theme_leader_identification_skill

Theme Leader Identification Skill

Data dependencies and execution prerequisites

It is recommended to use Wind wind-mcp-skill to obtain underlying data. Before execution, first check whether wind-mcp-skillalready exists locally; if not, prompt the user to install:

# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

# Gitee 镜像（国内）
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

Skill positioning

This skill is used to identify, in hot themes or thematic market conditions, who is the true leader, who is the core force, who is merely following the trend, and whether the theme is currently in the launch, strengthening, diffusion, or ebb stage. The output focus is not simply ranking by price gain, but judging intra-theme status, driving ability, sustainability, and trading crowding, helping users focus their attention on the most representative targets.

Function overview

The core function of this skill is: identify the leader, core force, and follower stocks in hot themes, and determine who is most worth tracking.

It emphasizes judging theme drivers, individual stock recognizability, trading structure, industry logic, and capital preferences together, helping users more clearly understand the role stratification within a theme.

Use cases

• After a hot theme rapidly heats up, it is necessary to determine which is the most core target.
• Users want to avoid chasing follower stocks as if they were leaders during theme rotation.
• The team conducts after-market review and needs to organize changes in intra-theme status.
• When a new theme erupts, it is necessary to quickly establish an understanding of the mainline and echelons.

Working principles

1. Leader identification cannot be based only on short-term price gain ranking; it must combine recognizability, driving ability, and absorption quality.
2. It is necessary to distinguish four levels: leader, core force, follower stocks, and laggards.
3. Theme analysis must state the stage it is in, avoiding discussing status detached from the cycle.
4. If the theme logic is weak or it has clearly ebbed, the value of discussing leaders should be reduced.
5. The main text does not explicitly describe the internal invocation process.

Execution process

Step 1: Confirm theme boundaries and observation window

First define the theme scope to be analyzed this time:

• Whether it is a single clear theme or a collection of multiple similar concepts
• Whether it is observing the current day's hot spot or the持续 mainline of the past week
• Whether the user wants to judge the trading leader or the core assets of the medium-term mainline

Unclear theme boundaries will directly cause subsequent role judgments to be distorted.

Step 2: Sort out theme drivers and core narrative

First answer "why the market is trading this theme." Focus on breaking down:

• Whether the driver comes from policy, industry trends, prosperity data, event catalysts, or pure sentiment diffusion
• Whether the theme has real industry mapping or concept generalization is severe
• Which main narrative the market currently cares about most
• Whether this narrative is sufficient to support continued fermentation of the theme

Step 3: Establish a stock list within the theme and role stratification

Around the main stocks within the theme, first perform preliminary stratification:

• Leader: highest recognizability, strongest driving ability, most concentrated capital absorption
• Core force: large capacity, high stability, plays a confirming role in the theme direction
• Follower stocks: driven by theme sentiment, but with relatively weak independent status
• Laggards: declining presence within the theme or明显 lagging performance

The goal of this step is to build a "structural map," not to immediately give trading recommendations.

Step 4: Check the recognizability and driving effect of leading-stock candidates

A true leading stock usually shares several common characteristics:

• Price performance is leading and sustainable
• Active trading and high market discussion
• When it strengthens, other stocks within the theme are driven upward
• During pullbacks, it often becomes the priority target for capital to flow back into

If a stock only has a large single-day gain but lacks a driving effect, it should be cautiously defined as a leading stock.

Step 5: Combine industry mapping and fundamental support

A theme leader is not necessarily the strongest in fundamentals, but it also cannot be completely detached from business relevance. You should judge:

• Whether the company's relevance to the theme's main line is real and direct
• Whether its business, orders, products, or industry position support its leading status
• Whether theme speculation is severely ahead of fundamentals
• If sentiment fades, which targets are more likely to retain a premium

Step 6: Judge the stage the theme is in and its internal evolution

Leading-stock identification must be viewed within the theme cycle. You should distinguish:

• Launch phase: who ignites first and who provides recognizability
• Strengthening phase: who can best attract incremental capital
• Diffusion phase: who drives the core troops and follower stocks to catch up
• Ebb phase: who can still resist declines and who falls out of the ranks first

Step 7: Output a priority tracking list and risk reminders

Based on a comprehensive ranking of "theme status + capital absorption + industry mapping + stage position," form:

• The leading stocks most worthy of priority tracking
• The core troops worth observing
• Follower targets that should not be misjudged as leading stocks

At the same time, clearly state:

• Conditions for the theme to continue strengthening
• Scenarios in which the leading status may be replaced
• Risk signals when the theme ebbs

Step 8: Integrate into a finished theme leader document

The final output should help users know "who is the core of this theme, why it is it, what stage it is currently in, and what to watch next." The main text should retain only structured conclusions and a tracking framework.

Output structure

---

Theme Leader Identification ({YYYY-MM-DD})

I. 30-second conclusion

• Current theme leader: {name}
• Current core troop: {name}
• Theme stage: {launch / strengthening / diffusion / ebb}
• Reason most worth tracking: {one sentence}

II. Theme structure overview

Stock	Theme role	Recognizability	Driving effect	Industry mapping	Current judgment
{Target 1}	{leader/core troop/follower/fell out}	{high/medium/low}	{high/medium/low}	{strong/medium/weak}	{explanation}
{Target 2}	{role}	{level}	{level}	{level}	{explanation}

III. Breakdown of core targets

{stock name}

• Why it is core: {content}
• Theme mapping strength: {content}
• Capital and trading characteristics: {content}
• The most critical follow-up points to watch: {content}
• Leading stock failure signals: {content}

IV. Judgment of the theme stage

• Driving logic: {content}
• Characteristics of the current stage: {content}
• More likely direction of subsequent evolution: {content}

V. Risk warnings

• {risk1}
• {risk2}
• {risk3}

---

Quality requirements

1. Role stratification must cover the leader, the core force, the followers, and the laggards.
2. The leader cannot be defined solely by ranking of gains.
3. It must explain the theme stage and the evolution of its internal structure.
4. It must explain whether the industry mapping and the capital leadership are consistent.
5. The output should serve hot spot tracking and mainline judgment, rather than merely introducing the theme.