investment-risk-diligence

Investment Risk Diligence

Use this skill to pressure-test an investment case before synthesis. It should look for ways the thesis can fail, not merely restate generic risk factors.

Inputs

• ResearchTarget from research-target-resolver
• filings, earnings notes, financial snapshot, news digest, market signals, and competitive analysis where available
• known bull, base, or bear claims that need pressure testing
• user portfolio constraints when the risk question is portfolio-specific

Workflow

1. Load the target profile, existing evidence, and any draft thesis claims.
2. Build a risk inventory across business, financial, accounting, governance, legal, regulatory, macro, market-structure, and execution categories.
3. Prioritize risks by evidence strength, severity, time horizon, and ability to break the current thesis.
4. Compare company-disclosed risk factors with recent events, financial trends, and market behavior to find new or underweighted risks.
5. Identify leading indicators, catalysts, and evidence that would reduce or intensify each material risk.
6. Save the diligence note under research/targets/<target>/evidence/risks/.
7. Hand off material risks, contradictions, and watch items to valuation and thesis synthesis.

Read references/risk-diligence-checklist.md before writing the risk note.

Output

Return:

• prioritized risk register
• thesis-breaking questions
• accounting, governance, legal, regulatory, and financing flags
• concentration, cyclicality, and execution risks
• watch indicators and source-monitoring plan
• evidence gaps and unavailable sources
• archive files created or updated
• handoffs to valuation, thesis, and watchlist artifacts

Quality Gate

Before finishing:

• distinguish disclosed generic risks from current, evidence-backed risks
• include at least one thesis-breaking question when a thesis exists
• label probability and impact as estimates unless sourced
• avoid overstating risk from a single weak signal
• preserve source dates, reporting periods, and event timing
• state which risk areas were not assessable from available evidence