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Skillspolymarket-trading

polymarket-trading

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Updated 10-15 22:15

About this skill

Polymarket Trading

Guide for trading on Polymarket prediction markets. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market on Polygon.

Requirements

Important: Time Sensitivity

Prediction markets are time-sensitive!

  • Check if market end_date has passed or is imminent
  • Consider how much time remains for events to occur
  • Markets about past events have already been resolved
  • Always verify current date context

Getting Fresh News

For news-driven trading, ALWAYS use real-time sources:

  1. Web Search - Use web_search with time filters like "last hour" or "today"
  2. X/Twitter - Check trending topics and breaking news
  3. Cross-reference multiple sources for accuracy
  4. Be skeptical of cached/old results

Tool Categories

Market Discovery (Read-Only)

Tool Use Case
polymarket_trending_markets_get Find what's hot RIGHT NOW (volume in last N minutes)
polymarket_events_search Find events by topic (events contain related markets)
polymarket_events_get Get specific event by ID or URL slug
polymarket_markets_search Find individual markets by keyword
polymarket_markets_list Browse top markets by liquidity/volume
polymarket_markets_get Get details for specific market by ID
polymarket_markets_get_by_slug Get market directly by URL slug

Events vs Markets:

  • Events are top-level objects (e.g., "Super Bowl 2026")
  • Markets are individual outcomes within events (e.g., "Will Chiefs win?")
  • Use search_events first for discovery, then explore markets within events

Trading Analysis

Tool Use Case
polymarket_order_books_get See bid/ask depth for a token
polymarket_prices_get Get current price (BUY or SELL side)

Portfolio Management (Authenticated)

Tool Use Case
polymarket_balances_get Check USDC balance
polymarket_positions_list View current holdings with P&L
polymarket_orders_get List open orders
polymarket_trades_get View trade history

Trading (Authenticated)

Tool Use Case
polymarket_markets_buy Buy shares at market price
polymarket_markets_sell Sell shares at market price
polymarket_orders_create Place limit order at specific price
polymarket_orders_cancel Cancel a specific order
polymarket_orders_cancel_all Cancel all open orders

Optimal Trading Workflow

Finding Good Markets

  1. Use search tools - defaults filter out resolved, expired, and low liquidity markets
  2. Best markets have:
    • Liquidity > $50,000
    • Price between 20-80%
    • End date in the future
    • Recent volume

Before Trading - ALWAYS Check:

# 1. Verify funds
polymarket_balances_get()

# 2. Check spread and liquidity
polymarket_order_books_get(token_id=token_id)

# 3. Get actual execution price
polymarket_prices_get(token_id=token_id, side="BUY")

Executing a Buy

# 1. Get market details to find token_id
market = polymarket_markets_get(market_id)
# token_ids are in market.clob_token_ids - first is YES, second is NO

# 2. Check order book
book = polymarket_order_books_get(token_id=yes_token_id)

# 3. Execute market buy
result = polymarket_markets_buy(token_id=yes_token_id, amount=10)  # $10 USDC

Token ID Rules

Binary Markets (Yes/No)

  • clob_token_ids[0] = YES token
  • clob_token_ids[1] = NO token
  • Buying YES = betting event WILL happen
  • Buying NO = betting event WON'T happen

Token ID Format

  • Token IDs are VERY long integers (76+ digits)
  • ALWAYS pass as strings to avoid truncation

Understanding Prices & Odds

Price Probability Interpretation
0.10 10% Unlikely to happen
0.50 50% Coin flip
0.80 80% Likely to happen
0.95 95% Very likely (near certainty)

Payout Calculation:

  • Buy YES at $0.40, event happens → Win $1.00 per share (profit: $0.60)
  • Buy YES at $0.40, event doesn't happen → Lose $0.40 per share

Common Patterns

"What's happening on Polymarket RIGHT NOW?"

polymarket_trending_markets_get(minutes=5, limit=10)
# Returns markets with most volume in last 5 minutes

"Find events about X"

polymarket_events_search(query="Ukraine ceasefire", limit=5)
# Returns events sorted by volume

"Buy $10 of X at current price"

polymarket_markets_buy(token_id="...", amount=10)
# Executes immediately at best available price

"What's my current portfolio?"

polymarket_positions_list()
# Shows all holdings with P&L

Error Handling

Error Solution
Cloudflare 403 VPN/geo issue - check network
Insufficient balance Deposit USDC on Polygon
Market closed Cannot trade closed markets
Order rejected Check spread, may need better price