asa-roas-analysis

Apple Search Ads ROAS Analysis

You are an Apple Search Ads analyst. Join ASA spend with RevenueCat attributed revenue to find true keyword, campaign, and search-term profitability — not just CPI.

Why ASA ROAS Is Different

ASA reports installs and spend natively, but revenue lives in RevenueCat. Without the join:

• Low-CPI keywords may attract free-trial churners
• High-CPI brand terms may drive the highest LTV subscribers
• You pause winners and scale losers

This skill produces profit-ranked tables with specific pause/scale actions.

Prerequisites

Before pulling data, verify integrations:

Check	MCP Tool
ASA connected	asa_credentials_status
RevenueCat connected	rc_overview with rc_key + rc_project
Playbook readiness	asa_playbook_status

Read app-ads-context.md for target CPA, LTV, and geo focus.

Blockers: If ASA or RC not connected, list what's missing and stop — don't guess profitability from ASA spend alone.

Data Pull

Primary profitability join

asa_profitability
  rc_key: "<sk_xxx>"
  level: keyword          # or campaign | adgroup | search_term | country
  days: 14
  currency: USD
  min_spend: 10
  insights: true

Parameter	When to change
level: keyword	Weekly optimization, bid decisions
level: campaign	Budget reallocation across campaign types
level: adgroup	CPP/CPS performance comparison
level: search_term	Negative keyword candidates
level: country	Geo ROAS before expansion
days: 7	Recent changes, fresh creative tests
days: 30	Stable LTV apps, sufficient volume
min_spend: 20	Filter noise on low-spend terms

Supporting context

rc_overview
  rc_key: "<sk_xxx>"
  rc_project: "<proj_xxx>"

rc_attribution_summary
  rc_key: "<sk_xxx>"
  rc_project: "<proj_xxx>"

Use rc_overview for MRR and subscription health baseline. Use rc_attribution_summary to compare ASA share vs. other media sources.

Metrics to Report

Metric	Formula	Good benchmark (subscription)
Spend	ASA report	—
Attributed revenue	RC join	—
ROAS	revenue / spend	> 1.0 break-even; > 1.5 scale
Profit	revenue - spend	Positive on brand + category
CPA	spend / conversions	< 0.5× LTV to scale
CPT	spend / taps	Varies by category
CVR	installs / taps	> 30% investigate if below
TTR	taps / impressions	> 5% strong

Important: Compare ROAS to targets in app-ads-context.md, not generic benchmarks. A 0.9× ROAS app with 60% margins may still be profitable.

Analysis Workflow

Step 1 — Summary

Report total spend, attributed revenue, blended ROAS, and profit for the period. State whether ASA is net profitable.

Step 2 — Rank by profit

Sort keywords/campaigns by profit (not ROAS alone). A keyword with $200 profit at 1.2× ROAS beats one with $20 profit at 3.0× ROAS.

Step 3 — Segment by campaign type

Campaign type	Expected ROAS	Action if below
Brand	Highest (1.5–3.0×)	Investigate product page CVR
Category	Medium (0.8–1.5×)	Test CPP routing
Competitor	Lower (0.5–1.0×)	Tighten bids, add negatives
Discovery	Variable	Mine search terms, promote winners

Step 4 — Flag bleeders

Keywords/search terms meeting all:

• ROAS < 1.0 (or below user's target)
• Spend > min_spend threshold
• Sufficient data (7+ days, 20+ taps)

→ Recommend pause or bid reduction. Route negatives to asa-negative-keywords.

Step 5 — Flag scalers

Keywords with:

• ROAS > 1.5× (or above user target)
• Impression share < 50% (if available)
• Stable CVR over 7+ days

→ Recommend bid increase 10–15%. Route to asa-admaxxing for playbook validation.

Scale Gate

Before recommending budget increases:

asa_review_country_gate
  app_id: "<apple_app_id>"
  min_rating: 4.5

Block scale if App Store rating is below threshold for the target country. Low ratings crush CVR — scaling spend wastes budget.

Interpretation Guide

Pattern	Diagnosis	Action
High TTR, low CVR	Product page mismatch	Test CPP (aso-skills custom-product-pages)
Low TTR, decent CVR	Keyword irrelevant or weak creative	Pause or add negative
High spend, 0 RC revenue	Attribution gap or bad traffic	Check RC ASA attributes; add negative
Brand ROAS < 1.0	Serious onboarding/paywall issue	aso-skills paywall-optimization, not more bids
Discovery terms profitable	Promote to exact match campaign	asa-weekly-optimization

Output Template

# ASA ROAS Report — [App Name] — [Period]

## Summary
- Total spend: $___
- Attributed revenue: $___
- ROAS: ___×
- Net profit: $___
- Profitable: Yes / No
- MRR context: $___ ([active subs] subs)

## Top performers (by profit)
| Keyword | Spend | Revenue | ROAS | Profit | Action |
|---------|-------|---------|------|--------|--------|
| | | | | | Scale +10% |

## Bleeders (pause candidates)
| Keyword | Spend | Revenue | ROAS | Profit | Action |
|---------|-------|---------|------|--------|--------|
| | | | | | Pause / -15% bid |

## Search term insights
- [N] terms flagged for negatives → `asa-negative-keywords`
- [N] terms to promote to exact match

## By campaign type
| Type | Spend | ROAS | Verdict |
|------|-------|------|---------|
| Brand | | | |
| Category | | | |
| Competitor | | | |
| Discovery | | | |

## Recommendations
1. [Specific action with keyword ID and bid change]
2. [Specific action]

## Do NOT scale until
- [blocker from country gate or data volume]

Data Volume Warnings

Tell the user when data is insufficient:

Signal	Minimum for keyword decisions
Keyword bid change	$20+ spend, 7+ days
Campaign budget change	$100+ spend, 14+ days
Geo expansion	50+ conversions in home geo
ROAS trend call	30+ days or 100+ installs

Cross-Skill Handoffs

Finding	Route to
Automated scale/pause recs	asa-admaxxing
Weekly bid/keyword ops	asa-weekly-optimization
Wasted search terms	asa-negative-keywords
Low CVR on high-intent terms	aso-skills custom-product-pages, ab-test-store-listing
All-channel profitability	campaign-profitability

Related Skills

• aso-skills apple-search-ads — campaign structure, match types, bidding strategy
• asa-admaxxing — automated scale recommendations
• asa-weekly-optimization — weekly keyword operations
• asa-negative-keywords — block wasted search terms
• subscription-snapshot — MRR and LTV baseline
• campaign-profitability — all-channel view

See revenuecat.md for RC metrics reference.