Data dependencies and execution prerequisites
It is recommended to use Wind wind-mcp-skill to obtain the underlying data. Before execution, first check whether there is already wind-mcp-skilllocally; if not, prompt the user to install:
# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
# Gitee 镜像（国内）
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
Skill positioning
This skill is used to determine the overall state the market is currently in and answer "whether now is suitable for offense, suitable for defense, suitable for selecting individual stocks, or whether the pace needs to be reduced; whether the market state is switching; and what is driving such a switch." The output focus is not a simple bullish or bearish call, but rather providing a market tier, an evidence framework, switching clues, and position implications.
Execution process
Step 1: Confirm the observation window and decision purpose
First clarify what decision this judgment serves:
- It is to judge the overall position
- It is to choose growth, value, cyclical, or defensive style
- It is for a weekly strategy update
- It is to address pace issues caused by recent state changes
At the same time, confirm whether the observation window is short-term, medium-term, or a phased framework. If the user does not specify, proceed by default according to the "current phase market state."
Step 2: Establish a market state judgment framework
Market tiering cannot rely only on index gains and losses; it needs to integrate the following levels:
- Index trend and key levels
- Market breadth and participation
- Whether the leading direction is clear
- Sentiment temperature and crowding level
- Macroeconomic environment, liquidity, and policy background
- Whether earnings expectations or the financial reporting main line support the current market
The goal at this stage is to build a complete framework sufficient to support tiering judgments.
Step 3: Classify the market state
After sufficient evidence, classify the market roughly into one of the following states:
- Offensive phase: risk appetite rises, the main line is clear, and diffusion is good
- Defensive phase: risk-aversion preference rises, and funds concentrate in low-volatility directions
- Oscillating phase: the main line is unclear, rotation is fast, and divergence is large
- Transition phase: the original main line loosens, and the new direction is still forming
When classifying, evidence must be given rather than only drawing a conclusion.
Step 4: Explain the primary and secondary causes of the state's formation
Further explain why the current state has formed, prioritizing the decomposition of:
- Whether the macroeconomic and policy environment supports risk appetite
- Whether capital conditions and style preferences have changed
- Whether breadth, sentiment, and the main line mutually verify each other
- If the state is switching, where the starting point of the switch comes from
Step 5: Identify state-switching signals and invalidation conditions
The most important thing for phase judgment is trackability, so it is necessary to clarify:
- Which signals can confirm that the current state continues to hold
- Which changes mean the state may switch
- Which risks would cause the current judgment to quickly become invalid
- If the judgment becomes invalid, which tier the market is more likely to switch to
Step 6: Form a finalized market state tiering draft
The final output should help users quickly know "what posture should be used to face the market now." The main text should retain only the state classification, evidence explanation, switching signals, and position-level implications.
Output structure
Market Regime Assessment ({YYYY-MM-DD})
I. 30-Second Conclusion
- Current market regime: {Offense / Defense / Choppy / Transition}
- Core evidence: {one sentence}
- The most suitable response right now: {content}
- Biggest risk point: {content}
II. Regime Judgment Panel
| Dimension | Current State | Implication for the Regime Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Index Trend | {content} | {judgment} |
| Market Breadth | {content} | {judgment} |
| Main Line Clarity | {content} | {judgment} |
| Sentiment Temperature | {content} | {judgment} |
| Macro/Liquidity Environment | {content} | {judgment} |
| Earnings Expectation Support | {content} | {judgment} |
III. Interpretation of the Current State
- Why this regime: {content}
- Primary cause: {content}
- Secondary cause: {content}
IV. Transition Signals
- Conditions for maintaining the current state: {content}
- Leading signals that may indicate a transition: {content}
- Signs that the judgment has failed: {content}
V. Position and Style Implications
- Total position implication: {content}
- Style preference implication: {content}
- Actions to avoid: {content}
VI. Follow-Up Watchlist
- {observation point 1}
- {observation point 2}
- {observation point 3}
Quality Requirements
- Market regime judgments must be based on multidimensional evidence and cannot be determined solely by index gains or losses.
- The three levels of the current regime, the reasons it formed, and the transition conditions must be clearly stated.
- Breadth, sentiment, main lines, and the macro backdrop need to be placed within the same framework to improve consistency.
- If the state is not yet clear, it should be explicitly written as "in transition" or "choppy" rather than being forced into a category.
- The output must directly serve total position and style choices, rather than remaining at the level of macro generalization.