Purpose
Track and maintain A-share investment logic/thesis for portfolio positions and watchlist names, ensuring thesis validity is continuously monitored.
Data Sources
Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 paid) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 free alternative)
get_quote(ticker) → Current price, valuation
get_historical_data(ticker) → Price trajectory
get_financials(ticker, "income") → Financial performance
# News (china-news MCP — separate server)
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}") → News affecting thesis
get_industry_stocks(industry="...") → Peer context
Secondary Sources
- Cninfo announcements — corporate actions and filings
- Earnings briefings — management commentary
- Broker research reports — analyst updates
- Wind / Choice — ownership and flow data
Workflow
Step 1: Define / Load Thesis
Thesis statement template:
公司：[Company]（[Ticker]）
行业：[Industry]
方向：[Long / Short / Watch]
核心投资逻辑 (3-5 bullet points):
1. [Key driver 1]
2. [Key driver 2]
3. [Key driver 3]
目标价：¥XX.XX (X% upside/downside)
时间 horizon：[6M / 1Y / 2Y]
置信度：[High / Medium / Low]
Thesis components:
| Component | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Core thesis | Why will the stock move? | Wholesale price uptrend drives earnings beat |
| Key assumptions | What must be true? | Wholesale price >1000 yuan, sell-through growth >15% |
| Catalysts | What triggers re-rating? | Q1 earnings, wholesale price data, policy changes |
| Risks | What could break the thesis? | Wholesale price decline, competitor volume ramp-up, policy risk |
| Target | Fair value estimate | ¥2000 (based on 25x PE) |
| Stop loss | Downside risk limit | ¥1500 (corresponding to 20x PE) |
Step 2: Track Key Data Points
Company-specific KPIs:
| KPI | Frequency | Source | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| e.g., wholesale price | Weekly | Channel research, news | ↑ / → / ↓ |
| e.g., sell-through growth | Monthly | Distributor feedback | ↑ / → / ↓ |
| e.g., capacity utilization | Quarterly | Annual report/interim report | ↑ / → / ↓ |
Financial metrics to track:
| Metric | Last Reported | Trend | Thesis Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||
| Gross margin | |||
| Net margin | |||
| ROE | |||
| Net debt/EBITDA |
Market metrics:
| Metric | Current | 52W High | 52W Low | Thesis Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock price | ||||
| Market cap | ||||
| PE (TTM) | ||||
| PB | ||||
| YTD return |
Step 3: Monitor Catalysts
Catalyst checklist:
| Catalyst | Expected Date | Status | Outcome | Thesis Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 quarterly report | Apr 25 | Pending | ||
| Wholesale price data | Weekly | Ongoing | Stable at 980 yuan | Positive |
| Shareholders' meeting | May 15 | Scheduled |
Catalyst outcome assessment:
- Confirming: Result supports thesis → increase conviction
- Neutral: Result as expected → maintain position
- Breaking: Result contradicts thesis → reduce/exit position
Step 4: Thesis Validity Check
Regular review questions:
-
Has the thesis changed?
- Core drivers still intact?
- New information adding to or subtracting from thesis?
-
Are assumptions still valid?
- Key assumptions: still on track?
- Any material change to underlying business?
-
Is the timing right?
- Catalyst timeline progressing as expected?
- Market pricing in the thesis?
-
Is the risk/reward still favorable?
- Upside/downside ratio updated?
- Entry price still reasonable?
-
Should thesis be adjusted?
- Target price update
- Risk factors added/removed
- Time horizon extended/contracted
Step 5: Thesis Status
Status categories:
| Status | Definition | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Intact (logic intact) | All assumptions hold, catalysts on track | Maintain / add on weakness |
| Under pressure | Some assumptions challenged, thesis not broken | Monitor closely, define exit criteria |
| Broken (logic broken) | Core thesis invalidated | Exit position, document lessons |
| Evolving | Thesis needs update based on new info | Update thesis statement, re-evaluate |
Step 6: Update Documentation
Thesis update log:
[公司] 投资逻辑更新 [Date]
一、当前状态：[Intact / Under pressure / Broken / Evolving]
二、本期间重要变化：
- [Change 1]: [Impact on thesis]
- [Change 2]: [Impact on thesis]
三、数据追踪：
[Key metrics updated]
四、催化剂进展：
[Catalyst status update]
五、决策：
- [Maintain / Add / Reduce / Exit]
- [Rationale]
六、后续关注：
- [Next check-in date]
- [Key metrics to watch]
Step 7: Portfolio-Level Review
Aggregate view:
| Position | Thesis Status | Conviction | Days Held | P&L | Next Catalyst | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Portfolio-level insights:
- Which theses are working? Common factors?
- Which theses are breaking? Common risks?
- Concentration risk (too many bets on similar thesis?)
- Hedge effectiveness ( shorts protecting longs?)
China-Specific Thesis Considerations
Common A-share Thesis Types
| Thesis Type | Description | Key Metrics |
|---|---|---|
| Wholesale price uptrend | Liquor sector price appreciation | Wholesale price, inventory, sell-through |
| Domestic substitution | Import substitution | Market share, certification progress |
| Capacity clearance | Industry capacity rationalization | Capacity utilization, price |
| Policy tailwinds | Policy tailwind | Policy implementation, subsidies |
| Distress reversal | Distressed turnaround | Debt restructuring, new management |
| Industry consolidation | M&A consolidation | Concentration, M&A activity |
| Technological breakthrough | Technology breakthrough | Patents, orders |
| Consumption upgrade | Premiumization | ASP, product mix |
A-share Market Risks to Track
| Risk Type | Indicator | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Policy risk | Regulatory announcements | Diversify across sectors |
| Systemic risk | Shanghai Composite drawdown | Hedging, cash position |
| Liquidity risk | Margin balances, turnover | Avoid illiquid names |
| Lock-up risk | Unlocking calendar | Avoid near-term unlocks |
| Pledging risk | Shareholder pledge ratio | Check F10 data |
| Goodwill risk | Goodwill/equity ratio | Flag high goodwill names |
Typical A-share Thesis Lifecycle
Week 1-2: Initial idea, data gathering
Week 3-4: Thesis formation, model build
Week 5-8: Position establishment, catalyst tracking
Week 9-16: Thesis validation / adjustment
Week 17+: Outcome assessment, exit decision
Quality Checks
Before delivering thesis update:
- Thesis statement clear and specific
- Key assumptions listed and tracked
- Catalysts documented with dates
- Financial metrics current
- Price trajectory analyzed
- Risk factors updated
- Action recommendation clear
- Next review date set
Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var
IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODEto control data source preference.
ifind-only(strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailableifind-fallback(default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShareakshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only