pead_opportunity_skill

PEAD Opportunity Skill

Data Dependencies and Execution Prerequisites

Wind is recommended for wind-mcp-skill to obtain the underlying data. Before execution, first check whether wind-mcp-skillis already available locally; if not, prompt the user to install:

# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

# Gitee 镜像（国内）
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

Skill Positioning

This skill is used to identify opportunities that, after an earnings release, do not only react on the first day but continue to slowly reprice in the same direction over a subsequent period. The output focus is not to explain why the stock rose or fell on the earnings day, but to determine whether expectation revisions are still continuing, whether the market has not yet fully digested the new information, and which names are more likely to experience subsequent drift.

Function Overview

The core function of this skill is to identify short- to medium-term opportunities worth tracking in post-earnings drift.

It emphasizes combining earnings information increment, expectation revision magnitude, first-day reaction degree, subsequent price-volume performance, and sector validation to help users capture continuation opportunities after earnings that occur beyond the first day.

Use Cases

• After an earnings announcement, the user wants to look for tracking opportunities lasting from several days to several weeks.
• The first-day reaction has passed, and it is necessary to judge whether there is still room for a second entry.
• After earnings season, the team needs to organize names that continue to outperform.
• Researchers want to distinguish between a one-day reaction and continued drift repricing.

Working Principles

1. The key to drift opportunities is that market digestion is incomplete; one cannot look only at the first-day price change.
2. Fundamental revisions and price continuation must be analyzed together; neither can be omitted.
3. The time window for drift continuation and the invalidation boundary must be given.
4. If the first day has already overextended, the subsequent drift probability should be lowered.
5. Do not explicitly describe internal tool details in the main text.

Execution Process

Step 1: Confirm the earnings event and observation window

First clarify which earnings events this analysis covers, and whether the observation is:

• Short-term drift 2-5 days after earnings
• Medium-term continuation 1-4 weeks after earnings
• A post-earnings trend group in a certain sector
• Or persistent strength-weakness divergence among the user's watchlist stocks

The time window must be set first; otherwise it is easy to conflate the behavior of different stages.

Step 2: Assess the magnitude of expectation revision brought by the earnings report

The essence of PEAD is that the market digests new information in stages. First determine:

• Which core expectations this earnings report actually revised
• Whether the revision is slight, obvious, or a structural change
• Whether sell-side views, market discussion, and sector narratives have been revised upward in sync
• Whether the new information is sufficient to change earnings or growth expectations for the next several quarters

Without a sufficiently strong expectation revision, it is difficult to support a genuine drift move.

Step 3: Judge whether the first-day reaction still leaves room

Drift opportunities often occur in scenarios where good news appears but the first-day price has not fully reflected it. Focus on:

• Whether the first-day gain is reasonable relative to the magnitude of the earnings surprise
• Whether first-day volume indicates that new funds are just beginning to enter, or a one-time realization
• Whether there is a possibility of a gap up and pullback but subsequent steady strengthening
• If the first day was already extremely euphoric, whether subsequent drift may be compressed

Step 4: Track price and volume behavior in the days after the earnings release

True drift is not a first-day spike, but continued gradual strengthening afterward. Observe:

• Whether there is several consecutive days of relative strength versus the market and sector
• Whether pullbacks are mild and whether funds continue to absorb supply
• Whether the trading volume structure is steadily expanding or rapidly decaying
• Whether the market is gradually internalizing the new valuation and new expectations into price

Step 5: Check sector and peer validation

Post-earnings drift is usually not an isolated phenomenon. Also judge:

• Whether companies in the same industry also show similar expectation revisions
• Whether industry conditions support continued reinforcement of this earnings information
• Whether sector funds are willing to keep allocating to this direction
• Whether the stock has a leader premium or an independent logic

Step 6: Provide candidate ranking and suitable tracking methods

Divide candidates into:

• Key targets with clear drift opportunities
• Intermediate targets that were strong on the first day but still need to be watched for continuation
• Cautious targets with an overreaction on the first day or insufficient follow-through afterward

And for each key target, clearly state:

• The source of the drift logic
• The time window still available for observation
• Whether it is more suitable for tracking, waiting for a pullback, or not participating for now

Step 7: Define the boundaries of invalidation

Once a PEAD opportunity fails, it usually fails very clearly. Must clearly state:

• What kind of pullback means the market has finished pricing
• Which price-volume behaviors indicate the drift logic has been interrupted
• Which new negative information would overturn the positive post-earnings revision

Step 8: Consolidate into a finished post-earnings drift report

The final output should help users know "which post-earnings opportunities are not just a first-day move, but a sustained repricing worth continuing to track." The main text should retain only conclusions, evidence, and time windows.

Output structure

---

Post-Earnings Drift Opportunity Screening ({YYYY-MM-DD})

1. 30-Second Conclusion

• Most likely drift targets:{name list}
• Drift drivers:{expectation upgrade / guidance strengthening / sector validation / pricing not complete}
• Current stage assessment:{forming / already continuing / nearing completion}
• Main invalidation risk:{one sentence}

2. Candidate Pool Overview

Stock	Magnitude of expectation revision	Whether first-day pricing was sufficient	Signs of subsequent continuation	Invalidation risk	Priority
{Target 1}	{High/Medium/Low}	{Insufficient/Average/Relatively sufficient}	{Strong/Medium/Weak}	{High/Medium/Low}	{A/B/C}
{Target 2}	{Level}	{Level}	{Level}	{Level}	{Level}

3. Key Candidate Breakdown

{Stock Name}

• Main post-earnings revision line:{content}
• Why it is still not fully priced:{content}
• Current signs of continuation:{content}
• Suitable tracking window:{content}
• Failure Boundary: {content}

IV. Follow-up Verification Checklist

• {verification point 1}
• {verification point 2}
• {verification point 3}

V. Risk Notice

• {risk 1}
• {risk 2}
• {risk 3}

---

Quality Requirements

1. Must explain "why drift occurs"; cannot only say that the first-day gain was not large enough.
2. Need to clarify the adequacy of first-day pricing and the subsequent observation window.
3. Need to distinguish between post-earnings momentum and post-earnings drift.
4. Need to provide clear invalidation conditions to avoid indefinitely extending the logic.
5. Output should serve ongoing short- to medium-term tracking, rather than staying at a review of the earnings release day.