Data dependencies and execution prerequisites
It is recommended to use Wind wind-mcp-skill to obtain the underlying data. Before execution, first check whether there is already a local wind-mcp-skill; if not, prompt the user to install:
# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
# Gitee 镜像（国内）
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
Skill positioning
This skill is used to track changes in the heat of a certain theme, answering "is this theme hot right now, where does the heat come from, is it leader-driven or comprehensively diffusing, and has it already begun to become crowded or ebb." The output focus is not simply listing related news, but helping users judge the stage the theme is in, and whether they should continue tracking, participate at an opportune time, or reduce attention.
Execution process
Step 1: Define the theme boundary and observation period
First clarify what the theme to be tracked this time is, and define the boundary clearly:
- What is the core narrative corresponding to the theme name
- Which companies are core beneficiaries, and which are only marginal mappings
- Whether to observe a single theme or compare multiple similar themes
- Whether to look at intraday heat, weekly heat, or staged heat evolution
If the theme boundary is vague, first distinguish the core list from the marginal list to avoid mixing unrelated targets into the heat judgment.
Step 2: Establish a multi-dimensional observation framework for theme heat
Heat should not be judged only by price rises and falls; it needs to be comprehensively judged from multiple dimensions:
- The relative strength of the theme's core targets and follower targets
- The number of advancing stocks within the theme, sustainability, and completeness of the tier structure
- Whether trading activity rises in sync
- Whether news, policies, and industry developments continue to provide new catalysts
- Whether market discussion heat is concentrated and continuously strengthening
The goal of this stage is to confirm whether the heat truly exists, rather than drawing conclusions based only on the performance of a few leaders.
Step 3: Judge the stage the theme is in
Based on market performance and changes in the information flow, judge which stage the theme is currently closer to:
- Initiation stage: a few leading targets move first, and the market begins to take notice
- Strengthening stage: core targets continue to strengthen, and the logic is repeatedly verified
- Diffusion stage: mid-tier, second-line, and marginal mapping targets generally benefit
- Crowding stage: trading becomes overheated, branches generalize, and pressure to cash out rises
- Ebb stage: theme heat weakens, with only a few strong stocks still maintaining performance
Stage judgments must have a clear basis and cannot use only emotional expressions.
Step 4: Identify the source of heat and the conditions for continuation
Further explain why the theme is hot, and what conditions are still needed for it to continue being hot:
- Whether it is policy stimulus, industry progress, earnings realization, or market style support
- Whether the current catalyst is a one-time event or a mainline that can be continuously verified
- Whether the heat has already moved from narrative to earnings support
- If there are no new catalysts later, whether the heat is likely to fall back quickly
Step 5: Judge crowding and the possibility of risk release
The common problem with hot themes is not "whether there is logic," but "whether it is already too crowded." Focus on explaining:
- Whether core targets have already clearly front-run
- Whether marginal targets have been excessively extrapolated
- Whether the theme's gains and trading volume show expansion detached from fundamental logic
- Once sentiment pulls back, which segments will come under pressure first
Step 6: Produce the final theme heat tracking draft
The final output should help users quickly judge whether a theme is worth continuing to track, waiting for disagreement, doing high-low switching, or temporarily avoiding. The main text should retain only stage judgment, driver explanation, crowding risk, and follow-up observation points.
Output structure
{Theme Name} Heat Tracking ({YYYY-MM-DD})
I. 30-Second Conclusion
- Current heat level: {High / Medium / Low}
- Stage: {Launch / Strengthening / Diffusion / Crowded / Ebbing}
- Source of heat: {One sentence}
- Current recommendation: {Continue tracking / Prioritize the core / Guard against crowding / Do not chase highs for now}
II. Theme Scope Definition
- Core logic: {Content}
- Core targets: {Content}
- Peripheral mapping targets: {Content}
III. Heat Observation Panel
| Dimension | Current status | Judgment |
|---|---|---|
| Strength of core targets | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Diffusion of follower targets | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Trading activity | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| New catalyst supply | {Content} | {Judgment} |
| Market discussion level | {Content} | {Judgment} |
IV. Heat Drivers and Conditions for Continuation
- Current strongest driver: {Content}
- Conditions for further strengthening: {Content}
- Most likely reasons for losing momentum: {Content}
V. Crowding Level and Risk Alerts
- Signs of crowding: {Content}
- Segments most likely to ebb first: {Content}
- Misjudgments to avoid: {Content}
VI. Follow-Up Observation Checklist
- {Observation Point 1}
- {Observation Point 2}
- {Observation Point 3}
Quality requirements
- Theme heat analysis must place "price performance, diffusion level, catalyst supply, and crowding level" under the same framework.
- It must distinguish between core beneficiaries and peripheral mapping to avoid unlimited expansion of the theme's scope.
- Stage judgments should be based on evidence and not merely on emotional wording.
- It is necessary to write both continuation conditions and ebbing risks, avoiding one-sided conclusions.
- The output should serve hot spot tracking and rotation judgment, rather than a simple hot spot summary.