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macro-weekly-briefing

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Updated 10-15 19:55

About this skill

Securities Macro Researcher Weekly Report Generation Skill

Overview

This skill aims to simulate the weekly report writing workflow of a professional securities macro researcher, through thewithin one weeksystematic review of macroeconomic data, policy developments, market sentiment, and major asset class performance, generating a rigorously structured, logically coherent, and clearly arguedMacro Weekly Briefing。

Unlike daily reports, weekly reports focus more on **"confirmation of trends"、"logical coherence"and"forward-looking views for next week"**. The report style is close to that of a sell-side chief macro analyst, emphasizing connecting weekly high-frequency data into a macro narrative and providing clear investment strategy recommendations.

Data Acquisition Strategy

Core Data Source: gildata-aidata

All domestic macro data, policies, sentiment, liquidity, and market data are preferentially obtained through the gildata-aidata service.

Data Requirement Recommended Tool Description
Macro Data MacroIndustryEDB Query economic indicators such as China macro, industry economy, and international macro (supports weekly/monthly data)
Policy Meetings PolicyMeetingsList Domestic economic and financial policy meeting developments and content
Official Speeches OfficialSpeechEventList Speeches and activity information of important domestic and foreign officials
Laws and Regulations LawsRegulations Laws and regulations information, filtered by type and keywords
Macro Sentiment MacroNewslist Macro sentiment, filtered by region and sentiment type for economic forecasts and events
Macro Analysis Views MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints Analytical views on macro dimensions such as GDP, CPI, PMI, and policy in research reports
Fund Flows StockMarketCapitalFlow Statistical data on capital inflows and outflows in the stock market
Northbound Funds HSGTTradeStats Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Stock Connect market trading statistics (Northbound/Southbound funds)
Margin Trading Data MarginTradeStats Statistical data such as margin financing and securities lending balances, purchase amounts, and sales volumes
Index Interval Market Data IndexRangeQuotation A-share index interval market data (for weekly reports, to obtain weekly gains/losses)
Bond Market Data MostActiveRateBondQuotation Yields and gains/losses of the most active interest rate bonds
Overseas Markets web_search Supplementary queries on the Federal Reserve, overseas inflation, US Treasuries, etc. (when Gildata coverage is insufficient)

Data Acquisition Priority

  1. Domestic Macro and Policy: Prioritize MacroIndustryEDB + PolicyMeetingsList + OfficialSpeechEventList
  2. Sentiment and Views: Prioritize MacroNewslist + MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints
  3. Funds and Market Data: Prioritize StockMarketCapitalFlow + HSGTTradeStats + IndexRangeQuotation + MostActiveRateBondQuotation
  4. Overseas Data: Use web_search for supplementary queries (such as the latest Federal Reserve decisions, US Treasury yields, etc.)

Execution Process

Phase 1: Data Collection and Monitoring

  1. This Week's Macro Data Retrieval

    • Tool：gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB
    • Query Example： 
      调用 gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB
query: "PMI CPI PPI 社融 信贷 M1 M2 进出口 工业增加值 社零 固投"
time_range: "本周" 或 "最近 7 天"
    • Key Focus: Monthly data released this week (such as PMI, CPI, social financing, etc.) and high-frequency data trends.

  2. Tracking Policy Developments This Week

    • Tools：gildata-aidata PolicyMeetingsList + OfficialSpeechEventList + LawsRegulations
    • Query Examples： 
      调用 gildata-aidata PolicyMeetingsList
查询本周政策会议动态

调用 gildata-aidata OfficialSpeechEventList
查询央行行长、发改委官员等本周讲话
    • Key Focus: Important statements this week from the central bank (OMO, MLF, LPR), the Ministry of Finance, the State Council Executive Meeting, the NDRC, the CSRC, etc.

  3. Market Sentiment and Liquidity Conditions This Week

    • Tools：gildata-aidata MacroNewslist + MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints + StockMarketCapitalFlow + HSGTTradeStats + MarginTradeStats
    • Query Examples： 
      调用 gildata-aidata MacroNewslist
query: "宏观经济 政策 最新舆情"

调用 gildata-aidata StockMarketCapitalFlow
获取本周资金流向统计

调用 gildata-aidata HSGTTradeStats
获取北向资金周度数据

调用 gildata-aidata MarginTradeStats
获取融资融券周度数据
    • Key Focus: Capital flows (northbound/southbound, ETF, margin balance), market sentiment, and hot topics in public opinion.

  4. Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes

    • Tools：gildata-aidata IndexRangeQuotation + MostActiveRateBondQuotation
    • Query Examples： 
      调用 gildata-aidata IndexRangeQuotation
获取上证、创业板、沪深 300 等指数周涨跌幅

调用 gildata-aidata MostActiveRateBondQuotation
获取 10Y 国债等最活跃券收益率周变动
    • Supplement: Exchange rates and commodities (crude oil, gold) can be supplemented using web_search .

Phase Two: Logical Analysis and Assessment

  1. Weekly Logical Linkage

    • Identify the core主线 of market trading this week (such as "rising expectations for broad credit," "overseas recession trade dominance," "reflation trade," etc.).
    • Analyze how data and policy validate or invalidate this main line.

  2. Expectation Gap and Trend Confirmation

    • Compare actual data this week with the market consensus and identify data points that beat or miss expectations.
    • Combined with data trends over several consecutive weeks, confirm the position in the economic cycle (recovery, overheating, stagflation, recession).

  3. Asset Pricing Mapping and Review

    • Equities: Review of the interplay between the numerator side (earnings expectations) and the denominator side (risk-free rate, risk premium).
    • Bonds: Resonance or divergence between fundamentals (weak reality) and liquidity conditions (monetary easing).
    • FX: A comprehensive reflection of the China-U.S. interest rate differential, trade balance, and the central bank's stance.
    • Commodities: The superposition of supply-demand mismatch, financial attributes (U.S. dollar/interest rates), and geopolitical premium.

Phase Three: Report Generation

  1. Generate a Markdown-format report

Use the following standard template to generate the final report:

# 宏观周报 | [YYYY-MM-DD] ~ [YYYY-MM-DD] [一句话核心观点]

> **分析师**：AI 宏观研究团队  
> **报告日期**：YYYY-MM-DD  
> **本周关键词**：[例如：再通胀 / 宽信用 / 衰退交易 / 政策博弈]  
> **市场情绪**：🟢 乐观 / 🟡 中性 / 🔴 谨慎  
> **核心逻辑**：[简述本周市场交易的核心主线及下周展望。例如：“本周宏观数据验证‘弱现实+强预期’组合，市场交易主线围绕‘上游资源通胀’与‘红利防守’展开，下周重点关注美联储议息会议及国内政治局会议定调……"]

---

## 一、 核心观点与下周策略建议

**1.1 周度宏观全景**
（总结本周宏观数据、政策及市场表现的核心特征，指出主要矛盾。例如：“本周公布的 3 月 CPI 低于预期，核心通胀依然疲软，印证了内需修复尚需时日，但社融超预期回暖显示宽信用正在发力……"）

**1.2 下周策略展望**
（基于宏观判断，给出下周大类资产配置建议及重点关注方向。例如：“下周建议维持‘股强债弱’判断，超配上游资源品，关注政治局会议对地产政策的定调……"）

---

## 二、 本周宏观数据全景

| 指标 | 本周最新值 | 前值 | 预期值 | 周度趋势 | 信号解读 |
|------|------------|------|--------|----------|----------|
| 官方制造业 PMI | | | | | |
| 财新服务业 PMI | | | | | |
| CPI 同比 | | | | | |
| PPI 同比 | | | | | |
| 社融增量 | | | | | |
| 新增人民币贷款 | | | | | |

**数据深度点评**：
*   **超预期项**：（分析哪些数据好于预期，驱动了什么逻辑，如“社融超预期主要由政府债支撑”）
*   **不及预期项**：（分析哪些数据低于预期，暴露了什么隐患，如“信贷结构中票据冲量明显”）
*   **高频趋势**：（结合本周高频数据验证宏观逻辑，如“高炉开工率连续三周回升验证生产修复”）

---

## 三、 本周政策动态与解读

**3.1 国内政策**
*   **[政策名称/事件]**：（简述政策内容）
    *   **解读**：（分析政策意图、力度、受益方向及潜在风险。例如：“央行开展 5000 亿 MLF 操作，利率维持不变，符合预期，但缩量续作显示央行对资金空转的警惕……"）

**3.2 海外政策**
*   **[美联储/欧央行等]**：（简述最新动态）
    *   **解读**：（分析对美元指数、美债收益率及国内货币政策的溢出效应）

---

## 四、 资金面与市场舆情

**4.1 资金流向与流动性**
*   **央行操作**：本周公开市场累计净投放/回笼 [金额] 亿元，资金面 [宽松/平衡/收敛]。
*   **外资流向**：北向资金周度净买入/卖出 [金额] 亿元，主要流向 [板块/行业]。
*   **杠杆资金**：融资余额周度增加/减少 [金额] 亿元，杠杆资金情绪 [高涨/低迷]。

**4.2 舆情热点**
*   **热点一**：[事件描述] -> **市场反应**：[板块异动/情绪变化]
*   **热点二**：[事件描述] -> **机构观点**：[主流券商看法汇总]

---

## 五、 大类资产周度表现与复盘

| 资产类别 | 指标 | 周涨跌幅 | 本周核心驱动逻辑 |
|---------|------|----------|------------------|
| **权益** | 上证指数 | | |
| | 创业板指 | | |
| | 恒生指数 | | |
| **债券** | 10Y 国债收益率 | | |
| | 10Y 美债收益率 | | |
| **汇率** | 美元兑人民币 (在岸) | | |
| | 美元指数 | | |
| **商品** | 布伦特原油 | | |
| | 现货黄金 | | |

**资产轮动分析**：
（分析股债商汇的联动关系，如“股债跷跷板效应显现”、“商品领涨反映通胀预期”、“美债收益率上行压制成长股估值”等）

---

## 六、 下周重要日程与前瞻

| 日期 | 国家/地区 | 重要数据/事件 | 市场预期/关注点 |
|------|-----------|---------------|-----------------|
| 周一 | | | |
| 周二 | | | |
| 周三 | | | |
| 周四 | | | |
| 周五 | | | |

**前瞻研判**：
（针对下周重点事件给出预判。例如：“周四公布的 CPI 数据预计回落，关注核心通胀能否企稳；周五美联储会议大概率按兵不动，需警惕鲍威尔新闻发布会的措辞变化……"）

---

## 七、 风险提示

*   [风险点 1]：如“海外通胀粘性超预期，美联储降息路径推迟”
*   [风险点 2]：如“国内地产销售修复不及预期，拖累信用扩张”
*   [风险点 3]：如“地缘政治冲突升级，能源价格剧烈波动”

---

*免责声明：本报告由 AI 自动生成，基于公开数据与宏观模型分析，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。*

Notes

  • Weekly Perspective: The weekly report must be based on **this week's (usually Monday to Friday)** data and news, focusing on summarizing the week's trend changes rather than single-day fluctuations.
  • gildata-aidata First: For all domestic macroeconomic data, policy, liquidity, and market queries, prioritize the gildata-aidata service; web_search is only used to supplement overseas policy and high-frequency detailed data.
  • Logical Coherence: Emphasize the intrinsic logical connections between data and policy, and construct a complete macro narrative (such as "data weakens -> policy expectations rise -> bond market rallies").
  • Strong Forward-Looking Nature: Must include a "Next Week's Important Calendar and Outlook" module to provide users with the next week's trading calendar and expectation management.
  • Expectation Gap Thinking: Focus on capturing deviations between data and the Wind/Bloomberg consensus (Expectation Gap), which is the core driving force of market trading.
  • Professional Terminology: Use standardized macroeconomic and financial market terminology (such as "broad credit", "term spread", "risk premium", "scissors gap", "peak shaving and valley filling", etc.).

Example Invocation

User input: "Generate this week's macroeconomic weekly report"

Skill execution:

  1. Retrieve macroeconomic data: gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB
  2. Retrieve policy meetings: gildata-aidata PolicyMeetingsList
  3. Retrieve official speeches: gildata-aidata OfficialSpeechEventList
  4. Retrieve laws and regulations: gildata-aidata LawsRegulations
  5. Retrieve macroeconomic public sentiment: gildata-aidata MacroNewslist + MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints
  6. Retrieve capital flows: gildata-aidata StockMarketCapitalFlow + HSGTTradeStats + MarginTradeStats
  7. Retrieve market data: gildata-aidata IndexRangeQuotation + MostActiveRateBondQuotation
  8. Supplement overseas data: web_search for the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasuries, etc.
  9. Write the report: generate a Markdown-format macroeconomic weekly report according to the template
  10. Output the report: display the full report content directly in the conversation

Skill Update Log

2026-05-11 Update：

  • Core Data Source Change: Changed macroeconomic data queries to prioritize the gildata-aidata service
  • Added Tool Matrix: Established a gildata-aidata tool query reference table for the macroeconomic weekly report (MacroIndustryEDB, PolicyMeetingsList, OfficialSpeechEventList, LawsRegulations, etc.)
  • Optimized Data Retrieval Order: Clarified that gildata-aidata is prioritized for domestic macroeconomics, policy, capital, and market data, while web_search is used only to supplement overseas policy details
  • Removed Single web_search Dependency: The original skill mainly relied on web_search; it now fully integrates the gildata-aidata professional macroeconomic and public sentiment databases

Skill Version：v2.0
Last Updated：2026-05-11
Maintainer: Dianjin Intelligent Assistant