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Skillsanalyze-investment-clock-rotation

analyze-investment-clock-rotation

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Updated 10-15 21:41

About this skill

<essential_principles>

The investment clock simplifies market states into four quadrants:

          金融環境支持（寬鬆）
                ↑
       Q3      │      Q1
     修復過渡   │   理想象限
  ────────────┼────────────→ 獲利成長
       Q4      │      Q2
     最差象限   │   好壞混合
                │
          金融環境不支持（緊縮）
Quadrant Earnings Financial Conditions Meaning Allocation Suggestion
Q1 Ideal Quadrant ↑ Supportive ↑ Friendly to risk assets Bullish, tailwind allocation
Q2 Mixed ↑ Not supportive ↓ Valuation pressure, volatility Volatility management, valuation sensitivity
Q3 Recovery Transition ↓ Supportive ↑ Easing rescue, fundamentals not yet recovered Do not misjudge as a full-blown bull market
Q4 Worst Quadrant ↓ Not supportive ↓ Risk assets vulnerable Risk control, deleveraging

Investment clock charts from different sources may have different axis definitions. This skill defaults to:

  • X-axis: Financial Conditions

    • Left side = easing (highly supportive)
    • Right side = tightening (low supportiveness)

  • Y-axis: Earnings Growth

    • Top = positive growth
    • Bottom = negative growth

If your chart is defined differently, please adjust in the input parameters axis_mapping and clock_convention。

Via atan2(y, x) calculate the angle, then convert to a 12-hour clock:

  • 12 o'clock: straight up (highest earnings, neutral financial conditions)
  • 3 o'clock: right side (tightest financial conditions)
  • 6 o'clock: straight down (lowest earnings)
  • 9 o'clock: left side (loosest financial conditions)

Rotation Direction：

  • Clockwise: typical business cycle path (Q1 → Q2 → Q4 → Q3 → Q1)
  • Counterclockwise: policy intervention or atypical events

This skill usesno API key required data sources:

  • FRED CSV: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id={SERIES_ID}
    • Financial conditions: NFCI (Chicago Fed), STLFSI4 (St. Louis Fed)
    • Earnings proxies: CP (corporate profits), GDP-related indicators

The script is located in the scripts/ directory and can be run directly.

</essential_principles>

  1. Construct coordinates: calculate earnings growth and financial conditions Z-scores from FRED data
  2. Determine quadrant: identify which quadrant it currently falls in
  3. Calculate clock position: convert to a 12-hour clock position
  4. Analyze rotation: determine rotation direction and magnitude
  5. Cycle comparison: compare with the previous cycle (optional)

Output: current quadrant, clock position, rotation summary, allocation suggestions.

<quick_start>

Fastest way: run the default analysis

cd skills/analyze-investment-clock-rotation
pip install pandas numpy requests  # 首次使用
python scripts/investment_clock.py --quick

Example output:

{
  "as_of": "2026-01-15",
  "current_position": {
    "clock_hour": 10,
    "quadrant": "Q1_ideal",
    "earnings_growth": 0.052,
    "financial_conditions_zscore": -0.35
  },
  "interpretation": "理想象限，風險資產相對順風"
}

Full analysis：

python scripts/investment_clock.py \
  --start 2022-01-01 \
  --end 2026-01-19 \
  --compare-cycle 2020-01-01 2022-12-31 \
  --output result.json

</quick_start>

  1. Quick check - view the current investment clock position and quadrant
  2. Full analysis - analyze the rotation path and direction within the time interval
  3. Cycle comparison - Compare rotation characteristics with the previous cycle
  4. Visualization charts - Generate investment clock visualization charts
  5. Methodology learning - Understand the logic of the investment clock model

Please select or directly provide analysis parameters.

After routing, read the corresponding file and execute.

<directory_structure>

analyze-investment-clock-rotation/
├── SKILL.md                           # 本文件（路由器）
├── skill.yaml                         # 前端展示元數據
├── manifest.json                      # 技能元數據
├── workflows/
│   ├── analyze.md                     # 完整分析工作流
│   ├── compare-cycle.md               # 循環比較工作流
│   └── visualize.md                   # 視覺化工作流
├── references/
│   ├── methodology.md                 # 投資時鐘方法論
│   ├── data-sources.md                # FRED 系列代碼與資料來源
│   └── input-schema.md                # 完整輸入參數定義
├── templates/
│   ├── output-json.md                 # JSON 輸出模板
│   └── output-markdown.md             # Markdown 報告模板
└── scripts/
    ├── investment_clock.py            # 主分析腳本
    ├── fetch_data.py                  # 數據抓取工具
    └── visualize.py                   # 視覺化繪圖工具

</directory_structure>

<reference_index>

Methodology: references/methodology.md

  • Investment clock concept and history
  • Four-quadrant definitions and allocation implications
  • Rotation direction interpretation

Data sources: references/data-sources.md

  • FRED series codes (financial conditions/profit proxies)
  • Data frequency and alignment methods

Input parameters: references/input-schema.md

  • Complete parameter definitions
  • Default values and suggested ranges

</reference_index>

<workflows_index>

Workflow Purpose When to use
analyze.md Full analysis When detailed quadrant and rotation analysis is needed
compare-cycle.md Cycle comparison Compare characteristics of different cycles
visualize.md Generate visualization charts When chart presentation is needed
</workflows_index>

<templates_index>

Template Purpose
output-json.md JSON output structure definition
output-markdown.md Markdown report template
</templates_index>

<scripts_index>

Script Command Purpose
investment_clock.py --quick Quickly check current position
investment_clock.py --start DATE --end DATE Full analysis
investment_clock.py --compare-cycle START END Cycle comparison
fetch_data.py --series NFCI,CP Fetch FRED data
visualize.py -i result.json -o chart.png Generate visualization charts
</scripts_index>

<input_schema_summary>

Core parameters

Parameter Type Default value Description
market string US_EQUITY Analysis target
start_date string 2022-01-01 Analysis start point
end_date string today Analysis end point
freq string weekly Frequency (weekly/monthly)

Data source parameters

Parameter Type Description
earnings_series.source string fred / api / csv / manual
earnings_series.series_id string FRED series ID (e.g., CP)
earnings_series.growth_method string yoy / qoq_annualized
financial_conditions_series.source string fred / api / csv
financial_conditions_series.series_id string NFCI / STLFSI4
financial_conditions_series.transform string level / zscore / inverse

Axis parameters

Parameter Type Default value Description
axis_mapping.x string financial_conditions X-axis definition
axis_mapping.y string earnings_growth Y-axis definition
clock_convention.financial_loose_is_left bool true Easing on the left side

For complete parameter definitions, see references/input-schema.md。

</input_schema_summary>

<output_schema_summary>

{
  "skill": "analyze-investment-clock-rotation",
  "as_of": "2026-01-19",
  "market": "US_EQUITY",
  "current_state": {
    "clock_hour": 10,
    "quadrant": "Q1_ideal",
    "quadrant_name": "理想象限",
    "x_value": -0.35,
    "y_value": 0.052
  },
  "rotation_summary": {
    "from_hour": 2,
    "to_hour": 10,
    "direction": "clockwise",
    "magnitude_degrees": 240
  },
  "interpretation": "獲利成長為正，金融環境偏支持，屬於風險資產相對順風的象限"
}

For the complete output structure, see templates/output-json.md。 </output_schema_summary>

<success_criteria> Successful execution should produce:

  • Current quadrant (Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4)
  • Clock position (1-12 o'clock)
  • Profit growth value and financial conditions Z-score
  • Rotation direction (clockwise/counterclockwise)
  • Rotation magnitude (degrees)
  • Allocation recommendations (by quadrant)
  • Cycle comparison summary (if enabled)
  • Visualization charts (optional, output to output/ directory) </success_criteria>