted	Adjusted
Recurring	Recurring
One-time	One-off
Core	Core / Excluding non-recurring items

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

All actuals verified from source
Consensus figures cited
Variances calculated correctly
Drivers identified and explained
Balance sheet / CF covered
Forward outlook included
Risks highlighted
Chinese terminology correct

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable

ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare

akshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare): Skip iFind, use AkShare only