small-data-power-planner

Small Data Power Planner

Mission

Help teams decide what can be learned responsibly from small, imbalanced, expensive, or scarce datasets.

Current pain point: Small datasets are forced through high-capacity methods, producing unstable conclusions and overconfident narratives.

Why this skill exists: Power, uncertainty, resampling, priors, and simpler baselines must be planned before modeling scarce data.

Operating Rules

• Start by restating the decision this skill is supporting.
• Inspect local artifacts first before asking for context.
• Treat scripts as evidence collectors, not as substitutes for judgment.
• Preserve raw data, notebooks, configs, and model artifacts unless the user explicitly asks for mutation.
• Mark missing context as unknown, not provided, or owner decision; do not invent it.
• Classify each blocker as stop, fix-first, monitor, accepted risk, or owner decision.
• Use the output contract exactly unless the user asks for a different format.
• Keep final recommendations auditable: every important claim needs evidence, assumption, or caveat.

What This Skill Must Do

• Transform a vague request into an explicit Small Data Power Planner decision with named owner, evidence, assumptions, and action threshold.
• Inspect local artifacts first: data extracts, schemas, notebooks, SQL, pipeline configs, model reports, tickets, and prior decisions.
• Separate mechanical checks from expert judgment so another reviewer can reproduce what was checked and what was inferred.
• Classify findings as stop, fix-first, monitor, accepted risk, or owner decision instead of producing generic advice.
• Preserve raw evidence and never silently mutate data, notebooks, model artifacts, or production configs.
• Return a decision artifact that can be handed to a data scientist, ML engineer, governance reviewer, or stakeholder without hidden context.

Required Inputs

• sample size
• outcome rate
• candidate features
• effect size of interest
• cost of errors
• collection options

If an input is missing, inspect available files first. Ask only for information that cannot be recovered from the workspace and would change the recommendation.

Workflow

1. Identify the decision and minimum useful effect size.
2. Estimate signal limits, imbalance, uncertainty, and variance risks.
3. Recommend descriptive, Bayesian, resampling, regularized, or data-collection paths.
4. Define validation limits and language for uncertainty.
5. Return a do-model, simplify, or collect-more recommendation.

Red Flags

• more features than observations
• rare outcome with random split
• single holdout set only
• unreported uncertainty
• high-stakes decision from tiny sample

When a red flag appears, slow down and surface it in Risks. A red flag does not always mean stop, but it must change the recommendation or the confidence level.

Resources

• Read references/playbook.md for the skill-specific checklist, scoring rubric, and failure modes.
• Read references/acceptance-tests.md before forward-testing clean, messy, and adversarial requests.
• Read references/agent-portability.md when adapting this skill to Claude, Gemini, Copilot, Cursor, Windsurf, Gravity, LangGraph, CrewAI, AutoGen, or local agents.
• Read references/quality-rubric.md when reviewing whether the output meets senior data-science standards.
• Use scripts/quick_validate_skill.py . --strict before publishing or installing the skill.

Use only the specific reference file needed for the task; keep context small.

Output Contract

Return these sections unless the user requests another format:

• Problem: the decision, artifact, model, data source, or workflow being handled.
• Inputs: files, data, stakeholder context, assumptions, and missing context used.
• Checks performed: concrete inspections, scripts, and reasoning checks.
• Findings: prioritized observations with evidence.
• Decision: go, fix-first, stop, proceed-with-risk, or needs-owner-review.
• Risks: unresolved blockers, caveats, and owner decisions.
• Next actions: smallest useful follow-up steps.
• Artifacts: generated files, specs, reports, scripts, or links.

Final Checks

• Did the response answer the actual decision, not just analyze data?
• Did it preserve evidence and avoid silent mutation?
• Did it name unknowns and owner decisions?
• Did it include at least one concrete next action?
• Did it avoid overclaiming causality, readiness, compliance, or production safety?