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sector-analysis

Data & analytics

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Updated 10-15 19:47

About this skill

Sector Analysis — Narrative-based

Core Philosophy: Why This Sector?

All analysis begins with "why":

Question Role
Why is this sector growing? Source of demand (policy/technology/consumption changes)
Why now? Tipping point, catalyst event
Why these companies? Core nodes in the value chain + dominant companies

Two Approaches

A. RSI Screening (Number-based)

Process:

RSI 70+ 종목 필터링 → 섹터 클러스터링 → 왜 이 섹터에 자금 집중? → 심층 분석

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Based on 14 days, 70 or above indicates strong upward momentum

Interpretation Caution:

  • RSI 70+ = unconditionally overheated ❌
  • RSI 70+ = signal to investigate "why money is flowing in" ✅

B. Narrative-based (Policy/Theme)

Process:

테마 선정 → 밸류 체인 매핑 → 핵심 노드 식별 → 노드별 지배 기업 → 분석 실행

Policy Driver Examples:

Policy Beneficiary Sector Key Question
CHIPS Act Semiconductor manufacturing, equipment Who benefits from fab construction in the U.S.?
IRA Clean energy, EV Which companies meet the tax credit requirements?
America First Defense, infrastructure Who benefits most from reshoring?

Future Industry Themes:

Theme Value Chain Core Nodes
AI GPU design, foundry, HBM memory
Autonomous driving Sensors (LiDAR), software, semiconductors
Robotics Actuators, sensors, AI chips
Space Launch vehicles, satellites, ground infrastructure
Energy SMR, grid, ESS

Sector Analysis Process

Step 1: Theme/Policy Starting Point

Verification Questions:

  • What is the budget size? When is the implementation date?
  • What are the benefit conditions? (e.g., IRA tax credit requirements)
  • Will this trend still be valid in 5 years?

Step 2: Value Chain Mapping

Example — AI Theme:

[설계/IP] → [제조] → [패키징] → [메모리] → [시스템] → [클라우드] → [앱]
    │          │         │          │          │          │          │
  NVIDIA     TSMC     Amkor    SK하이닉스    Dell       AWS      OpenAI
  AMD        삼성      ASE      Micron     Supermicro  Azure    Anthropic
  ARM                                      HPE         GCP

Example — Semiconductor Reshoring (CHIPS Act):

[팹 건설] → [장비] → [소재] → [제조] → [후공정]
    │         │        │        │         │
  건설사    ASML    Entegris   Intel    Amkor
          AMAT     Linde    TSMC(AZ)
          Lam      Air Liquide
          KLA

Step 3: Core Node Identification

Evaluation Criteria (0-3 points each):

Criterion Question
Bottleneck If this node is blocked, does the entire chain stop?
Irreplaceable Difficult to replace with another player?
Margin concentration Are profits concentrated here?
Leverage Biggest beneficiary when the theme grows?

8 points or more = core node ⭐

Example — AI value chain:

Node Bottleneck Irreplaceable Margin Leverage Total
GPU design 3 3 3 3 12 ⭐
Foundry 3 3 2 2 10 ⭐
HBM memory 3 2 2 3 10 ⭐
Cloud 2 1 2 2 7

Step 4: Selecting the dominant company for each node

Selection criteria:

  • No. 1-2 in market share
  • Technology leadership (leading next-generation technology)
  • Financial soundness (capacity to invest)
  • Vertical integration (additional dominance within the value chain)

Step 5: Determining analysis priorities

             핵심 노드          일반 노드
           ┌─────────────┬─────────────┐
  1위 기업 │  🔴 필수    │  🟡 권장    │
           ├─────────────┼─────────────┤
  2위 기업 │  🟡 권장    │  🟢 선택    │
           ├─────────────┼─────────────┤
  3위 이하 │  🟢 선택    │  ⚪ 제외    │
           └─────────────┴─────────────┘

Sector analysis report structure

1. Executive Summary

  • One-sentence sector definition: "[Sector] is an industry that solves [problem]"
  • Why this sector now? (Catalyst)
  • Key investment thesis

2. Source of demand: Why is this sector growing? ⭐ Core

Must start with "Why":

  • What problem is being solved?
  • Among policy/technology/consumption changes, which is the driver?
  • Distinguishing temporary vs structural growth
예시 — 반도체 장비:

문제: 미국 반도체 자급률 12%, 지정학 리스크
정책: CHIPS Act $527억 + 25% 세액공제
결과: 미국 내 팹 건설 붐 → 장비 수요 폭발
구조적?: Yes, 공급망 안보는 장기 트렌드

3. Industry structure

3.1 Value chain map — visualization required 3.2 Competitive intensity (Porter's 5 Forces summary) 3.3 Entry barriers

4. Key player analysis

Company Node Market share Strengths Weaknesses
ASML Equipment (EUV) 100% Monopoly Geopolitics
AMAT Equipment (deposition) 20% Diversification Competition

Positioning map (2x2 matrix) recommended

5. Growth drivers and risks

  • 5.1 Bull scenario: What needs to go well?
  • 5.2 Bear scenario: What could go wrong?

6. Regulatory environment

  • Current regulations
  • Expected changes

7. Investment implications

Result of selecting companies to analyze:

Priority Node Company Rationale
🔴 Required GPU design NVIDIA Core node + No. 1
🔴 Required Foundry TSMC Core node + monopoly
🟡 Recommended HBM SK hynix Core node + No. 1

→ For individual company analysis, use the company-research-report skill

8. Glossary

9. Disclaimer and sources

Technical term explanation rules

Three-tier explanation system (same as company-research-report):

  • Immediate explanation: definition in parentheses
  • Contextual explanation: explain what the numbers mean
  • Glossary: compiled at the end of the report

Workflow

테마 선정 → 밸류 체인 매핑 → 핵심 노드 식별 → 지배 기업 선정 → 보고서 작성
     │
     └→ (RSI 스크리닝 시) 강세 종목 → 섹터 클러스터링 → 왜? → 위 프로세스

Critical Issues

ID Violation
C1 Missing "Why" — Sector description without the source of demand
C2 Missing value chain map
C3 Listing companies without evaluation criteria for key nodes
C4 Listing numbers without a narrative
C5 Missing terminology explanations

Reference files

  • references/valuation_chain_examples.md — Value chain examples by theme
  • references/policy_tracker.md — Summary of key policy drivers