Strategy — Step 3 of 4. Numeric funnel + unit-economics model: rates, traffic, sensitivity bands. Drives downstream channel-mix + budget decisions.
Core Question: "Do the numbers actually work?"
Philosophy, improvement-factor calibration, 9-channel reference, growth-motion ID, when NOT to use:
references/playbook.md[PLAYBOOK].
Critical Gates — Read First
Six hard gates (fire under --fast too — full detail in references/procedures/critical-gates.md [PROCEDURE]):
- Numeric baseline on every target — zero TBDs; benchmarks OK with confidence flag.
- Justification cited — baseline + improvement factor + reasoning, no naked numbers.
- 70% test — partial achievement must still be valuable (higher/lower/binary rules).
- LTV:CAC ≥ 3:1 for acquisition, else explicit Pricing Health Signals flag.
- Growth motion identified — PLG / SLG / Hybrid drives model + channel-mix.
- Three-outcome validation — Business (required), Brand, Community; N/A needs justification.
Quality Gate
Critic 4-point rubric (pass-all): numeric baselines · justified targets · 70% test · LTV:CAC. FAIL → rewrite loop, max 2 cycles, then done_with_concerns with failures pinned as Known Issues.
Before Starting
Per references/_shared/before-starting-check.md [PLAYBOOK]:
| Artifact | Source | Required? |
|---|---|---|
docs/forsvn/artifacts/meta/sketches/prioritize-*.md |
prioritize | Hard gate — missing → NEEDS_CONTEXT |
Prior targets-*.md (same initiative) |
self | Optional — enables Route C delta |
.forsvn/index/manifest.json |
manifest-sync | Recommended — >30d warns |
| Industry baselines | references/benchmarks.md |
Fallback when user lacks rates |
Mode (standard): --fast forces Route C if conditions hold, else Route B (no critic). Hard gates still enforced. references/_shared/mode-resolver.md [PROCEDURE]. Pre-Dispatch (hard-gate, read order, Cold/Warm Start, staleness, growth-motion ID, write-back): references/procedures/pre-dispatch.md [PROCEDURE].
Session execution profile (single-vs-multi): inherit per references/_shared/execution-policy.md.
Artifact Contract
- Path:
docs/forsvn/artifacts/meta-plan-funnel-<YYYY-MM-DD>-targets-<slug>.md(flat v2; re-run renames prior.v[N]) - Lifecycle:
snapshot· review_surface:none - Frontmatter:
skill,version,date,status,stack(=meta),review_surface(=none) - Required sections (cross-stack contract): Funnel Stages · Target Table · Channel → Funnel Stage Map · Three-Outcome Validation · Validation · Baselines
- Side effects: append baselines + growth motion + unit economics to
experience/business.md(mandatory on PASS / done_with_concerns) - Consumed by:
plan-campaign,run-pipeline, future re-runs (delta detection)
Full schema: references/procedures/contract.md + references/format-conventions.md [PROCEDURE].
Agents + Dispatch
6 sub-agents (full focus in agents/):
- L1 parallel: model-selection (model + stage map + channel-to-stage), baseline-collector (rates, benchmarks, unit-economics)
- L2 sequential: target-setter (targets + improvement factors + sensitivity bands) → sanity-check (6-pattern subset) → stress-test (revenue, 70%, ownership, measurement) → critic (4-point Quality Gate, max 2 rewrite cycles)
Three routes — A Full (--deep OR 3+ initiatives across 2+ models: L1 parallel → merge → L2 seq) · B Standard default (known model, 1-2 initiatives: target → sanity → critic) · C Fast Bump (--fast + ≤3 sentences + single initiative + prior targets-*.md: target-setter only).
Spawn mechanics, merge, critic FAIL routing, fallbacks, side effects, chain position: references/procedures/dispatch-mechanics.md [PROCEDURE].
Anti-Patterns
references/anti-patterns.md [ANTI-PATTERN] — 10-pattern catalog (vanity metrics, feature factory, sandbagging, aspirational math, orphan owners, input traps, unit-economics blind spots, cross-stack contract drift, +2). Sanity-check scans 6; critic reads all. Re-read before ship.
Durable Rules (protected)
Completion Status
- DONE — model selected, baselines collected, targets stress-tested, critic PASS
- DONE_WITH_CONCERNS — targets computed but baselines thin/estimated, or critic loop cap hit (failures pinned as Known Issues)
- BLOCKED — no baseline data AND LTV:CAC <3:1; needs business-model fix first (defer to
diagnose) - NEEDS_CONTEXT —
prioritize-*.mdmissing OR baselines absent; recommendprioritize(hard-gated, no INTERVIEW substitute)
Next Step
On PASS, hand the artifact to plan-campaign for channel-mix execution. On drift or new initiatives, re-run for delta detection.
References
- Worked example:
references/examples/funnel-planner-walkthrough.md[EXAMPLE] - Procedures:
references/procedures/{critical-gates, contract, pre-dispatch, dispatch-mechanics}.md - Shared:
references/_shared/{before-starting-check, mode-resolver, pre-dispatch-protocol, artifact-contract-template}.md - Data catalogs:
funnel-models.md,benchmarks.md,unit-economics.md,stress-tests.md,format-conventions.md - Agents in
agents/;critic-agent.mdholds the canonical rubric. Stack conventions:research-skills/CLAUDE.md.