htx-derivatives-analyst

HTX Derivatives Analyst

Layer 2 analytical skill that orchestrates 5 atomic Layer 1 skills into a unified pressure score. Use when the user wants a one-shot read on whether a perpetual is overheated, where the squeeze risk lies, and what the directional bias is.

When to use this skill

"How crowded is BTC perpetual right now?"
"Squeeze risk on ETH-USDT?"
"Are longs or shorts in trouble on SOL?"
"Should I open a futures position on BTC right now?"
"Give me a derivatives pressure read on ETH"
"Why is the perpetual moving so fast?"

For pure technical analysis on price, prefer htx-technical-analysis. For just one signal (e.g. only funding), prefer the focused Layer 1 skill.

Underlying tools

This skill does not call REST endpoints directly. It composes Layer 1 skills:

Layer 1 skill	What this analyst pulls from it
`https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/funding-rate`	current rate + 30-period history
`https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/oi-tracker`	current OI + 24h trend
`https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/elite-positioning`	account ratio + position ratio
`https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/liquidation-stream`	recent 7d liquidations
`https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/mark-price`	basis kline (last 20 bars)

If those skills aren't installed, install them first:

htx-cli skill install funding-rate
htx-cli skill install oi-tracker
htx-cli skill install elite-positioning
htx-cli skill install liquidation-stream
htx-cli skill install mark-price

Standard workflow

For a contract <code> (e.g. BTC-USDT), execute these in parallel where possible:

# 1. Funding rate
htx-cli futures market funding-rate <code> --json
htx-cli futures market historical-funding-rate --contract-code <code> --json

# 2. OI snapshot + history
htx-cli futures call GET /linear-swap-api/v1/swap_open_interest -p contract_code=<code> --json
htx-cli futures call GET /linear-swap-ex/market/his_open_interest \
  -p contract_code=<code> -p period=4hour -p size=12 --json

# 3. Elite L/S ratio (both versions)
htx-cli futures call GET /linear-swap-api/v1/swap_elite_account_ratio \
  -p contract_code=<code> -p period=1hour --json
htx-cli futures call GET /linear-swap-api/v1/swap_elite_position_ratio \
  -p contract_code=<code> -p period=1hour --json

# 4. Recent liquidations (7d)
htx-cli futures market liquidation-orders <code> --json

# 5. Basis kline (recent)
htx-cli futures call GET /index/market/history/linear_swap_basis \
  -p contract_code=<code> -p period=60min -p basis_price_type=close -p size=24 --json

Composite pressure score

Score each dimension on 0-100 (higher = more crowded / overheated), then weighted-average:

Dimension	Weight	Computation
Funding	25%	percentile of current rate vs last 30 periods. >85 pct = score 90+
OI surge	20%	24h OI Δ%. ≥+15% → score 90; flat → 50; ≥-15% → score 10
Elite divergence	20%	abs(account_ratio − position_ratio) / account_ratio. >0.3 = score 80+
Liquidation cluster	15%	total 24h liq value / 30d avg. >2× → score 85+
Basis stretch	20%	percentile of current basis vs last 24h. extreme tail = high score

Composite 0-100 → label:

Score	Label	Interpretation
0-30	low	Calm; positions may unwind quietly
31-55	balanced	Healthy two-sided market
56-75	crowded	One side is concentrated; reversal risk rising
76-100	extreme	High-probability cleanout incoming

Squeeze risk classification

Independent of the overall score, also flag squeeze direction:

Setup	Verdict
Funding > 90 pct + elite_account_ratio > 1.5 + recent long-liq surge	long_squeeze (price likely capitulates lower)
Funding < 10 pct + elite_account_ratio < 0.7 + recent short-liq surge	short_squeeze (price likely rips higher)
Mixed	`none`

Output structure

{
  "skill": "derivatives-analyst",
  "symbol": "BTC-USDT",
  "timestamp": "2026-...",
  "summary": {
    "market_state": "overheated_long | overheated_short | balanced | deleveraging",
    "leverage_risk": "high | medium | low",
    "squeeze_risk": "long_squeeze | short_squeeze | none",
    "signal_strength": 0-100,
    "one_liner": "BTC perp funding 0.045% (95th pct), OI +12% 24h, elite position ratio 0.55 — heavy short capital, squeeze risk rising"
  },
  "components": {
    "funding": {"current": 0.00045, "percentile_30p": 95, "score": 92},
    "oi": {"current": 12_500_000_000, "delta_24h_pct": 12, "trend": "rising", "score": 75},
    "elite": {"account_ratio": 1.85, "position_ratio": 0.55, "divergence": 0.7, "score": 88},
    "liquidations": {"total_24h_usd": 45_000_000, "vs_30d_avg": 2.4, "long_pct": 70, "score": 82},
    "basis": {"current_pct": 0.18, "percentile_24h": 92, "score": 78},
    "composite_score": 82
  },
  "actionable": {
    "suggested_action": "avoid new long positions / consider partial profit-taking on existing longs",
    "trigger_conditions": "if OI keeps climbing without price response, expect violent unwind"
  },
  "risk_warning": "Past pressure regimes have ~65% reversal probability within 48h once score > 80."
}

What this skill explicitly does NOT do

⚠️ No all-market long/short ratio — HTX only exposes "elite" (top trader) ratios. Retail-vs-elite divergence is not directly observable.
⚠️ No Taker buy/sell volume — HTX has no dedicated endpoint; would need to derive from trade stream.
⚠️ No liquidation heatmap — no on-platform data; would require external CoinGlass integration.

These data gaps are documented so the agent can tell the user "we have X confidence" rather than over-claiming.

Related skills

https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/funding-rate, https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/oi-tracker, https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/elite-positioning, https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/liquidation-stream, https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/mark-price — data sources
https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/technical-analysis — pair derivatives pressure with price-action read
https://github.com/htx-exchange/htx-skills-hub/sentiment-analyst — pair derivatives crowdedness with broader sentiment